Chapman to bullpen now official

[RedEye]

Hold everything. Nothing is "official" yet about this decision.

https://twitter.com/m_sheldon

[bucksfan2]

I really don't understand this assertion that the Reds had question marks in their pen.

With Chapman, the Reds bullpen had the NL's best ERA (2.65) and 2nd best FIP (3.26).

Removing Chapman, the Reds bullpen had a 2.88 ERA and a 3.59 ERA. Those would have been good for 3rd and 4th in the NL respectively. Absent Chapman, we had one of the best bullpen's in the NL last year -- measured by actual runs or skills.

Now, we wouldn't have been replacing Chapman with replacement level performance. He have been replaced by, essentially, 30-40 more innings from each Broxton and Hoover.

Yes, without a doubt the bullpen is stronger with Chapman than without him. But the potential upgrade from Leake (or Arroyo if he falls apart again) to Chapaman is significantly greater than the downgrade from Chapman to his bullpen replacements. The Reds bullpen was, is and will be a strength of this team regardless of where Chapman spends his time this year.

If you don't believe that, please feel free to play around in my "projection machine" and test your assumptions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...0E&usp=sharing

Given the Reds odd fascination with Logan Ondrusek, putting Chapman back to the pen probably costs Hoover a spot. While the upgrade in the rotation may have very well been smaller than many of us hope, the upgrade in the pen is not nearly as big as people make it out to be.

I'm holding out hope that they're announcing the Kris Medlan plan.

I am holding out hope that Chapman closes the Reds 4th win in the World Series.

The problem with bullpens is that they are inconsistent and vary from year to year. I put more faith in live arms than I do era's. If you remove Chapman from the rotation then your giving more important innings to a guy like Ondrusek. He is pushed in the 7th inning or he his the RH reliever in the 8th.

I agree that the Reds have some kind of fascination with Ondrusek that I just don't understand. And I second the idea that I would like Hoover getting Ondrusek's innings but so far that hasn't happened. If you shorten the depth of the pen are your comfortable with Ondrusek or Simon getting important innings?

Would like to see Chapman get a chance to start. But I also think in a short series a pen like the Reds with Chapman shortens the game. Over the course of a season Mike Leake provides valuable innings and isn't a bad option to take the ball every 5 days and give you 200 IP. Chapman is a wild card, he could go boom as a starter or he could go bust. I don't have an issue with a team trying to win moving him back to the pen.

[RedEye]

I put more faith in live arms than I do era's.

That makes no sense. ERA is not a perfect stat, but at least it measures something.

[MikeThierry]

Is $30M what is owed to Tulowitzki?

I like the trade in theory, but I also recognize the Reds are tapped out. The only players Walt is going to trade for at this point are guys like Latos that are under control for awhile. The Reds still have guys on the horizon who are due some serious money. I don't see them adding a big contract.

I'm glad to see that the Tulo love is as fervent here as the hypothetical threads I'm seeing on the Cardinals boards.

[RedEye]

A pitcher is signed as a pitcher and then put in the role best for THEM. You know where that person feels the most comfortable and able to help the TEAM win.

Getting 200 innings of ace-like performance is far more likely to make a team win than 70 innings of a shutdown closer. Chapman might feel more comfortable now as a closer, but that's because he just did it last year. Choo feels more comfortable as a RF, but that doesn't mean he can't play CF, too. Broxton, Hoover et al. are more than capable of holding down the fort while the team sees what it has in Chapman. If he fails, he can always go back.

[RedsManRick]

I am holding out hope that Chapman closes the Reds 4th win in the World Series.

The problem with bullpens is that they are inconsistent and vary from year to year. I put more faith in live arms than I do era's. If you remove Chapman from the rotation then your giving more important innings to a guy like Ondrusek. He is pushed in the 7th inning or he his the RH reliever in the 8th.
.

Ondrusek should be the last man used in the pen. He should be pitching roughly 0 important innings, Chapman or not.

[RollyInRaleigh]

Chapman is no lock to give anyone 200 innings of quality starting pitching. He is highly likely to give the Reds 70 dominant innings as a closer to go with a very solid rotation.

[RedEye]

Chapman is no lock to give anyone 200 innings of quality starting pitching. He is highly likely to give the Reds 70 dominant innings as a closer to go with a very solid rotation.

Never claimed that. Claimed it was worth checking. Broxton, Hoover, Marshall et al. will be just fine shutting the door regardless of where Chapman pitches.

[Vottomatic]

If Lohse signs with Cincinnati, I love this hypothetical move, as it makes both pen and rotation among the best in the league.

If they move Chapman back to the pen for Leake, I think it's a meh move. Chapman makes the pen the best in the league and Leake's very good as a fifth starter, but Chapman's upside could have made him a true TOR guy. A meh move at best.

On another note, how about a three-way blockbuster?

Detroit deals Rick Porcello to Colorado, along with reliever Al Alburquerque, and prospects OF Avisail Garcia and IF/OF Nick Castellanos.
Cincinnati deals Chapman and SS Cozart to Detroit, along with Ondrusek to Colorado.
Colorado deals Troy Tulowitski to Cincinnati, along with $30 million

Reds have their number two hitter for the next decade or so. As a SS.

Choo CF
Tulo SS
Votto 1B
Ludwick LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 3B
Frazier 3B
Mesigan C

That lineup has no holes at all and each position (aside from LF) could very well have an All Star berth. That'd mean no re-signing of Choo and perhaps they'd also lose one of the starters, but, with Stephenson, Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani, and others on the horizon, that would be a gamble I'd take, personally.

Check out Tulo's contract: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...html#contracts

........and write that trade off. LOL.

It goes through 2020. He'll be making $20M per season starting in 2015 and thru 2019. Yikes. He'll be 34 years old during that 2019 season.

[Vottomatic]

Never claimed that. Claimed it was worth checking. Broxton, Hoover, Marshall et al. will be just fine shutting the door regardless of where Chapman pitches.

I want Hoover at Louisville in the starting rotation. He was a pretty good starter in the Braves farm system, where he started most of the time. His e.r.a. never surpassed 3.50 in his minor league days. He'd be more valuable as a starter.

[MikeThierry]

Check out Tulo's contract: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...html#contracts

........and write that trade off. LOL.

It goes through 2020. He'll be making $20M per season starting in 2015 and thru 2019. Yikes. He'll be 34 years old during that 2019 season.

I never really thought his contract was that bad in terms of how contracts are compared to other elite level players. The only thing I don't like about the contract is that you can only trade him once during the length of the contract.

[RedEye]

I want Hoover at Louisville in the starting rotation. He was a pretty good starter in the Braves farm system, where he started most of the time. His e.r.a. never surpassed 3.50 in his minor league days. He'd be more valuable as a starter.

I don't think Hoover is needed at Louisville when we've already got Corcino and Cingrani waiting in the wings. I can't believe you would argue Hoover should be changed to a SP but not Chapman!

[klw]

Hold everything. Nothing is "official" yet about this decision.

https://twitter.com/m_sheldon

I am shocked, shocked I tell you that the Reds would make an announcement today with both guys going tomorrow after Leake gave up 7 (?) in his last start. Would have to imagine they would want to see how both guys are progressing before committing to anything.

[WildcatFan]

Do we really know for sure that Chapman is built mentally and physically to pitch 200 plus innings per year plus postseason?

Nope.

And we never will.

[traderumor]

Still debating Vulture's gossip?