Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return?

[Kc61]

This is a great post. Stubbs biggest defensive asset is speed, and that is his main defensive asset. He is actually one of the worst centerfielders I have watched in terms of reading the ball off the bat. Hence a lot of those shallower balls you mention that he pulls up on. Stubbs is also below average around the wall, he tends to shy away from making contact with the outfield wall it seems, this negates his speed on some balls. Maybe it is just me, but how often do you see Stubbs get to a ball in GABP that most average CFers wouldn't get to?

Bruce gets great reads off the bat, but doesn't have quite the speed of Stubbs. Bruce is capable of playing a league average or above average defense in CF in our ballpark (not a ton of ground to cover). I have never seen Frazier play in RF, but he is athletic enough to be capable of playing a decent RF, now whether he has the other skills outside of athletic ability, I do not know.

The offensive trade off far outweighs the defensive trade off in my mind. Now if we are playing in a cavernous park, I leave Stubbs in CF.

But this isn't spring training. Whether these folks have the tools to play these positions is one piece of the equation. Whether the Reds would make that change now is very different story.

There's the famous situation when a Tigers player, Mickey Stanley, in 1968 was moved to shortstop to replace Ray Oyler, who was hitting below the Mendoza line. Stanley was moved there to get more offense in the lineup and he had never played SS before in the bigs. He played shortstop creditably at the end of the regular season and stayed there through the World Series.

I don't think the Reds management would have played Stanley at shortstop.

[BCubb2003]

This reminds me of how Dusty would never replace Marshall as closer with Chapman.

[AmarilloRed]

This would be a very good discussion for the Reds to have with Bruce in spring training; I don't expect them to discuss it in the middle of a pennant race.

[reds44]

The Cardinals won the World Series last year with Matt Holiday in LF and Lance Berkman in RF.

[AtomicDumpling]

The Cardinals won the World Series last year with Matt Holiday in LF and Lance Berkman in RF.

We have a winner!

[jojo]

The Cardinals won the World Series last year with Matt Holiday in LF and Lance Berkman in RF.

Neither played centerfield and both were better bats than Bruce/Frazier.

[reds44]

Neither played centerfield and both were better bats than Bruce/Frazier.

I'd be willing to bet all 3 of Ludwick/Bruce/Frazier are better defenders than those 3.

[Jamz]

Neither played centerfield and both were better bats than Bruce/Frazier.

While that may be true, it's not like it's a HUGE difference:

2011
Holliday - .912 OPS (154 wRC+)
Berkman - .959 OPS (159 wRC+)

2012
Frazier - .904 OPS (140 wRC+)
Bruce - .858 OPS (124 wRC+)

The main difference in offensive output in the outfield, though, is going to come when comparing Ludwick and Jay:

2011
Jay - .768 OPS (112 wRC+)

2012
Ludwick - .912 OPS (140 wRC+)

So by moving Bruce to the CF where he won't be a liability but he won't be great either, and having Frazier and Ludwick manning the corners (neither of which should be liabilities either, though not defensive stalwarts) you get a combined OPS of 2.674 for the Reds and 2.639 for the Cards...and a combined wRC+ of 404 for the Reds and 425 for the Cards.

Ultimately not much difference...but I highly, highly doubt that you're going to get better defence out of Holliday, Jay and Berkman than Ludwick, Bruce and Frazier.

[REDREAD]

Have people seen Bruce in right this year? No way I want that defense in center, ever... never ever.

Have people seen Frazier in left this year? No way I want that defense in right, ever... Never ever.

This team is 26 games over .500 and in first by 7 games because of their run prevention. Messing with that is just plain stupid.

I agree. Bruce was tried in CF when he first came up.. He's below average there. Bruce is above average in RF however.

More to this game, other than OPS.. Right now, defense in RF and CF is a relative strength.. I don't want to weaken both those spots.
This team has enough offense to carry Stubbs' bat for the rest of the year.

IMO, this experiment has too much downside to try it. It might work, but we only have a 6 game lead.. I don't want to see a few games tossed away by players playing out of position (which is certainly possible).
I also think our young pitchers (Latos, Leake, and Homer) could potentially really feel the impact of this.. Heck, even though Cueto has controlled his emotions better this year, he'd get frustrated as well. Arroyo.. well.. with his fly ball tendencies, I want the best OF defense posssible. Heck, Latos seems to give up his share of flyball outs too (not looking up the numbers, just my gut feel)

If the Reds really want to try this, next years' spring training is the time to do it, not now. I'm glad Dusty shot down this idea.

[REDREAD]

Did I say stick with it if it doesn't work? Would a one week trial really lead to the end of our season? Stubbs is awful in center right now. Fact. This team should be willing to think outside the box to try and solve holes. If it doesn't work, then kill the idea. But I don't see the harm in trying it.

The problem I see is that we only have a 6 game lead.

This experiment (even if for only 7-10 days) could result in an extra 3 losses under the right circumstances.

Not to mention, Bruce has been heating up offensively of late. Throwing him into a new position might impact his offense.

These ideas remind me of the time the Reds tried to move Aaron Boone to 2b.
He had the atheletism to do it, and he had all spring training to get ready.. yet he never got comfortable, and it impacted his offense.

If the Reds do nothing (leave Stubbs/Heisey in CF), they probably win the division.. Why risk giving the Cards a few games on defensive miscues?

Let's say the experiment gave passable results.. Would we really want to put that weak defensive OF on the field for playoff games? The main correlators for WS winning teams is defense and bullpen.. Why weaken the defense?

If the Reds were trailing the division leader by 4 games at this point, I could see trying this experiment as a desperation move, but I don't want to tamper with success now.

[reds44]

Playing Jay Bruce in CF would never cost the Reds 3 games in a week. Again, he did it in the minors and he's done it in the majors. Despite some hiccups this year, he's been one of the best defensive RFers in baseball over the course of his career. It's not exactly Javier Valentin played 3rd base.

[Plus Plus]

Playing Jay Bruce in CF would never cost the Reds 3 games in a week. Again, he did it in the minors and he's done it in the majors. Despite some hiccups this year, he's been one of the best defensive RFers in baseball over the course of his career. It's not exactly Javier Valentin played 3rd base.

Bruce has been a negative UZR defender for two seasons now, both exclusively in right field- for what that's worth.

[dfs]

Darren Lewis - Marvin Benard - Daryl Hamilton - Calvin Murray - Tsuyoshi Shinjo - Corey Patterson - Juan Pierre - Willy Taveras - Drew Stubbs.

I just don't see it happening.

[reds44]

Bruce has been a negative UZR defender for two seasons now, both exclusively in right field- for what that's worth.

He was a +3.6 in CF and a -5.1 in RF as a rookie too. Maybe he's better in CF.

[reds44]

Also, (correct me if I'm wrong) it's now been stated in this thread that Ludwick, Stubbs, and Bruce are all negative defenders this year according to UZR. Wouldn't that blow a hole in the "don't move anybody because the Reds play good OF defense" theory?