Is there enough separation between BPA and nBPA (next best player available) to justify the risk of not signing the pick, if the team pretty much knows nBPA is signable? I don't think so.I don't think he's making the argument for punting on the pick, but taking the BPA and offering him slot money with the hope that he'll take it. Worst case scenario, he doesn't and you're in the situation that you described. I don't think it's a bad strategy at all.
From yesterday's BA Chat:
CD (Cols, Ohio): Is Alex wimmers stock rising or falling as the draft approaches? Our the Reds @ 12 a possibility?
John Manuel: "Are" the Reds a possibility? Yes, they are, but he's not the 12th-best . His stock took a hit with his hamstring injury, and he's got to prove to me he's healthy after his final start. Nice going-away present by Bob Todd at Ohio State to keep Wimmers in the game that got suspended, so Wimmers pitched one or two IP on Friday and then came back with five or so on Saturday. Connor did a Wimmers feature this year and agrees that he could go 12 but probably should not on talent. He may be the guy who winds up highest on Cincy's board who will sign for slot at 12, and this draft board has little separation, so while I don't see him at 12, I could see how a team could take him 12th.
Go BLUE!!!
Exactly. And next season, you should be in the situation above, with a pick whose worth going over slot.Originally Posted by Benihana
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Updated wish lists:
First Round
1. Drew Pomeranz LHP (although there is virtually no chance he's there at 12)
2. Chris Sale LHP (ditto)
3. Josh Sale OF
4. Yasmani Grandal C
5. Karsten Whitson RHP
6. Deck McGuire RHP
7. Michael Choice OF
8. Christian Colon SS
Second Round
1. Delino DeShields, Jr. OF
2. Brandon Workman RHP
3. James Paxton LHP
4. LeVon Washington OF
5. Micah Gibbs C
6. Jarrett Parker OF
Go BLUE!!!
Id be pretty excited if DeShields fell to us in the 2nd. Especially since his dad is working for the Reds in Billings.
Kevin Goldstein released a mock draft today and has the Reds selecting Kolbrin Vitek, the 2B from Ball State.
Here's the link:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=11070
If the talent in the middle of the 1st is somewhat lackluster (as I have been reading), then why not take a shot on Ranaudo?
The MLB draft is such a tossup, that Alex Wimmers might not be the "12th best prospect" should mean absolutely nothing in regards to being drafted at 12th. The difference in talent between the 10th-best and perhaps 30th-best guys is minimal and you can pick names out of a hat and have a similar chance of guessing who will have a successful career.
Point is, if a team likes Wimmers, I wouldn't let the fact 7-10 guys are ranked ahead of him stop the team from drafting him.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
i'd be disappointed if the reds selected vitek.
I don't know enough about the draft to really have much input. But what does scare me about Wimmers is that many have been comparing him to Mike Leake. What I do know is that Leake is doing something that no one in the history of modern baseball has done. Not only jumped to the bigs without any minor league experience but also not stubbing his toe. While Wimmer's game may look similar to Leake's, I don't want the Reds to draft him if they think he will succeed in the same vain as Leake.
I am hoping the Reds go offense in the first round. The overall offensive game in the minors right now if offensive. Even their top hitting prospects are struggling. You can't have enough pitching, but you can have too little hitting.
Absolutely...as long as the guy fits the team's philosophy, is not a complete overdraft and wasn't chosen over a premier talent, then I wouldn't lose too much sleep over the choice.
Once upon a time, Joey Votto signed for well below what those around him got.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...0/2610118.html
The BA Draft
12. REDS (John). Cincinnati has been spoiled by Mike Leake, whose debut won't be topped by this year's pick. Still, the polished college pitcher route has worked for them before. Unless Ohio high schooler Stetson Allie has more polish than I think, that makes Deck McGuire the pick here. He's polished, throws four pitches for strikes and should be a cheaper replacement for the likes of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo soon. Getting a top college pitcher with the 12th pick is solid value.
Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 06-04-2010 at 12:18 PM. Reason: Please do not post entire articles from other websites
So Brentz and Castellanos drop out of the 1st, not hardly. They will both be gone by 20th overall. Frankly I hope we take Castellanos but Brentz I can live with too as a quick comer in LF. Castellanos being a possible Troy Glaus in the pipeline, for when Rolen is done.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
I'm extremely high on Nick Castellanos. I think he's going to be one of the best players to come from this draft. I'll be thrilled if the Reds draft him.
I saw in the mock draft just put up that there are some of dual sports players and signability is a question because of that. Any chance we may take a flyer on any of those after the 1st round hoping to reach an arrangement like we did with Adam Dunn or the guy we took last year (name eludes me)?
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