Does RC take into consideration his SBs? Either way he's a big improvement over last year. I think Willy was a good pickup for this year. The gamble on Walt's part was giving him that 2nd year with a raise to boot.Originally Posted by Raisor
Does RC take into consideration his SBs? Either way he's a big improvement over last year. I think Willy was a good pickup for this year. The gamble on Walt's part was giving him that 2nd year with a raise to boot.
yes
Those 2008 numbers include 154 PA's by Bruce:So Taveras is roughly a win better than production driven by a historically bad season by a centerfielder?
.342 .432 .566 .998
80 PA's by Freel:
.293 .338 .347 .684
66 PA's by Hairston:
.362 .409 .569 .978
28 PA's by Dickerson:
.391 .481 .652 1.134
That accounts for nearly half of the PA's Reds CF's had last year.
Patterson has a dismal year last year, but Reds CF's had a decent one on the whole. 76 Runs Created is not a dismal number for a team's CF. Not good, not what you want, but nothing like the number that Patterson would have put up if he played the whole season there by himself.
And I bet 89 Runs Created would be in the top half of CF's league wide. Could be wrong, but that is a perfectly acceptable number from a CF that provides league average defense or better.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
That I will never understand. There is no way that he has such a great year this year that he would get much more than $4M arbitration next year, and the risk was too good that he would have a bad year and deserve a lot less, or even get cut.
It might work out a little bit, but at the time, it was not a wise decision.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I think my point got missed a bit. Let me rephrase, it took over half of the '08 centerfield production to come from a guy who had a historically bad season for Taveras' current production to be a win upgrade assuming he manages to maintain his current significantly-better-than-projected production over 700 PAs.
Thisreally should've been this
in my original post....
I think if the Reds really wanted to make a splash this season, they should've toughed it out with Bruce in center for a season or two while focusing on some corner outfielders.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
See, I see it as three guys had to overperform at HOF standards to offset one historically poor CF and allow the CF position to be one of decent production. That Taveras is outperforming that is pretty darn cool, so far.
I do realize it's early, etc., and I also think Taveras is likely to turn into a pumpkin at some point. I also think his pumpkin isn't nearly the size of Patterson's last season, but that discussion's been discussed, as it were, and doesn't need new legs.
oh, he's turning alright. Not impressed with his defense either. scares the crap out of me every time he breaks back then sprints forward at full speed.
the series against the Padres didn't help. woeful performance at the plate.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
2009 Willy Taveras: 95.5 RC per 700 PAs (or 5.4 RC/G)
2009 NL average: 5.1 RC/G
I didn't like the signing either but it is working so far.
It will be interesting how he responds to his woeful performance in SD. It seemed like he started to believe his own press clippings, and instead of being a patient hitter, he was swinging at everything. That was Patterson's problem, and if Taveras keeps this up, it could get ugly.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
As of now:
Taveras: .293/.351/.376/.727
Dickerson: .230/.356/.365/.721
OBP and OPS nearly identical. Everyone says Taveras has been good and Dickerson has been awful. I think they've both been awful. Its just that Willy has surpassed expectations while Dickerson has fallen short of expectations (but the Reds aren't on the hook for $4 Million to Dickerson in 2010). By next week at this time, The Memorial Day checkpoint, Dickerson may still have outperformed Willy.
Last edited by mth123; 05-18-2009 at 10:02 PM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
That's been my whole argument all along.
I hope Taveras proves me wrong but I wouldn't bet on it.
Speaking for myself, I don't think Dickerson's been awful. I've liked his patience so far and have been anticipating some luck to turn for the guy. I don't think he's a good option defensively in CF, nor is he an everyday starting LF, but he's very handy guy to have around, and I'd be angry if the Reds sent him down.
Not sure how that changes the fact that Taveras has so far been worth his contract.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Probably because the sample sizes are still small and numbers are prone to wild swings.
On May 11, Taveras' OPS sat at .795 and Dickerson's was .604. One week ago, those statements were pretty accurate.
It's really hard to make the case that a CF who is above the league average in Runs Created has been "awful". Trying to evalute Taveras with OPS is completely missing the picture. Re: Willy vs Dickerson, batting average isn't the greatest stat in the world but when the OBP is identical, the guy with 60 points higher BA is obviously playing better. Then consider Taveras at 10 SB, 1 CS and Dickerson at 0 SB, 2 CS and you see why Willy is about a full run higher in RC/G.
If the Reds didn't give Wily two years, he probably signs elsewhere.
Walt really didn't have time to wait Wily out. He knew the Reds desperately needed a CF and Wily was the only FA CF in our price range.
Even with Wily's recent slump, his contract is still a good one, even with 2 years.
But let's say we gave Wily a one year, 3 million dollar deal instead of 2 years at 6.. then we go to arb with him. Wily might hit .280, score 100 runs, play good defense and steal 60+ bases. That's reasonable. Those are pretty good numbers to take to arb. After this season, I think Wily has enough service time to compare himself with all players as peers. Given some of the really bad CF contracts out there recently, I think Wily may have won more in arb.. It would make me uncomfortable to go to arb with him.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
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