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Thread: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

  1. #16
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    I really would like to dump Arroyo, but it ain't happening. Bailey is in the rotation, while Chapman is in the minors.
    I think Arroyo is going to be a problem all season. He's the 6th best starter on the team. His salary pencils him in as a sure fire SP.

    There will be injuries, and the Reds should and probably will do what the options will dictate, and keep everyone and postpone the decision making until real performance decides.

    I also agree that the bullpen is a problem.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    I would still give Chapman a shot.

  4. #18
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Would anyone put Arroyo through waivers? I was thinking about that last night, that's not a bad option either.

  5. #19
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Would anyone put Arroyo through waivers? I was thinking about that last night, that's not a bad option either.
    If he's claimed, you'd need to pay all of his deferred money on his way to another team.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  6. #20
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    You know, at this point don't the Reds already consider that money spent? Now its just about trying to get the most production for that money. If keeping him in the rotation over a more productive pitcher hurts the team overall...it wouldn't surprise me all that much to see them move Bronson (to the pen or another team). That money is spent either way. If moving him out and bringing in someone to replace him would end up costing even MORE money...then I could see the hesitation. But his "replacement" is already a sunk cost too in Chapman.

  7. #21
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    You know, at this point don't the Reds already consider that money spent? Now its just about trying to get the most production for that money. If keeping him in the rotation over a more productive pitcher hurts the team overall...it wouldn't surprise me all that much to see them move Bronson (to the pen or another team). That money is spent either way. If moving him out and bringing in someone to replace him would end up costing even MORE money...then I could see the hesitation. But his "replacement" is already a sunk cost too in Chapman.
    Well, paying $15 Million over the period from 2014 to 2021 is diffferent than paying it all right now isn't it? The cost of your house is money already spent. Why not just pay it off today? Its the same thing right?
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  8. #22
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Well, paying $15 Million over the period from 2014 to 2021 is diffferent than paying it all right now isn't it? The cost of your house is money already spent. Why not just pay it off today? Its the same thing right?
    No, of course it isn't the same thing. That's why it's still a choice you hate to make. But if you have the funds and it helps in the short and long run...sometimes you've got to bite the bullet.

    That being said, I don't do it. I still think that Bronson bounces back.

  9. #23
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    No, of course it isn't the same thing. That's why it's still a choice you hate to make. But if you have the funds and it helps in the short and long run...sometimes you've got to bite the bullet.

    That being said, I don't do it. I still think that Bronson bounces back.
    My assumption is they don't have the funds or they wouldn't have negotiated a deferred $15 Million in the first place.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  10. #24
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My assumption is they don't have the funds or they wouldn't have negotiated a deferred $15 Million in the first place.
    That's the trap of deferred money. It is the gift that keeps on giving. Aren't the Reds still paying deferred money to guys like Junior and Larkin? Or have those deferred payments finally come off the books?
    “I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane

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  11. #25
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    That's the trap of deferred money. It is the gift that keeps on giving. Aren't the Reds still paying deferred money to guys like Junior and Larkin? Or have those deferred payments finally come off the books?
    I think they are still paying Griffey, but Lindner was smart enough to insist on funding an annuity over the life of his contract so it shouldn't be a problem for the current budget. Don't know about Larkin, but I'd assume the same.

    The problem with Arroyo's deal is that the contract is still going, so even if the Reds are funding as they go, its far from all funded.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  12. #26
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My assumption is they don't have the funds or they wouldn't have negotiated a deferred $15 Million in the first place.
    Yes and no, they may not have the funds to pay him the deferred money + the salary he'll earn this year. They may have the funds for just the deferred money.
    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRed27 View Post
    Honest I can't say it any better than Hoosier Red did in his post, he sums it up basically perfectly.

  13. #27
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Yes and no, they may not have the funds to pay him the deferred money + the salary he'll earn this year. They may have the funds for just the deferred money.
    That's a good thought. If they funded say $3 Million last year and save $6.5 this year on the payroll, they would only need to come up with another $6 Million or so.

    Still doubtful IMO. I still think Arroyo can be a solid but overpaid starter. Chapman hasn't proven anything as far as starting goes IMO.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  14. #28
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Start him in the #4 spot and be done with it.

    Bailey showed last year that everything is in place for him to be arguably the second best starter on the Reds 2012 roster behind Mat Latos.
    Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

    I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.

  15. #29
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    I would say put him in the rotation. I think he's likely to be a 4-ish FIP pitcher which is pretty useful depending on how many innings he throws.

  16. #30
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by kheidg- View Post
    Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

    I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.
    I wouldn't. Outside of IP, I'd say over the past three years, Bailey is pretty much what a pitcher of league average skill looks like. Leake probably squeaks in there as well.

    I'd say that's likely to continue.

    Arroyo has been more "league below average."

    I'd say that's likely to continue as well.

    I think Cueto is a better pitcher than Bailey but he (Cueto) has league average to a bit better than league average skill.


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