Modified Reds Top 15 Prospects

[Benihana]

With Homer Bailey now in the bigs, and Joey Votto likely to join him any day now, I'd like to offer up the first Reds Top Prospect list, with 2008 and beyond in mind. New additions to the list include Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier, the newest (yet still unsigned) additions to a suddenly strong minor league system. Here's my take:

1. Jay Bruce, OF High A (ETA: 2009)
Due for a call up to Chattanooga any day now, he has been lighting up the competition in the Florida State League, despite being one of its youngest players.

2. Carlos Fisher, RHP AA (ETA: 2008)
The biggest riser on the list, Fisher has done nothing but dominate at both High A and AA this year. He should at least score an invite to Spring Training next year.

3. Chris Valaika, INF Low A (ETA: 2009)
The highest peformer of last year's draft picks, Valaika should be playing in the Florida State League right now. A move to either 2B or 3B is in his future.

4. Johnny Cueto, RHP High A (ETA: 2009)
Although he has flashed inconsistency, he has performed well in his first year in the Florida State League, and even notched a victory in a spot start in AAA. He too should look to get a taste of AA by the end of the year.

5. Juan Francisco, 3B Low A (ETA: 2010/2011)
The youngest member of the list along with Mesoraco, Francisco has been posting a better OPS than last year's first rounder Stubbs at the same level, despite being almost four years younger.

6. Travis Wood, LHP High A just came back from injury, shown signs of inconsistency
7. Sean Watson, RHP Low A why he's not in Sarasota I'll never understand
8. Daryl Thompson, RHP High A getting adjusted to High A
9. Devin Mesoraco, C, Rookie (still unsigned) get him signed up today
10. Sam LeCure, RHP AA put up good numbers, probably the closest to the bigs after Fisher
11. Justin Turner, 2B Low A
12. Drew Stubbs, OF Low A
13. Todd Frazier, 3B/OF Rookie (still unsigned)
14. Calvin Medlock, RHP AA
15. Rafael Gonzalez, RHP Low A

[OesterPoster]

Daryl Thompson is no longer in Dayton. He's made 7 starts with Sarasota.

[Red Daddy]

Nice list...here's a few comments,

Fisher has been doing this since about midway through last year. This dominance has been going on awhile.

Juan Francisco's plate discipline is horrible at this point in his career. He almost seems to be a poor man's Wily Mo Pena. He must improve on this if he has any chance in the majors.

I would move Sean Watson up just below Fisher. This guy has been great this year. I hated this pick last year, but he's fast becoming a very solid starter.

Stubbs is doing better this year at the plate but is still striking out way too much. I hope he keeps improving!!

I never thought I'd see Gonzalez pitch successfully after all the red-flags I saw go up with him being lazy and not dedicated. I wish him continued success. He was supposed to be just a tick below Homer in terms of stuff. He should be outstanding!!

Cueto and Wood have really taken a step back. Wood has been hurt and that is what was predicted of him. Cueto has been dominant in the past, but has not been anywhere close to dominant lately.

[AdamDunn]

Top 12:
1. Jay Bruce (no-brainer)
2. Johnny Cueto (early injury has set him back and made his stats look unspectacular. but I'm not going to count it against him)
3. Devin Mesoraco (young with lots of promise. Good defensively and fast for a catcher)
4. Sean Watson (dominated single A)
5. Carlos Fisher (domination, but I'm worried it's a one year wonder)
6. Travis Wood (injured early, but I think he'll bounce back in time)
7. Drew Stubbs (could be Jose Reyes for centerfield. He has the speed, defense, and power combination. If he could just put the bat on the ball in single A. He's running out of time since he's 22.)
8. Todd Frazier (Power potential, probably will move to 3B)
9. Chris Valaika (Contact, but can he play defense?)
10. Juan Francisco (Good power. If I remember correctly, his defense is a question. Needs to learn how to take a walk. But he has time.)
11. Sam LeCure (solid, not spectacular)
12. Daryl Thompson (dominated Low A, but that's what you'd expect from a 22 year old)

[Benihana]

Daryl Thompson is no longer in Dayton. He's made 7 starts with Sarasota.

thanks, duly noted

[lollipopcurve]

Votto?

Pelland? Dumatrait? Gardner?

[Benihana]

Votto?

Pelland? Dumatrait? Gardner?

Votto will be called up any day now, so he and Bailey are off the list. Gardner is an omission, he should be on there around the same place as LeCure, maybe a little higher (8-10 range). Pelland and Dumatrait would be in the next (15-20) tier. Pelland projects to a reliever slightly behind Medlock, and Dumatrait has been awful in the last month, which worries me into thinking he may be a AAAA type player.

[bucksfan2]

Top 12:
1. Jay Bruce (no-brainer)
2. Johnny Cueto (early injury has set him back and made his stats look unspectacular. but I'm not going to count it against him)
3. Devin Mesoraco (young with lots of promise. Good defensively and fast for a catcher)
4. Sean Watson (dominated single A)
5. Carlos Fisher (domination, but I'm worried it's a one year wonder)
6. Travis Wood (injured early, but I think he'll bounce back in time)
7. Drew Stubbs (could be Jose Reyes for centerfield. He has the speed, defense, and power combination. If he could just put the bat on the ball in single A. He's running out of time since he's 22.)
8. Todd Frazier (Power potential, probably will move to 3B)
9. Chris Valaika (Contact, but can he play defense?)
10. Juan Francisco (Good power. If I remember correctly, his defense is a question. Needs to learn how to take a walk. But he has time.)
11. Sam LeCure (solid, not spectacular)
12. Daryl Thompson (dominated Low A, but that's what you'd expect from a 22 year old)

Interesting that you have Frazier ahead of Valaika who has ripped the cover off the ball since day one with this organization. Here is mine

1. Bruce - Should be in AA and I can see him taking over for Dunn midseason next year.
2. Fisher - Has looked great all year
3. Watson - Conversion to starter is looking good so far.
4. Valaika - Maybe the best pure hitter in the system so far.
5. Cueto - Has struggled a little but I have high hopes for him.
6. Stubbs - Defense and speed there, hopefully his hitting comes along a little bit more. I would love to see an OBP of around .375 for him.
7. Thompson - Sure he is a little old for A but he has been dominant so far this year.
8. Frazier - Hopefully he can hit in the minors. A little older than Mesoraco so I give him the nod.
9. Francisco - Hopefully he developes a little better strike zone knowledge.
10. Mesoraco - He has a long way to go. Hopefully he developes nicely with the Reds.
11. Lecure - I think he could be a sloid starter in the bigs for quite a few seasons.
12. Wood - What happened to the pitcher who was dominant his rookie season?

[AdamDunn]

Interesting that you have Frazier ahead of Valaika who has ripped the cover off the ball since day one with this organization. Here is mine

1. Bruce - Should be in AA and I can see him taking over for Dunn midseason next year.
2. Fisher - Has looked great all year
3. Watson - Conversion to starter is looking good so far.
4. Valaika - Maybe the best pure hitter in the system so far.
5. Cueto - Has struggled a little but I have high hopes for him.
6. Stubbs - Defense and speed there, hopefully his hitting comes along a little bit more. I would love to see an OBP of around .375 for him.
7. Thompson - Sure he is a little old for A but he has been dominant so far this year.
8. Frazier - Hopefully he can hit in the minors. A little older than Mesoraco so I give him the nod.
9. Francisco - Hopefully he developes a little better strike zone knowledge.
10. Mesoraco - He has a long way to go. Hopefully he developes nicely with the Reds.
11. Lecure - I think he could be a sloid starter in the bigs for quite a few seasons.
12. Wood - What happened to the pitcher who was dominant his rookie season?

I have Valaika low because he's older and doesn't have the defense to stay at short. While I have never seen him play, I have my doubts whether he can play any position, based on what I've read of him.

Also, you got to give Mesoraco some more props because of the potential he has. At least that's what I think.

[icehole3]

Thats way too high for Mesoraco, lets give the kid at least the rookie league to get his feet wet, he's so young. Fisher dominated Dayton so its a 2 year wonder.

[Sea Ray]

Thats way too high for Mesoraco, lets give the kid at least the rookie league to get his feet wet, he's so young. Fisher dominated Dayton so its a 2 year wonder.

I agree. You can't be a position player prospect until you've at least hit with a wooden bat

[HokieRed]

What's the case for Watson being #3 or #4 when Rafael Gonzalez is not even on the list? Their numbers at Dayton are virtually identical, except that Gonzalez tends to go a little longer in each start, and Gonzalez is a year younger.

[Patrick Bateman]

What's the case for Watson being #3 or #4 when Rafael Gonzalez is not even on the list? Their numbers at Dayton are virtually identical, except that Gonzalez tends to go a little longer in each start, and Gonzalez is a year younger.

Watson has much better peripheral numbers.

Watson:

K/9: 10.52
BB/9: 1.66
HR/9: 0.97
GO/AO: 1.17

Gonzalez:

K/9: 5.40
BB/9: 2.88
HR/9: 1.34
GO/AO: 0.92

Gonzalez' ERA has not reflected how well he has actually pitched. With average luck, his ERA would take a massive increase. Gonzalez hasn't actually pitched that well. If he continues pitching of the similar quality, he will start giving up more runs and would not be much of a candidate to do well in Sarasota.

Watson on the other hand has deserved his great success. His numbers are not a mirage. His K's and BB's blow Gonzalez out of the water. It's not even close. These numbers are more indicative of his actual success. Given time, this will be shown. I'd expect Watson to be moved up to the next level in the near future.

[BigREDSfaninKY]

Votto will be called up any day now, so he and Bailey are off the list.

How do you see Votto being called up with Conine/Hatteberg still in Cincinnati? Expecting Hatteberg to be traded soon?

[Patrick Bateman]

Here's my list with Bailey and Votto excluded:

1. Jay Bruce - For the obvious reasons

2. Johnny Cueto - Has really brought it on lately. He's started to progress in Sarasota, is quite young, and has a nice ceiling. Even if he doesn't work out as a starter, I think he still has a bright future in the pen.

3. Devin Mesoraco - His immense upside puts him ahead of the rest IMO. He obviously hasn't played pro ball yet, but few of the Reds' other prospects have succeeded at high levels. He's not that far behind the rest of the bunch.

4. Drew Stubbs - I'm a big fan of his potential, and even though he has lacked any kind of success, I still think his ceiling warrants this spot over the others.

5. Sean Watson - Has basically dominated Dayton in every way possible. He also has a nice upside, and should stay as starter. He is more polished than many other prospects, so he should move pretty quickly.

6. Carlos Fisher - Big breakout year merits the big jump forward. His upside isn't huge (middle rotation), but as he's already having success in AA, he's closer than just about anybody in the system.

7. Travis Wood - the injuries have been frustrating, plus he has had major command issues this season, but those things are not major concerns yet. The injuries don't threaten his future, and he hasn't pitched that much this year to be worried with the command issues. The problem is that he has remained stagnant and becasue of his issues hasn't improved this season. Still, he has plenty of talent, so as long as he stays on the field, he's a breakout candidate.

8. Darryl Thompson - Nice to see him finally get some decent health. Dominated Dayton, and has been decent in Sarasota. He's got decent potential, he's just still pretty far away. Main concern is staying on the field.

9. Tyler Pelland - His move to the bullpen has finally made him real interseting again. Since his switch, he has shown the stong ability to strike out hitters, and his control has dramatically improved. I'm a real big fan of his. Of the Reds relief prospects, he has the most upside IMO, plus he's having success in AA.

10. Juan Francisco - He's got some massive power considering his age. He's extremely raw at the plate, but is very young, and is doing well in Dayton considering. He's a boom or bust type of guy, but he's got a very high ceiling. His development will be slow, but he's one to watch.

11. Todd Frazier - Walks and power. Two things I really like, and he has hit. I think he has a very interesting bat, and am quite interested in how he will do in pro ball. Hopefully, he can stick at 3rd.

12. Sam LeCure - Low upside, but has been decent in AA, just needs to continue refining his stuff and he should be a candiate for the back of the rotation.

13. Chris Valaika - I'm probably his biggest doubter on the zone. His stick has held up in the lower minors so far, but I find it a concern that he has struck out 5 times as often as he has walked. And in rookie ball last season it was 3 times as many. Considering his power potential is limited and he may not fit in the middle of the diamond, I don't see him as anything more than an utility infielder. My thinking is that as he moves up and faces advanced competition, he is going to have a huge trouble, and his agressive approach is going to work against him.

14. Calvin Medlock - I see a limited upside, but he has flat out dominated AA. Definitely needs to be promoted to see what he can do in AAA, and hopefully end the year in the majors to see what he can do because he isn't going to improve a whole lot from here. He may be nothing more than a middle guy, but he's very likely to make it, and should provide cheap production.

15. Kyle Lotzkar - Of course he's extremely raw, but I like the package he offers. With two potential plus pitches, I really like his upside as a power arm. Patience is required, but there's little depth in the system, so Lotzkar gets the nod. The final spot came down to Lotzkar and Ravin for me.