Is Chapman the Reds #1 prospect?

[REDblooded]

With Chapman signing and being suggested as a top 25 prospect in all of baseball, would he receive your vote as the number 1 prospect in the Reds organization?

I'd say a showing of better than 59.9% in favor of yes would be enough to avoid having to vote again on the top prospects, shuffle Chapman to the top, and bump everybody else down a spot...

[dougdirt]

I look like the only no vote so far. My reasoning is simply that I think Alonso is also a Top 25 prospect in baseball and is a MUCH safer bet to be an average major leaguer.

[Superdude]

way to throw cold water on the party Doug

[dougdirt]

way to throw cold water on the party Doug

I didn't know how everyone voted before clicking my vote.... not that it would have changed it of course. It looks like I am the laughing stock on this one though. Point and mock if you must guys, its now 12 to 1 against me lol

[OnBaseMachine]

Absolutely. Alonso is more polished but Chapman has the most upside of any player in the Reds system (with Yorman Rodriguez a close second). 97 mph easy heat that can touch 100, a devastating slider at times, and a changeup that has potential to be a very good pitch. When I first saw Chapman pitch in the World Baseball Classic I said his stuff reminded me of Randy Johnson and I still stand by that statement. His upside is incredible.

[mace]

The only thing that makes this hard is that Chapman doesn't have a comparable reference point to most prospects; i.e., no minor-league performance, no college performance. But he has pitched at a high level, and his stuff is obviously there. Plus the frame and the motion. The kicker, for me, is the contract offers he engendered. Do you think major-league teams would be bidding that way for Alonso or Leake? Don't see that happening.

[dougdirt]

The only thing that makes this hard is that Chapman doesn't have a comparable reference point to most prospects; i.e., no minor-league performance, no college performance. But he has pitched at a high level, and his stuff is obviously there. Plus the frame and the motion. The kicker, for me, is the contract offers he engendered. Do you think major-league teams would be bidding that way for Alonso or Leake? Don't see that happening.

Tough question because they didn't have to. They are playing by very separate rules in terms of contract negotiation.

[HokieRed]

I look like the only no vote so far. My reasoning is simply that I think Alonso is also a Top 25 prospect in baseball and is a MUCH safer bet to be an average major leaguer.

I voted the same way for the same reason and before I saw your post. Only thing I'd add is an "above average" major leaguer.

[redsmetz]

I finally chose "no," but that doesn't take anything away from Chapman.

[icehole3]

I voted yes, if he comes to spring training and is lights out he could have some Fernando Valenzuela buzz about him

[11larkin11]

I vote yes. Alonso's polish and Chapman's ceiling cancel each other out for me. The selling point for me on Chapman is that I value a starting pitcher over a hitter anytime, ESPECIALLY a lefty over a first baseman. But I still love Alonso

[Kc61]

I don't think it's very close. To me, a number one prospect needs a huge upside. Frankly, the only Reds prospect before today who has shown that upside IMO is Francisco who was a dominant hitter in the second half last year. Alonso hasn't hit for power. Frazier so far seems a solid type rather than a number one.

Of course, all this could change with one season's performance. But Chapman clearly has the upside and is near major league ready.

Just a long way of saying that Chapman is the clear number one.

[OnBaseMachine]

I think Chapman will be in the top 10 in Baseball America's top 100 list.

[11larkin11]

Curious, OBM. What are the ranks of the ceilings of The Big 5? I would think it was

Bailey
Chapman
Cueto
Volquez
Leake

Are Bailey and Chapman switched? I figured since Bailey was #1 over prospect and Chapman is Top 10, or is this year's crop stronger than Bailey's years?

[OnBaseMachine]

I think Chapman goes to the top of the list. After that it gets tougher. Bailey/Chapman/Cueto/Volquez all have top-of-rotation stuff, IMO. It's really tough for me to rank them.

J.J. Cooper listed his top five prospects as Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Desmond Jennings, and Jesus Montero. If you ask me, Chapman should be #3 behind Strasburg and Heyward. I think I remember one of BA's writers saying in a chat that he would rank Chapman in the top three but that's been months ago.