.775 OPS in AAA, maybe.Originally Posted by dougdirt
He definitely won't OPS .775 next year as a Red, and certainly won't SLG North of .400. I'd be shocked if his SLG was higher than his OBP.
.775 OPS in AAA, maybe.
He definitely won't OPS .775 next year as a Red, and certainly won't SLG North of .400. I'd be shocked if his SLG was higher than his OBP.
You should consider applying for Walt's position.
I mean you speak so authoritatively about everything. Surely you could never be wrong on anything.
I think this is pretty optimistic considering he had a .713 OPS in AAA just this season. If I was a betting man I'd project something like this for Stubbs if he's an everyday MLB player in 2010: .250/.330/.375. The Reds can decide if his defense is good enough to support that.
Personally I don't know why you take that risk when there's another good defensive CF with a career .385 OBP on the roster, but I'm not Walt.
Agree, but I think those numbers for Stubbs may be optimistic.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Of course he hit his 8th HR as I was typing. I hope he keeps making me look bad (as if I need help).
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Paul Janish lite folks.
I'm wrong on plenty, trust me.
And when I'm wrong, I say I'm wrong.
As a Reds fan, I'd love nothing more than Drew Stubbs to make me wrong, but nothing points to that being the case so far.
Defense alone won't help the Reds turn the corner to put The Lost Decade in the rearview mirror. We need better pitching and plenty more offense.
The problem is that Drew Stubbs' best value is to remain a Red. If Stubbs had trade value, I imagine that Walt would have moved him by now, but Stubbs doesn't have much trade value given in the minors he was a low SLG decent/good OBP guy (aka no stick) who plays elite D. It's that lack of stick he displayed in the minors that offsets his value as a rangey gloveman in CF.
Methinks Stubbs' time with the Reds currently is attempting to increase trade value, as well as probably determining the future of Willy Taveras.
Give Janish and Stubbs 600 PA a piece in the same season, and Janish's numbers won't be that much worse than Stubbs'.
2010 will probably be that season. Stay tuned.
Stubbs just popped HR #8, this one to CF. It appeared to me the stroke was entirely powerless, and the ball carried by chance in a current of luck to a fortuitous location.
That was Stubbs worst SLG year by far. His OBP was fine in AAA. I think we have seen what he has done in the majors this year (now at 8 HR).... I think it would be pretty silly to project him at a .375 SLG given what his entire career tells us about him (roughly a .150 IsoP in pitching friendly environments in the minors outside of AAA, with a movement to the GABP).
FWIW, I reverse-engineered an expected line for Stubbs next season.
I used the following criteria:
25% K rate
2.0% HR rate
12% BB rate
50% BH rate (based on league average bunt%)
13% IFH rate
Then I used career average percentages for doubles and triples from the minors. I used league averages for LD%, GB%, FB%, IFFB%, etc. I am basing this off 600 plate appearances.
600 PA
72 BB
528 AB
150 K
366 Balls in Play
70 Line Drives (51 hits)
154 Groundballs (25 hits)
129 fly balls (20 hits)
14 IFFB (0 hits)
13 Bunts (6 hits) + (20 IF hits)
Based on xBABIP rates for batted balls (with adjustments made to the aforementioned peripherals), his xBABIP would be: (51+25+20+6+20) 122 hits / 366 BIP or .333
So, adding in 12 HR, 30 2B, 5 3B, his K's, BABIP and walks, here is his line:
.254 / .347 / .401 / .748
Again, that's based on 5% doubles, 1% triples, 2% homers, 12% walks, 25% strikeouts and league-average ball in play rates with exception only of infield and bunt hits (to which his speed will created slightly above-average rates in those categories). His career double rate is actually 5.3% so I was conservative in that estimate.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Stubbs career minor league IsoP was .132. I projected him at .125. I think that is far from silly.
Dickerson had slightly better minor league power than Stubbs (.414 career minor league SLG vs .401 for Stubbs), came up and smashed MLB late season to a greater degree than Stubbs has (.608 SLG last year). His 2009 SLG? .375.
BTW, here is the major league equivalent of Drew's work in AAA this year:
.230/.301/.304
As I said above I don't think he's going to be that bad, but I think it's reasonable to have doubts about his ability to hit an at acceptable level for a MLB starter.
I'd take that line with his defense. Although I'd prefer that Stubbs had 2/3 of the PA instead of 600 with Dickerson getting the rest of the PA in center and around 200+ PA in left.
I think people expected a dropoff from Dickerson but I, for one, don't think this season is a true indicator of what to expect of him next year either. The same is true for Stubbs. He won't hit 40 hrs (roughly his current pace for a full season) but I'm not putting him down for 5 hrs either. Maybe 10-15 hrs in 2010 and 20+ in 2011. We'll see what he does in spring training.
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