The proposed realignment could easily cost the Reds 5 runs defensively in 30 games.Originally Posted by Raisor
The proposed realignment could easily cost the Reds 5 runs defensively in 30 games.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
The Reds are EXTREMELY soild on defense everywhere on the field. My opinion is that they can afford a dip in the defense to get Stubbs out of the lineup in favor of Frazier.
which would leave the Reds up +5.
Only if you assume Stubbs and Frazier continue exactly as they have been to this point which truthfully is not a safe assumption.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
You can play to win or you can play not to lose.
I think the downside is way overstated in this thread. Frazier has played a lot of OF in the minor leagues. It was his best defensive position down there. He's played the other spots this year because Rolen was out for a long time and now Votto is. Bruce was exclusively a CF in the minors. Catching fly balls isn't that hard. These aren't untested guys that can't judge a fly ball that would be playing out there. Bruce won't be as good as Stubbs in CF, but I'd bet he would be nearly as good as Heisey is. There are few plays where Stubbs would make the play and Bruce would not. Bruce may actually be better on balls hit in front of him. Stubbs runs to the spot and plays it on the bounce most of the time.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Or you could say a 6 game lead with Votto coming back soon is a recipe that doesn't need more garlic.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I'm not worried about the regular season. I'm for prepping for the playoffs.
This is a better playoff team with Frazier in the lineup instead of Stubbs.
I would rather have a defensive alignment that made the pitching better for the playoffs than to have several players playing out of position in order to slightly improve the offense that is currently ranked 9th in the majors by wOBA and would be the third best offense in the playoffs if the season ended today (and benching Stubbs doesn't substantially close the gap between the Reds offense and those of the Yanks and Rangers).
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
In a short series, especially against elite pitching, run prevention is more valuable than run production. It's more likely bad defense will let a run in due to an downgrade at one position, than an offensive upgrade at one postion will score an additional run.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Sending Mes down for Navarro indicates that the Reds may be willing to give up some defense to get better bats on the team. I think Bruce playing center is on the table. I also think at least one of Valdez and Cairo do not make the playoff roster.
I'd argue the other way.
You can only win if you out score the other team.
You can play a perfect defensive game, but if you don't score you can't win.
Kind of late to make this move. If they are going to do it, I'd expect it to begin, like, tomorrow if not sooner, LOL.
I don't think the Reds are suddenly going to change Jay Bruce's position in October. Don't think that's real.
I guess they could try it once or twice in September when Votto comes back, but the team is kind of conservative in this way, just think it's unlikely at this point.
Reds face a lot of lefties now. Let's see how Stubbs does. He got hot the last time in Houston, this trip is Arizona and Houston.
THIS. All of this.
This is a great post. Stubbs biggest defensive asset is speed, and that is his main defensive asset. He is actually one of the worst centerfielders I have watched in terms of reading the ball off the bat. Hence a lot of those shallower balls you mention that he pulls up on. Stubbs is also below average around the wall, he tends to shy away from making contact with the outfield wall it seems, this negates his speed on some balls. Maybe it is just me, but how often do you see Stubbs get to a ball in GABP that most average CFers wouldn't get to?
Bruce gets great reads off the bat, but doesn't have quite the speed of Stubbs. Bruce is capable of playing a league average or above average defense in CF in our ballpark (not a ton of ground to cover). I have never seen Frazier play in RF, but he is athletic enough to be capable of playing a decent RF, now whether he has the other skills outside of athletic ability, I do not know.
The offensive trade off far outweighs the defensive trade off in my mind. Now if we are playing in a cavernous park, I leave Stubbs in CF.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
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