Burnett will pitch in 2014 - wants to test the market

[ac084c]

If you haven't seen, AJ Burnett has decided he will pitch in 2014 and wants to test the market.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/0...r-pirates.html

Over on the big board, there are a few clamoring for the Reds to snatch this guy up if the price is right, which I find very interesting.

The reason that I find it interesting, is that this guy has a very similar profile to presumed-departing Bronson Arroyo - who no one seems to think the Reds have a shot at re-signing (nor are asking for it).

From 2011 - 2013:

         W   L   GS  IP     K9    BB9   KBB   HR9   ERA   xFIP  fWAR  bWAR
Burnett  37  32  93  583.2  8.67  3.27  2.65  0.93  3.98  3.39  8.1   4.7
Arroyo   35  34  96  603.0  5.39  1.70  3.17  1.55  4.19  4.23  1.7   5.1

They are the same age (going into age 37 season), and neither is tied to draft-pick compensation.

+'s for Burnett: Much higher K-rate, Much lower HR-rate, better ERA, better xFIP, much better fWAR
+'s for Arroyo: Much lower BB-rate, Higher K/BB-rate, More IP, better bWAR

Fangraphs WAR is a function of FIP which Burnett is the clear favorite in (1.06 points lower than Arroyo over the span) and explains the huge difference in WAR. Baseball-reference WAR is more a function of runs allowed, which gives Arroyo the edge.

I would argue that because of the Reds' defense, FIP and xFIP are less relevant statistics for their pitchers.

[No pants Mcgee]

Good post. Personally if I had to choose i would prefer the Reds go after Burnett over Arroyo simply because he is more likely to take a 1 year deal. With that said though if the Reds wouldn't give Arroyo a qualifying offer, I'm skeptical they have much interest in getting in the Burnett bidding.

[ac084c]

Good post. Personally if I had to choose i would prefer the Reds go after Burnett over Arroyo simply because he is more likely to take a 1 year deal. With that said though if the Reds wouldn't give Arroyo a qualifying offer, I'm skeptical they have much interest in getting in the Burnett bidding.

You think he's more likely to take the one-year deal based on him making the "to retire or not" decision this offseason? Probably a safe assumption.

I personally wouldn't give either of these guys more than 2 years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone give them 2 years with an option year.

Burnett's HR rate is certainly appealing, given GABP's dimensions, however, that might inflate greatly if he plays a full season in GABP.

[No pants Mcgee]

Yeah I cannot see a guy who considered retiring up to nearly February being picky about a multiyear deal.

Let me ask you this AC. You seem to have a greater appreciation for advanced stats than a poster like me, so I like getting your opinion. Do you think either Arroyo or Burnett are enough of an upgrade over Leake or Cingrani to justify signing? Based upon other signings I would assume they get at least $10m per

[ac084c]

Yeah I cannot see a guy who considered retiring up to nearly February being picky about a multiyear deal.

Let me ask you this AC. You seem to have a greater appreciation for advanced stats than a poster like me, so I like getting your opinion. Do you think either Arroyo or Burnett are enough of an upgrade over Leake or Cingrani to justify signing? Based upon other signings I would assume they get at least $10m per

The only reason to sign one of these guys would be as an insurance policy against injury to another starter (both have been very durable over the last 5 years) - and that's only assuming you could get him on a one-year deal.

That shouldn't be a problem for Leake - barring unforseen injury, he should pitch 200 innings.

Cingrani isn't likely to go over 175.

The one really attractive thing about Burnett is his ground ball rate (56.5%) which would be ideal in GABP with a good defense behind him.

Compared to the others: Leake (48.7%), Cingrani (34.3%), Arroyo (44.4%). - edit (those are 2013 rates).

[kaldaniels]

I'm trying to decide if that was a slimy move by Burnett to claim he would only pitch as a Pirate in 2014, which I believe led to them not extending the Qualifying Offer.

[yadontSabo]

Burnett would be a good move to replace Bailey or Cueto if they planned on trading one for a bat until Stephenson is ready but they would still most likely be adding salary which they appear to be reluctant to do.

I like Burnett better than Arroyo because his career groundball% is 10pts higher than Arroyo and over the past 2 seasons ~15pts higher which i think would be beneficial in GABP. But I agree 2 years max one if possible.

ac beat me to it

[ac084c]

I'm trying to decide if that was a slimy move by Burnett to claim he would only pitch as a Pirate in 2014, which I believe led to them not extending the Qualifying Offer.

Slimy, maybe. Smart, definitely.

I'm still confused as to why the Pirates didn't extend one anyway.

What's the worst that could have happened? He accepts the QO and pitches one season at a discount from 2013?

[kaldaniels]

Slimy, maybe. Smart, definitely.

I'm still confused as to why the Pirates didn't extend one anyway.

What's the worst that could have happened? He accepts the QO and pitches one season at a discount from 2013?

Absolutely.

[yadontSabo]

Slimy, maybe. Smart, definitely.

I'm still confused as to why the Pirates didn't extend one anyway.

What's the worst that could have happened? He accepts the QO and pitches one season at a discount from 2013?

Do they have the dough to pay 14m and buy a bat at first? I haven't really paid attention to their money issues.

[kaldaniels]

Do they have the dough to pay 14m and buy a bat at first? I haven't really paid attention to their money issues.

You find a way to make it happen if you can get Burnett for 65 cents on the dollar.

[yadontSabo]

You find a way to make it happen if you can get Burnett for 65 cents on the dollar.

I have it at about 85 cents but either way I suppose you're right.

[yadontSabo]

It looks like they project to be around 74m and were at 79m last year. It would be pretty tough to give the QO to Burnett and find a bat at first and stay near 80m. They'd have had to have made some serious moves if they weren't looking to increase salary.

[kaldaniels]

I have it at about 85 cents but either way I suppose you're right.

I put zero effort into my currency conversion there, I admit.

If I'm not mistaken, Burnett led eligible starters or was near the top in k/9 last year at his age. I'm not expecting a major dropoff at all.

[ac084c]

I put zero effort into my currency conversion there, I admit.

If I'm not mistaken, Burnett led eligible starters or was near the top in k/9 last year at his age. I'm not expecting a major dropoff at all.

In fact, he led all qualified pitchers 30 or older in that category.

Add guys 25-29, he's still 4th. behind only Darvish (27), Scherzer (29), and Anibal Sanchez (29).