Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

[nate]

Not sure how you get flat out better. Very similair yet Leake is younger and cheaper

3 year total
Leake 30-22, 482.1, 3.77 ERA, 5.5 WAR (BR) - Leake career .600 OPS
Bailey 27-27, 476 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.7 WAR (BR) - Bailey career .368 OPS

2010-2013
fWAR
Leake: 4.7
Bailey: 8.9

IP
Leake: 620.2
Bailey: 585.0

FIP
Leake: 4.33
Bailey: 3.69

xFIP
Leake: 3.89
Bailey: 3.64

K/9
Leake: 5.92
Bailey: 7.88

BB/9
Leake: 2.32
Bailey: 2.42

HR/9
Leake: 1.19
Bailey: 1.02

GB%
Leake: 49.0%
Bailey: 43.9%

HR/FB
Leake: 13.7%
Bailey: 10.8%

I'm not sure about their hitting stats; it's not something I think adds value outside the margins for a pitcher. Leake definitely is younger though!

I'd have to say Homer is a notch above Leake.

I'm glad we have both.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I dont really want to trade our best pitcher; the guy I no question start in a one-game playoff we have to win. Bailey has as good of stuff as anyone on this staff. He's a sure thing, he has arrived. How about we trade Cueto or Leake? I'd rather even trade Cingrani than Homer right now.

[nate]

FIP isn't a predictor

Do you mean WAR?

[Ghosts of 1990]

Not sure how you get flat out better. Very similair yet Leake is younger and cheaper

Oh I'll tell you how. I've seen them both pitch about 60 times and one is far better than the other. One of them, hitters don't like to see on the upcoming slate I'm sure while the other they think they can get to and pad their stats - I guarantee big league hitters don't mind facing Leake; and he's done a great job this year of getting by being a pitcher, spotting up, locating, things he's always going to need to do to survive; but if you have to start Mike Leake in a postseason game against an elite team he's going to more often then not lose you the game. Bailey on the other hand has the plus stuff to beat anyone, any time on any field.

[Razor Shines]

Do you mean WAR?

Well I mentioned FIP in passing and he made it a point to let me know that FIP is a predictor. I don't know why when, yes, I was basing most of my opinion off of WAR.

As FAR as FIP, I guess I was wrong. I meant its not a predictor as in its not predicting future performance but yeah it is predicting what past performance could have been based on the 3 true outcomes. it does tell how well a pitcher has pitched in terms of what he can control.

And I know you already know all that, Nate.

[nate]

Well I mentioned FIP in passing and he made it a point to let me know that FIP is a predictor. I don't know why when, yes, I was basing most of my opinion off of WAR.

As FAR as FIP, I guess I was wrong. I meant its not a predictor as in its not predicting future performance but yeah it is predicting what past performance could have been based on the 3 true outcomes. it does tell how well a pitcher has pitched in terms of what he can control.

And I know you already know all that, Nate.

OK.

[corkedbat]

If I am trading Homer it would be to the Sox for Xander Bogarts or possibly to the Dodgers for Kemp + money. I doubt the Dodgers do that however.

Bogaerts and Bryce Brentz for Homer and a prospect

[50YrRedsFan]

According to an article on Reds.com today, Cueto hasn't even thrown a ball and no schedule has been set for him to start. That tells me we may not see him until September, and maybe not at all the rest of the year. If this turns out to be the situation, I don't see how we can even think of trading anyone in the starting rotation. With Marshall's injury not getting better, and with no trade to bring in anyone, we could be short handed quickly. Even if Cueto comes back before the end of the year, we will need to move Cingrani to the bullpen to fill in for Marshall. I don't really see us falling out of the last wild card spot. If we make it past the 1 game play in, we will need everyone we have now. If Marshall & Cueto can't make it to start next season, then who would you use? I am starting to think it would be better to trade injury prone Cueto if we can find a window when he is healthy, than to mess with Bailey.

[HokieRed]

According to an article on Reds.com today, Cueto hasn't even thrown a ball and no schedule has been set for him to start. That tells me we may not see him until September, and maybe not at all the rest of the year. If this turns out to be the situation, I don't see how we can even think of trading anyone in the starting rotation. With Marshall's injury not getting better, and with no trade to bring in anyone, we could be short handed quickly. Even if Cueto comes back before the end of the year, we will need to move Cingrani to the bullpen to fill in for Marshall. I don't really see us falling out of the last wild card spot. If we make it past the 1 game play in, we will need everyone we have now. If Marshall & Cueto can't make it to start next season, then who would you use? I am starting to think it would be better to trade injury prone Cueto if we can find a window when he is healthy, than to mess with Bailey.

Agree. All I can figure is that the Bailey traders want to see a lot of Reynolds the rest of the way.

[NebraskaRed]

According to an article on Reds.com today, Cueto hasn't even thrown a ball and no schedule has been set for him to start. That tells me we may not see him until September, and maybe not at all the rest of the year. If this turns out to be the situation, I don't see how we can even think of trading anyone in the starting rotation. With Marshall's injury not getting better, and with no trade to bring in anyone, we could be short handed quickly. Even if Cueto comes back before the end of the year, we will need to move Cingrani to the bullpen to fill in for Marshall. I don't really see us falling out of the last wild card spot. If we make it past the 1 game play in, we will need everyone we have now. If Marshall & Cueto can't make it to start next season, then who would you use? I am starting to think it would be better to trade injury prone Cueto if we can find a window when he is healthy.

He hasn't been throwing the ball, and they don't have him on any kind of schedule? That just strenghtens the the feeling I've had for awhile that we won't be seeing Cueto at all this season. If we do, it will be at least mid-September, if not the very end of the season, or even (knock on wood) the postseason. Hopefully Cingrani can hold up for the rest of the year.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Oh I'll tell you how. I've seen them both pitch about 60 times and one is far better than the other. One of them, hitters don't like to see on the upcoming slate I'm sure while the other they think they can get to and pad their stats - I guarantee big league hitters don't mind facing Leake; and he's done a great job this year of getting by being a pitcher, spotting up, locating, things he's always going to need to do to survive; but if you have to start Mike Leake in a postseason game against an elite team he's going to more often then not lose you the game. Bailey on the other hand has the plus stuff to beat anyone, any time on any field.

Agree entirely. Don't want to short-change Leake on a great season, but this is how 9 of 10 opposing batters would view it.

[RadfordVA]

Question for the people who would not trade bailey. Would you not trade bailey for jean segura? That's is what brewers got for months of grienke. Ideally the reds would get something similar back with bailey being under control for one season plus. Obviously there is no guarantee you get that value but also no guarantee bailey stays healthy. So using that as a known trade would you not trade bailey for segura? I would have to I believe. The amount of money you save over letting bailey go can help with other contracts.

[Ironman92]

Oh I'll tell you how. I've seen them both pitch about 60 times and one is far better than the other. One of them, hitters don't like to see on the upcoming slate I'm sure while the other they think they can get to and pad their stats - I guarantee big league hitters don't mind facing Leake; and he's done a great job this year of getting by being a pitcher, spotting up, locating, things he's always going to need to do to survive; but if you have to start Mike Leake in a postseason game against an elite team he's going to more often then not lose you the game. Bailey on the other hand has the plus stuff to beat anyone, any time on any field.

9 starts vs team over .500 and he's (0-6) avg 5 2/3 inn and era is 6.34

Is his stuff ever going to turn any of this around?

[bellhead]

Question for the people who would not trade bailey. Would you not trade bailey for jean segura? That's is what brewers got for months of grienke. Ideally the reds would get something similar back with bailey being under control for one season plus. Obviously there is no guarantee you get that value but also no guarantee bailey stays healthy. So using that as a known trade would you not trade bailey for segura? I would have to I believe. The amount of money you save over letting bailey go can help with other contracts.

That's the type of return the Reds will look for in the off season if Homer doesn't resign... The Reds will resign Bronson and roll with him the next 3 years. Would you trade Bailey for Jurickson Profar in the offseason?

It's a fair trade, a #2 starter for a stud SS prospect.... A good fit for both teams.

[nate]

9 starts vs team over .500 and he's (0-6) avg 5 2/3 inn and era is 6.34

Is his stuff ever going to turn any of this around?

I would be more concerned about record splits in tennis, a one on one sport; than baseball, a team sport.

I would similarly be more concerned about such a split over a career rather than a handful of innings during a season.

But that's just me! YMMV.