The 2010 Baseball Draft - Revisited - 1st Round

[nemesis]

I figured it would be nice to revisit the 1st round of the ML Draft last year to see where the players are already and how they are doing in relation to their Draft status.

1) Was- Bryce Harper - High A - Batting .330 with a 1.014 OPS in 227 AB's with 14 HR's and 13 SB's. Him and Mike Trout should have an interesting dual for MiLB Player of the year.

2) Pit- James Taillon - Low A - 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 10 starts. given up as many BB's as HR's (4). Pirates keeping the workload light on this TOR arm.

3) Bal - Manuel Machado - High A - OPSing .859 as a 18 yr old in Carolina League. BB to K ratio is 1:1. Looks promising so far. Baltimore drafts so well.

4) KC - Christian Colon - AA - The guy the Royals took over Grandal. (Don't they need a young catcher?) OPSing .684, but, has a 27 to 23 BB to K ratio. Has only 11 XBH in 238 AB's. Has trouble with LHP so far with a .482 OPS.

5) Cle - Drew Pomeranz - High A - Flat out dominating his competition. 1.93 ERA in 12 starts with a 11.43 K's per 9. Being a LHP makes him all the more valuable.

6) Ari - Barret Loux - High A - Had the injury and Arizona got the exemption and allowed him to be a FA. Signed with Texas as a FA. Arizona shoulda kept the kid. 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA, 74 K's in 67 IP with a measly 2 HR allowed.

7) NYM - Matthew Harvey - AA- This was the guy I just loved coming outta college. Just screamed TOR arm. His numbers are showing just that. 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA in 14 starts. 76 IP with a 11.13 K per 9 ratio. He might see a start or 2 in the Majors late September.

8) Hou - Delino DeShields Jr - Low A - A pick that had alot of people scratching their heads. Seemed like a signablity pick. Has been a struggle so far. .197 BA, .336 SLG % and a .624 OPS. Batting .168 vs RHP.

9) SD - Karsten Whitson - Unsigned

10) Oak - Michael Choice - High A - Showing alot of power (16 HR's / 34 XBH) so far and can take a walk, 36 in 262 AB's. HAs trouble with contact 82 K's which is hurting his BA .248.

11) Tor - Deck McGuire - High A - Tall pitching prospect I heard alot about on here last year. Has solid numbers, 2.89 ERA, 74 K's in 74 IP and a .228 BAA.

12) Cin - Yasmani Grandal - AA - Slid a long way to the Reds last year. Took a ML Deal to keep him from returning to Miami. Has put up great numbers in the Cal League. .410 OBP / .510 SLG%... Switch hitter who is putting up a .900 OPS from both sides of the plate. Promoted today to AA.

13) CWS - Chris Sale - Majors - Made it to the Majors last season and dominated. Having a rougher time around this year. Not sure if he is the closer of the future with that team or a MOR Arm.

14) Mil - Dylan Covey - Unsigned

15) Tex - Jacob Skole - Low A - Has ok numbers .710 OPS, .263 BA... Not hitting for any power, (11 XBH in 209 PA) Walks a ton. (34 BB's) Not really speedy 9 SB in 15 Attempts with 85 opportunities.

16) ChC- Hayden Simpson - Low A - Head scratcher #2 last year. No one really had this guy anywhere near the 1st Round. His numbers show why. 5.33 ERA in 14 starts, 54 IP, 60 Hits, 9 HR Allowed, 24 BB's and 44 K's.

17) TB - Joshua Sale - Rookie - Season just started. 1-6 with 3 K's so far.

18) LAA - Kaleb Cowart - Rookie - Season just started 5 for 9 with 5 RBI so far.

19) Hou - Michael Foltynewic - Low A - Houston might have the worst Minor League system in baseball and their second pick of this draft is not helping matters. 4.54 ERA in 14 starts, 75 IP 30 BB's 40 K's .285 BAA.

20) Bos - Kolrin Vitek - High A - .684 OPS and 0 HR in 250 AB's. 6 for his last 35. (.171 BA / .437 OPS)

21) Min - Alex Wimmers - High A - Walked the first 6 batters he faced this year. Had a groin injury that destroyed his mechanics. May never recover.

22) Tex - Kellin Deglan - Low A - A LHH Catcher who is barely 19 has a .658 OPS over all but .732 vs RHP and .911 in his last 10 games. Have a strong feeling about this kid in time.

23) Flo - Christian Yelich - Low A - LHH who is struggling against LHP. Posting a overall .753 OPS but .826 vs RHP.

24) SF - Gary Brown - High A - Posting all around solid numbers in the hitter friendly league. .398 OBP, 32 SB's a .876 OPS. Destroys LHP 1.158 OPS in 47 AB's.

25) StL- Zach Cox - AA - Meh. Had ok #'s in High A. .819 OPS, only 17 XBH in 266 AB's overall. Not showing a CIF kinda bat.

26) Col - Kyle Parker - Low A - Not sure he is fully committed to be a baseball player yet. Numbers have slipped lately. (.158 BA / .396 OPS last 38 AB's) Has a big arm, power potential though.

27) Phi - Jessie Biddle - Low A - LH High School pitcher who has had control issues. (36 BB in 67 IP) But has only given up 2 HR's and allowing a .232 BAA.

28) LAD - Zach Lee - Low A - Got lots of cash to leave football. Put up great numbers until he was shut down in early May. (6 Starts 30.2 IP 28 K 1.17 ERA) Shut down for 4 weeks and has not been as affective. (4 Starts 13.2 IP 13 K 9.88 ERA)

29) LAA - Cameron Bedrosian - Rookie - Has not pitch this year yet.

30) LAA - Chevy Clarke - Rookie - 3 for his first 8.

31) TB - Justin O'Conner - Rookie -1 for his forst 8 with 5 K's

32) NYY - Cito Culver - Rookie - 2 for his first 21. With a .304 OPS. But he is a Yankee prospect so that means he should make ESPN's top 25 prospects list.


Some Supplemental picks of note.

36) Bos - Bryce Brentz - High A - Alot of posters loved this guy. SLG % of .652 on the year with a 1.048 OPS. 29 XBH in 198 AB's.

43) Sea - Taijuan Walker - Low A - Nice looking numbers for a 18 year old in the Midwest league. 2.40 ERA in 9 starts, 45 IP 56 K 16 BB's .220 BAA 1 HR Allowed an almost a 2.50 to 1 GB:FB ratio.

48) Det - Chance Ruffin - AA - A guy that was rumored to goto the Reds at 12 and had the board all a panic. 2.25 ERA in 29 Appearances, 40 K's in 32 IP and a .186 BAA. Extreme flyball pitcher.

49) Tex - Michael Olt - High A - I would have loved to see him slip to the Reds at 62. On the DL now but has put up solid overall #'s - .395 OBP / .508 SLG%. 10 HR in 189 BA's with 12 2B's


So there it is. If you guys want every week or so I can go back a year to look at past drafts. Impact players in later rounds and guys the Reds missed on and glad they missed on. Just let me know.

[camisadelgolf]

Thanks, nemesis.

[cinreds21]

Good stuff sir.

[fearofpopvol1]

fabulous post. kudos to you!!

[lollipopcurve]

Nice recap.

The Astros' selections.... ouch. Still early though. Surprised by what has happened to Wimmers. Nice bounceback from Brentz, who was awful in short season ball last summer.

Gotta say the Reds did a great job with the Grandal pick at #12.

[kaldaniels]

Why don't they force players to declare for the draft (with no return?) I hate to see unsigned picks.

[Benihana]

Nice recap.

Looks like all of the Top 7 picks are performing to expectations with the exception of Christian Colon. I always liked Pomeranz, he reminded me of Andrew Miller (the draft prospect, not the real thing) - another guy who I always liked.

Another guy I liked in this draft was Josh Sale- I'll be particularly curious to monitor his progress. Said it before but I'll repeat it here- very glad we didn't take Wimmers.

[nemesis]

Nice recap.

Looks like all of the Top 7 picks are performing to expectations with the exception of Christian Colon. I always liked Pomeranz, he reminded me of Andrew Miller (the draft prospect, not the real thing) - another guy who I always liked.

Another guy I liked in this draft was Josh Sale- I'll be particularly curious to monitor his progress. Said it before but I'll repeat it here- very glad we didn't take Wimmers.

I'll be honest, if Grandal hadn't slid, I was hoping for Wimmers. He may have never pulled that groin and lost his mechanics here. So its an unfair statement to say he woulda been the same guy here. Have to say though, the early returns on the first round isn't all bad. It seem though the Reds and Pittsburgh are the only two teams in out division who can draft worth a pooh... I also have to say, I would never draft a HS bat in the first round, less a Catcher or a SS. Way to volitile.

[nemesis]

Why don't they force players to declare for the draft (with no return?) I hate to see unsigned picks.

I think that's something that needs to be addressed. I think if you allow the trading of picks Top 5 rounds only, for prospects and picks, you have to make it mandatory for college Juniors who declare to be ineligible to return. It would help the amount of money they demand come under control and the issue of ML deals be demanded by some. Also it would screw over Boras and I am all for that.

[Az. Reds Fan]

6) Ari - Barret Loux - High A - Had the injury and Arizona got the exemption and allowed him to be a FA. Signed with Texas as a FA. Arizona shoulda kept the kid. 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA, 74 K's in 67 IP with a measly 2 HR allowed.

I gotta feeling AZ is just fine with passing on Loux, who's shoulder is a wreck, and taking Archie Bradley with the comp pick this year instead.

[Benihana]

I'll be honest, if Grandal hadn't slid, I was hoping for Wimmers. He may have never pulled that groin and lost his mechanics here. So its an unfair statement to say he woulda been the same guy here. Have to say though, the early returns on the first round isn't all bad. It seem though the Reds and Pittsburgh are the only two teams in out division who can draft worth a pooh... I also have to say, I would never draft a HS bat in the first round, less a Catcher or a SS. Way to volitile.

Huh?

Judging how a team drafts based off last year's first round is pretty foolish. If you look at the last couple years, the Cardinals drafted Brett Wallace (who they used to acquire Matt Holliday) and Shelby Miller, one of the best pitching prospects in the game. The Brewers first round picks include Ryan Braun, and pieces they used to acquire CC Sabathia, Shaun Marcum, and Zack Greinke, respectively, in trades. I also happen to love their haul in this year's draft (Bradley and Jungmann). Even the stinking Cubs drafted Tyler Colvin, Andrew Cashner, and Brett Jackson in the last couple years. Even Josh Vitters is seemingly finally starting to put it together as a 21 year old in AA (although I doubt he'll ever be a star). And are you really serious in saying you would never draft a HS bat, SS, or C in the first round? What the hell would you draft?

[nemesis]

Huh?

Judging how a team drafts based off last year's first round is pretty foolish. If you look at the last couple years, the Cardinals drafted Brett Wallace (who they used to acquire Matt Holliday) and Shelby Miller, one of the best pitching prospects in the game. The Brewers first round picks include Ryan Braun, and pieces they used to acquire CC Sabathia, Shaun Marcum, and Zack Greinke, respectively, in trades. I also happen to love their haul in this year's draft (Bradley and Jungmann). Even the stinking Cubs drafted Tyler Colvin, Andrew Cashner, and Brett Jackson in the last couple years. Even Josh Vitters is seemingly finally starting to put it together as a 21 year old in AA (although I doubt he'll ever be a star). And are you really serious in saying you would never draft a HS bat, SS, or C in the first round? What the hell would you draft?

No. I said I would never draft a HS bat unless it was a Catcher or Shortstop. Houston, Chicago and StLouis all have bottom third Minor Leauge systems currently. Just look at their rosters. Sure every system produces two or three guys who could be in the show at some point. But look at how bad the teams are (Chicago and Houston) and their is no immediate help on the horizon.

[Benihana]

No. I said I would never draft a HS bat unless it was a Catcher or Shortstop. Houston, Chicago and StLouis all have bottom third Minor Leauge systems currently. Just look at their rosters. Sure every system produces two or three guys who could be in the show at some point. But look at how bad the teams are (Chicago and Houston) and their is no immediate help on the horizon.

Guess you would've missed out on Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Denard Span, Nick Markakis, Delmon Young, Billy Butler, Andrew McCutcheon, Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus, Mike Moustakas, Ben Revere, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Mike Trout, and of course, Jay Bruce.

I actually would almost take the opposite approach, and say that HS hitters that don't play C or SS are your best bet to draft a superstar.

How many busts can you name that come from that genre? I just gave you 15 players drafted in the last ten years that are either already or on the verge of being above average players. And I'm not even counting guys like Bryce Harper or Justin Upton that were drafted specifically to play a position other than C or SS.

Even guys like Jeremy Hermida, Jeff Francouer, and Blake DeWitt have been serviceable major leaguers (which is better than average for a 1st round pick).

[nemesis]

Guess you would've missed out on Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Denard Span, Nick Markakis, Delmon Young, Billy Butler, Andrew McCutcheon, Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus, Mike Moustakas, Ben Revere, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Mike Trout, and of course, Jay Bruce.

I actually would almost take the opposite approach, and say that HS hitters that don't play C or SS are your best bet to draft a superstar.

How many busts can you name that come from that genre? I just gave you 15 players drafted in the last ten years that are either already or on the verge of being above average players. And I'm not even counting guys like Bryce Harper or Justin Upton that were drafted specifically to play a position other than C or SS.

Even guys like Jeremy Hermida, Jeff Francouer, and Blake DeWitt have been serviceable major leaguers (which is better than average for a 1st round pick).

There are a ton of guys to prove I am wrong and there are a ton of guys to prove I am right. So in the middle it means there are merits to both strategies. I am a big believer in drafting young high upside arms in the first round. But if you go bat in the first round go with a college bat. (Stubbs, Alonso, Grandal)

[Benihana]

There are a ton of guys to prove I am wrong and there are a ton of guys to prove I am right. So in the middle it means there are merits to both strategies. I am a big believer in drafting young high upside arms in the first round. But if you go bat in the first round go with a college bat. (Stubbs, Alonso, Grandal)

Personally, I think it depends more on where in the first round you are drafting. If I'm the Scouting Director, I'd go absolute BPA in the Top 20 picks - regardless of arm, bat, position, HS or College. Ironically, the one exception to this might be drafting a college 1B who's projected to move fast if you're already set at that position for years to come, with the logic being that there is nowhere on the diamond to move a 1B, and as we've seen with Alonso, it's not always so easy to trade these types. This is especially true if you are an NL team and can't slide the player into the DH role.

In the latter part of the first round, I go for the most upside even if it bears considerably more risk, which usually means a HS player and frequently an arm. As I noted in a previous thread, the success rate of HS arms drafted in the latter part of the first round is very interesting. Phil Hughes, Rick Porcello, Matt Garza, Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright, and Jeremy Bonderman are all examples of this phenomenon, and there have been suprisingly few flameouts. Hopefully Robert Stephenson will join this group eventually. The logic with this strategy is that there are usually not as many high-ceiling players available later in the first round, and I'd rather take a gamble at getting an All-Star in the 1st round than settling for an a lower-ceiling safer pick.