I no longer have confidence in Aaron Harang

[savafan]

I hate to say it, but he's either messed up mechanically, mentally or teams have just figured out how to hit him. It bothers me that, from my perspective, our opening day pitcher could likely be the weakest link in the starting rotation. I almost expect him to give up 4-7 runs every time out in 3-5 innings whenever he pitches anymore.

[RedsManRick]

I hate to say it, but he's either messed up mechanically, mentally or teams have just figured out how to hit him. It bothers me that, from my perspective, our opening day pitcher could likely be the weakest link in the starting rotation. I almost expect him to give up 4-7 runs every time out in 3-5 innings whenever he pitches anymore.

I'm curious, obviously this was informed in part by his last two seasons, but was spring training part of it too?

He's admitted to having changed his mechanics over the years and that he's worked hard to get back to his mechanics from when he was more successful. And so far this spring, reports have had him w/ regained velocity and stuff.

Yes, he's gotten hit around, but that doesn't mean much given the context. The environment is extremely hitter friendly. Hitters usually start out more ready than pitchers. And usually players are working on things, not just going all out to win the game.

I think Joe Sheehan did a good job explain why ST are irrelevant in his chat on BP today.

Geer (Bimringham, AL): Speaking of the value of spring stats, surely something positive can be read into Heyward walking so much this spring, no?

Joe Sheehan: No. Who is he facing? What are their goals for the day? Only in rare cases are you facing major-league pitchers trying to beat the other team, and once that's gone, the stats disconnect from the game being played.

On any given day in March, some vast majority of pitchers are going to the mound working on something. You only hear about this when they get hammered.

Bill (New Mexico): "On any given day in March, some vast majority of pitchers are going to the mound working on something." Right, got that, but is the same true of hitters? In other words, if some pitcher looks really GOOD in the spring, how much of that is attributable to the hitters "working on something" rather than to the possibility that the guy on the mound has discovered something and turned nasty? (Add me to the "great to have you back" crowd.)

Joe Sheehan: I elected to not type out the converse, but it is also true.

Statistics are only meaningful when generated in the process of trying to win baseball games. That's the most concise way I can put this.

[TheNext44]

I hate to say it, but he's either messed up mechanically, mentally or teams have just figured out how to hit him. It bothers me that, from my perspective, our opening day pitcher could likely be the weakest link in the starting rotation. I almost expect him to give up 4-7 runs every time out in 3-5 innings whenever he pitches anymore.

One other option, and I hate to mention it, but maybe Keith Law was right? Maybe Harang never really was that good and was getting by on smoke and mirrors his first few years?

He doesn't throw that hard, doesn't have great movement, but did have great control, especially inside the strikezone. So as he got older, as nearly all pitchers do, he lost a bit on his fastball, lost some movement on his slider, and can only get by so far with his control. If it's off at all, he turns into Josh Fogg. (just kidding)

Look at his peripherals:

His K's are down by around 10%, his BB's up by around 15% and his HR's up by 40%. This has resulted in his FIP up by around 20%.

Personally, when I first saw him pitched, I wondered how he was doing it. He just didn't seem to have that great of stuff. I think that is finally catching up with him, and I could see it getting worse each year.

[Homer Bailey]

Not basing this off just today obviously, but I feel the same way as Savafan. He certainly is not our best starter anymore.

[Will M]

before he had an appendectomy he was on pace for 200+ IP. His ERA+ was 102 for the year.

name a team in baseball where a guy who pitches 200 innings with an ERA+ of 102 is not one of the five starters. there isn't one.

[wheels]

Wait....Are we calling for this moratoruim on Harang because of won loss record?

I didn't see anything really earth shatteringly awful in his numbers from last year.

He gave up quite a few hits, but really I don't see any need for all of the melodrama.

4.21 ERA, he only walked 43 batters, and he's no Eric Milton as he gave up only 24 big flies. He did have the highest BABIP against in his career career with the Reds at .335, which could make a case for being unlucky.

Wow. How long has it been since someone gnashed teeth over a 4.20ish era in Cincy? I remember when people were thrilled that the Reds signed a guy with a 4.76.

Oh wait....Won loss record and spring training performance trumps all.

[Superdude]

One other option, and I hate to mention it, but maybe Keith Law was right? Maybe Harang never really was that good and was getting by on smoke and mirrors his first few years?

Look at his numbers from '05-'07 ...you can't smoke and mirrors yourself into a borderline cy young candidate for almost 700 innings. If I remember right, Harang's slider used to be just off the table nasty

[wheels]

Look at his numbers from '05-'07 ...you can't smoke and mirrors yourself into a borderline cy young candidate for almost 700 innings. If I remember right, Harang's slider used to be just off the table nasty

Exactly. The guy has been an absolute horse his entire career.

Maybe the workload has nicked him up a bit, but he's still one heckuva reliable pitcher and I'm happy he's been here.

For so long, he was ALL they had.

[TheNext44]

before he had an appendectomy he was on pace for 200+ IP. His ERA+ was 102 for the year.

name a team in baseball where a guy who pitches 200 innings with an ERA+ of 102 is not one of the five starters. there isn't one.

I don't think he should be waived, but he clearly is not an Ace anymore. He's solid #3 starter.

I don't agree with Savafan's notion that I expect him to give up "4-7 runs every time out in 3-5 innings whenever he pitches." But I see him doing that often enough to make him an average pitcher instead of a great one.

Not So Bold Prediction:

At the end of 2010, Aaron Harang's ERA will be higher than Bronson Arroyo's ERA.

This is not so bold, since it has happened three of the four years that they have pitched together for the Reds. And I think this add more fuel to the argument that Arroyo has been a better pitcher overall during those 4 years, than Harang has been.

[Scrap Irony]

Fearless Prediction #2: Harang's ERA will be the highest among the top four starters and may be higher than the fifth starter (Chapman, especially) as well.

[mth123]

My prediction.

Harang will be a solid mid-rotation guy who provides innings and a mid 4's ERA until he's dealt at the deadline. The Reds won't get much for him though. He won't be the reason that the Reds finish below .500 yet again.

[Spring~Fields]

Too soon for me to tell, though not very encouraging. I want to think he will be alright, if they don't use him in relief or bring him back after a long rain delay.

[VR]

He's gone from best stuff on the starting staff to about #7, and his stuff hasn't changed too much. That's a good thing, and also a good reason he should be a prime candidate to trade ASAP.

[oneupper]

Aaron is going to be 32 in May. I think we have to consider that his best years may well be behind him.
This might have happened even without the famous relief stint in San Diego. Some careers (many in fact) are simply like that.

[LoganBuck]

Not that I am a giant Aaron Harang fan at this point, but it is "dead arm time", Bailey got whacked the time before last as well. Leake, and Wood last time around. It is a phenomena of spring training. I bet he bounces back next time.