Projected Starters Debate

[icehole3]

It's March 31 2008 and it's like a chinese fire drill down in Florida and the Reds are trying to get their minor league rosters set. Who goes where and more important who gets the coveted starting positions and youre the Minor leaguer coordinator and your job is on the line, who starts? This just a hypothetical pick by yours truly...thought I'd take a crack at it. Feel free to smack me in the head I can take it.





Dayton Dragons Starters

LF Bartles_CF KJones _RF Phipps
3B Waring_SS Frazier _2B Soto _1B McKennon
C Mesoraco _ACE Lotzkar _2SP Montano _3SP Del Rosario _4SP Chiu _5SP Machuca _CLR Valiquette

Sarasota Starters

LF Heisey _CF Stubbs _RF Kainer
3B Francisco _SS Cozart _2B Turner _1B Parker
C Kroski _ACE Gonzalez _2SP Smith _3SP Webb _4SP Guerrero _5SP Gressick _CLR Geronimo


Chattanooga Starters

LF Strait _CF Holden _RF Dorn
3B Cruz _SS Valaika _2B DeJesus _1B Piepkorn
C Tatum _ACE Thompson_2SP Manuel _3SP Fisher _4SP Vazquez _5SP Ondrusek _CLR Lutz


Louisville Starters

LF Coats _CF Dickerson _RF Bruce
3B Griffin _SS Janish _2B Bolivar _1B Rosales
C Hanigan _ACE Cueto _2SP Maloney _3SP Lecure _4SP Avery _5SP Gardner _CLR Roenicke

some guys will get shorted but get advanced to their respected levels just not starters, I pretty much based everything on stats to start the debate.

[mth123]

Good thread idea. Using your framework as a starting point, here is what I would change.

1. I'd flip flop Frazier and Cozart. Frazier looks like a fast track bat and a jump to A+ probably wouldn't hurt him. and Cozart had only a partial season at Dayton and it wouldn't hurt him to start there again.

2. I think the Reds will have at least one journeyman vet in the AAA rotation probably Shearn or maybe a 6 year free agent. LeCure probably need more time in AA and Manuel probably stays in the pen. They may add a 2nd vet and turn Gardner loose as well.

3. Vasquez needs to be on the 40 man and won't make it. Rule 5 loss?

4. Smit and Jukich fit in the AA rotation. There is a glut there. Some one goes in a deal. I'm guessing Ondrusek. He's pitching in fall leagues. Possibly to up his value???

[Kc61]

I would think Brandon Waring will get a spot somewhere, no? Justin Reed?

[icehole3]

Had to edit the Dayton lineup I forgot about Waring, who I like as the Prospect to watch in 2008.

[icehole3]

good eye KC

[icehole3]

mth, just looking at the starters, what postion is the strongest thru the minors?

[Kc61]

Also, most of the Reds minor leagues use a DH rule, at least in some games. Makes sense to add a player at each level for the DH spot.

[mth123]

mth, just looking at the starters, what postion is the strongest thru the minors?

Probably OF. Bruce alone makes that happen IMO. I also think Frazier and maybe Waring and Francisco will eventually end-up there. Behind them you have Dorn, Stubbs and Dickerson and even Rosales, Valaika and Griffin as probable multi position guys who play some OF and that pretty much represents all the best position players in the system.

[OnBaseMachine]

Todd Frazier should be in Sarasota, at worst, to begin the 2008 season. And Drew Stubbs should be in Chattanooga. He'll be 23 years old, no need to keep him in a very pitcher friendly league at age 23.

[dougdirt]

Todd Frazier should be in Sarasota, at worst, to begin the 2008 season. And Drew Stubbs should be in Chattanooga. He'll be 23 years old, no need to keep him in a very pitcher friendly league at age 23.

I agree completely, but I bet neither happens.

[mth123]

Todd Frazier should be in Sarasota, at worst, to begin the 2008 season. And Drew Stubbs should be in Chattanooga. He'll be 23 years old, no need to keep him in a very pitcher friendly league at age 23.

Agree on Frazier. Disagree on Stubbs. Stubbs hasn't shown enough with the stick to justify skipping a level.

[mth123]

Looking at this again and I don't see Travis Wood. He starts out in A+ IMO.

If Sean Watson isn't in a rotation, he's a closer someplace.

[Kc61]

Agree on Frazier. Disagree on Stubbs. Stubbs hasn't shown enough with the stick to justify skipping a level.

Agree. (Fact that FSL is a pitchers league doesn't justify skipping the league -- it didn't seem to bother Jay Bruce very much.)

The Frazier/Cozart thing is interesting. Maybe because he signed early, Cozart played in the more advanced league this year. He's also the better fielding shortstop. Yet it's hard to see keeping Frazier's bat at the Midwest level for the next year. He just appears to be too advanced.

[dougdirt]

Agree. (Fact that FSL is a pitchers league doesn't justify skipping the league -- it didn't seem to bother Jay Bruce very much.)

The Frazier/Cozart thing is interesting. Maybe because he signed early, Cozart played in the more advanced league this year. He's also the better fielding shortstop. Yet it's hard to see keeping Frazier's bat at the Midwest level for the next year. He just appears to be too advanced.

Comparing other prospects to Jay Bruce isn't really a good way to look at things. Since 2000 began Jay Bruce is just 1 of 2 guys 20 or younger to OPS over .900 in that league and no one was within 40 points of him.

[icehole3]

I felt Chattanooga's rotation would go something like this

Thompson
Manuel
Fisher
Vazquez
Ondrusek
Wood
Watson

some sort of a combination of 7 guys