Reds Top Prospects- Midseason Edition

[Benihana]

When was the last time two big prospects were traded for each other?

Matt Garza for Delmon Young?


Also, it obviously didn't happen, but a little before your time there was much discussion on this board of a Adam Dunn for Josh Beckett swap when both were mere prospects. Again, just discussion, but it certainly was interesting.

[dougdirt]

Matt Garza for Delmon Young?


Also, it obviously didn't happen, but a little before your time there was much discussion on this board of a Adam Dunn for Josh Beckett swap when both were mere prospects. Again, just discussion, but it certainly was interesting.

Delmon Young had over 800 MLB PA when he was traded for Garza who had 133 MLB innings. Not quite prospects, much less ones who were traded before ever stepping foot on an MLB field.

[Kingspoint]

Alonso is destined to be traded. He's left-handed, he plays only one position--the one occupied by our best player--and he's on a major league contract. The writing is on the wall--the move of Frazier to LF being just further indication.

If Alonzo is traded anytime during the next 3 years, I'll buy you pizza every month for a year.

It ain't gonna happen.

[mth123]

Nice thread. My take:

A: Yonder Alonso - Will be a middle of the order run producer.

A- : Zach Stewart - Has a nice safety net in that he has shown the ability to pitch from the pen. He could be a starter for the top half of the rotation or possibly a closer. If he goes to the pen, he could make Cordero expendable sooner rather than later. That may be worth a ton of money to this franchise and could result in players returned for Cordero and money to spend in other areas. That may be more valuable than waiting until 2011 for him to be a starter.

B+: Chris Heisey - I love players with power who can play up the middle. I am against the Reds moving him to a corner. No need to squander the advantage of having an up the middle guy with a big bat. He has the defensive ability for center, he should play there. The Reds made the mistake with Dickerson and brought in a lesser player, now there is talk of making the same mistake with Heisey.

B+: Zach Cozart - Has the glove for SS and has shown some offensive potential. Position alone makes him valuable since he can actually play it.

B: Todd Frazier - Has enough bat to be an everyday player at any position he can handle. His versatility may work against him getting a regular role, but may make him more valuable. I happily go to war with a power bat that can play LF/3B/1B and, in a pinch, MI on the bench. Move him around and let him get 450 PAs.

B: Neftali Soto - Good hitter who swings too much. His defense and body beg questions as to whether he can stay at 3B.

B: Travis Wood - A big comeback in 2009. He still seems too little to me to be starter for the long haul, but he's doing good things and may be at peak value now.

B-: Drew Stubbs - Needs to develop some power to be a plus player. Can be a decent regular with his speed and defense but lack of power will erode his value and his OBP if pitchers don't have any fear of him. His first round status makes him above a C, mostly for trade value IMO.

B-: Chris Valaika - Can hit but has poor plate discipline. Won't be a SS and I still wonder if 2B would be a spot for him. Probably could be a supersub along the lines of how I described Frazier above, just a cut below. Definitely an asset to a team's bench.

B-: Jeremy Horst - Most under-rated pitcher in the organization right now. Call me shallow, but I'm more impressed with 6-4, 220 pound guy who has success than a guy below 6 feet.

B-: Jordan Smith - Another starter who could be in a major league rotation.

B-: Danny Dorn - Some smart team will let him be this generation's version of Matt Stairs. Probably won't be the Reds and I probably have too much value on him, because I doubt this organization cashes in.

B-: Juan Francisco - Power with K's and few walks. Has a thick body and has made many errors this year. May end up as Calvin Pickersing, I hope for more and hope his power gives him some trade value. I'm skeptical of him, but power is hard to find and the Reds could probably cash him in for something.

C+: Pedro Viola - Power lefties for the pen are hard to find and gather lots of interest. If his control improves he moves up to B/B+ range.

C+: Matt Fairel - Looks good, possibly should be higher. I'll wait and see.

C+: Juan Carlos Sulbarren - the homers scare the heck out of me. The fuss in the spring gives him some value.

C+: Maloney/Lecure/Ramirez - Near ready starters who provide depth and trade flexability. That's valuable.

C+: Fisher/Roenicke/Manuel/Ondrusek/Thurman - All guys who should be able to hold down roles in the middle of the pen. Fisher and Roenicke in particular have late inning potential.

C: David Sappelt - Could be an over-achiever and has done ok so far. I would need to see more to go any higher.

C-: Sean Henry - Could be a player who adds some speed, some power, and adequate defense at the end of a bench somewhere.

D: Devin Mesoraco - I'm not a believer.

Could Surprise - Logan Parker, Jake Kahaulelio, Justin Reed, Denis Phipps, Ben Jukich, Craig Tatum, Wes Bankston, James Avery. Sean Watson, Matt Klinker, Kevin Coddington, Miguel Rojas, Cody Puckett

Incomplete: Alex Bucholz, Mike Leake, Brad Boxberger, Byron Wiley, Josh Felhauer, Andrew Means, Jose Gauldron, Shane Carlson. Scott Carroll,

Too young to rate: Hamilton/Duran/Rodriguez/Guillon/Arias/Valor

???? - Kyle Lotzkar, Daryl Thompson, Dallas Buck

[Benihana]

No Josh Ravin, mth?

[dougdirt]

My take:
D: Devin Mesoraco - I'm not a believer.

Gotta ask why you aren't a believer? What do you see that makes you think he is at best the Reds 27th best prospect?

[mth123]

Gotta ask why you aren't a believer? What do you see that makes you think he is at best the Reds 27th best prospect?

Can't play the position and he's not even a good minor leaguer if he has to play anywhere else.

[mth123]

No Josh Ravin, mth?

Missed him. C+. Maybe straight C. For such a power pitcher he doesn't get enough Ks, but sure has the walks to go with them.

[dougdirt]

Can't play the position and he's not even a good minor leaguer if he has to play anywhere else.

What suggests to you he can't play the position? He has been gunning runners out over the last two months like he is Pudge Rodriguez in his prime. His pitchers have also been saying good things about his improved ability to block and catch balls in the dirt this year as well.

As for his bat. He walks quite a bit. He doesn't strike out at a real high rate. He shows solid power for the league (.140 isoP for a kid who just turned 21 two weeks ago).

I guess I just see things drastically different than you on this one.

[13 in hall]

My opinion which does not count for much is that Alonso stays and Joey moves to LF why? Because as we see the Reds will never put more that 80 million into payroll plain and simple if they can get a good young cheap run producing machine like I see Alonso becoming then they will hold onto him as long as they can and then flip him for a host of cheap prospects down the road. He will have far more value after playing four years in the bigs than just trading him as part of a package to acquire someone else. It just makes more sense and whatever you say about Jock he is not stupid. Sure he would trade him for a Mcgwire type of bat but there are none of those on the horizon. So he stays until he can no longer be affordable.

[mth123]

My opinion which does not count for much is that Alonso stays and Joey moves to LF why? Because as we see the Reds will never put more that 80 million into payroll plain and simple if they can get a good young cheap run producing machine like I see Alonso becoming then they will hold onto him as long as they can and then flip him for a host of cheap prospects down the road. He will have far more value after playing four years in the bigs than just trading him as part of a package to acquire someone else. It just makes more sense and whatever you say about Jock he is not stupid. Sure he would trade him for a Mcgwire type of bat but there are none of those on the horizon. So he stays until he can no longer be affordable.

I agree Find room for impact bats. If Votto was built like Howard or Fielder it might be different, but he's young, fit and mobile. If he proves incapable of reading a fly ball off the bat (watch Willy in CF for a while to see the definition of incapable of reading a fly ball off the bat) then maybe it fails and one is moved, but I try to get both the high level relativley cheap bats in the line-up togther first. The Reds don't have an impact bat in the minors besides Alonso. Heisey, Frazier, etc. may be capable and cost effective, but they're not the impact guy Alonso projects to be.

[Kingspoint]

My opinion which does not count for much is that Alonso stays and Joey moves to LF why? Because as we see the Reds will never put more that 80 million into payroll plain and simple if they can get a good young cheap run producing machine like I see Alonso becoming then they will hold onto him as long as they can and then flip him for a host of cheap prospects down the road. He will have far more value after playing four years in the bigs than just trading him as part of a package to acquire someone else. It just makes more sense and whatever you say about Jock he is not stupid. Sure he would trade him for a Mcgwire type of bat but there are none of those on the horizon. So he stays until he can no longer be affordable.

I can't see it any other way, and I don't think Jockety drafted him for any other reason than for what you outline here. Alonso is an RBI-machine. You have to get him in this lineup with these pitchers. He, Votto, and Bruce will be a murderers row, though you'll have to stick one right-handed bat in there somewhere.

[Mario-Rijo]

Can't play the position and he's not even a good minor leaguer if he has to play anywhere else.

I agree with Doug on Mes. It seems Mes has taken major strides this year defensively. And if I might add he is again at a level higher than he should be. They are rushing him through levels and despite that fact he is making significant strides. IMO in this case it is far too early to have any real opinion one way or another. Now would I give him the same benefit of the doubt had he been a 19th rounder? Probably not, there is no expectation of a guy drafted that far down having the neccessary talent/skillset to ever make it perse'. So far given the circumstances he has performed well enough to even consider giving up an iota yet.

[Scrap Irony]

He's hitting .215 with an OPS of 670. He also has six error as a catcher and a CS% of 28%.

I hope he is learning how to catch and throw out runners that steal against him. I hope he is hitting well with runners on second and less than 2 outs in day games after twi-night doubleheaders, or whatever.

But the facts remain that Mesoraco has strugged a great deal both offensively and defensively. 215/315/357/691 is no way to get to the majors for anyone.

[dougdirt]

He's hitting .215 with an OPS of 670. He also has six error as a catcher and a CS% of 28%.

I hope he is learning how to catch and throw out runners that steal against him. I hope he is hitting well with runners on second and less than 2 outs in day games after twi-night doubleheaders, or whatever.

But the facts remain that Mesoraco has strugged a great deal both offensively and defensively. 215/315/357/691 is no way to get to the majors for anyone.

He is also hitting in the FSL, walking a lot and hitting plenty of line drives with a little bit of power.

As for the defense, all reports on him behind the plate are very good. As for his CS%..... he started off this season 2 for 32. Since then he is 17 for 35 on attempted base stealers (Thats 49%). I don't mean to say this to toot my own horn, but I have been saying since last year that his arm is fine and his mechanics throwing wise were fine but his footwork was slower than you would want because he is trying to be perfect rather than just 'catch and throw'. Maybe he finally got to the point where he is 'catching and throwing' rather than catching, thinking about setting up his feet perfectly and then throwing. Something certainly changed in mid to late May because he went from throwing out guys as fast as me to throwing out just about anyone in the league.

As for the errors....
Here are the error totals for the top 10 catchers in the league sorted by AB's:
Austin Romine - 6 - 323 chances
Devin Mesoraco - 6 - 400 chances
Francisco Pena - 5 - 478 chances
Miguel Fermin - 6 - 513 chances
Jesus Montero - 2 (universally seen as a non catcher who they let wear the gear) - 158 chances
Joel Naughton - 7 - 339 chances
Robinson Chirinos - 5 - 344 chances
Jonathan Jaspe - 6 - 327 chances
Martin Maldonado - 3 - 453 chances
Jason Bour - 2 - 143 chances
Jordan Newton - 0 - 230 chances

Looks like Devin is right on target with the rest of the leagues catchers. I think you are seeing something that isn't there.