2011 Season Slipping Away....

[Edskin]

For the first time this year I am genuinely concerned that this team won't be in contention late this summer.

I predicted 87-92 wins and a return to the post season. I didn't think we'd win more games than we did last year, but I was fairly confident we could repeat our success.

My fears were....

1. The really young guys that played well last year would get exposed (Wood, Leake, Chapman).

2. The really old guys (Rolen, Renteria, etc) would run out of gas.

3. The magic/chemistry from last year would fade.

I thought we were looking at a 78-82 win season if those things happened-- and through 60 games my fears are being realized.

My personal arbitrary barometer for whether or not you are in contention is this-- would one reasonable hot streak get you in the thick of things. At this point with 100 games left and 5.5 game lead to overcome, the answer is still yes.

If we rattled off 8 of 10 or 12 of 16 or something like that we'd be in fine shape. But we are right at the edge. Another lousy two week stretch or a terrible road trip and this season might be toast.

My confidence is almost totally gone, but I'm not hopeless yet because I still think that maybe this rotation is due to come around, but we truly are running out of time. It is entirely possible that we will be totally out of the race by this time next month. If the 2011 Reds are going to be a factor in 2011, it must start now.

[klw]

If the Reds do fade much further, do they become deadline sellers? If so who is available? Coco is the obvious as well as the catchers. Otherwise Renteria, Cairo may be the only others. Perhaps Phillips would be the biggest draw if they can't ink him to a LTC.

[kbrake]

I'm right there with you Edskin as far as where my confidence is right now. The injuries are just piling up and the depth was good if it was temporary but right now we are counting on guys like Horst and Fisher for way too much. It would be nice to add a piece like Reyes but if the pitching doesn't get turned around I don't know that there is a point.

This team desperately needs Volquez to come back and be much better, same with Aroldis Chapman. Homer Bailey has to get healthy and stay healthy and so does LeCure in the pen. I'd look at trading Hanigan and prospects for pitching or for Reyes if the pitching comes around in the next two weeks.

When Bailey comes back I'd send Wood down over Leake. Not a fan of either right now but Wood was just brutal today. Last season in April Dusty had a closed door meeting and let this team have it. This year they just seem like they expect it to all just turn around at some point. They seem lifeless at times though I guess that is what happens when you and everyone else knows you have to score 6 runs a night to win.

[oneupper]

Brewers and Cardinals.
They are better than last year and probably better overall than the Reds.

Last year the REDS offense was much better than either of those two.
The pitching was on par with the Cards' (Brewers were atrocious).

This year, the Stl offense is superior and that's without Pujols producing yet.
The REDS are better than the Brewers, but not by that much.
In pitching the REDS are the worst of the three and its not close. (Brewers might be the best this time).

In addition, Brewers and Cards are finding ways to win. Reds...not.
We all saw this weekend. Milwaukee gave up a five run lead late today also...but they managed to win.

It doesn't seem to be our year.

[MikeThierry]

One, you mentioned the Cards and Brewers were finding ways to win. To me, that is one of the biggest differences between last years Reds and this years Reds. I was highly frustrated last year that every time the Cards seemed to go on a nice run, I would look up at the box score and see that the Reds were finding ways to win. That there were different players contributing to the Reds success almost on a nightly basis. I just don't see that same drive this year with the Reds. Am I off base?

[reds44]

Still not concerned. Extremely frustrated though.

[757690]

One, you mentioned the Cards and Brewers were finding ways to win. To me, that is one of the biggest differences between last years Reds and this years Reds. I was highly frustrated last year that every time the Cards seemed to go on a nice run, I would look up at the box score and see that the Reds were finding ways to win. That there were different players contributing to the Reds success almost on a nightly basis. I just don't see that same drive this year with the Reds. Am I off base?

I kinda agree. That does seem to be the difference between the Reds this year and last, the Reds last year were finding ways to win.

But I wouldn't attribute it to drive or desire. I think it has more to due with the Reds being beat up right now. They were finding ways to win until the injuries in the middle of a grueling road trip exploded on them.

They started the #10 starter on their depth chart the other day, and had to call up the #12 reliever on their depth chart, a guy whom was signed just to fill out their AAA pen.

[Ghosts of 1990]

It would be nice if Homer Bailey could stay healthy for more than 2 weeks at a time and Edinson Volquez could be comparable in value to a Josh Hamilton. Then we'd only have the normal amount of problems to worry about. Those two giving us nothing combined with the stuff we knew would be a problem (Rolen, Gomes, shortstop, no real depth or bench) is really crippling us. I agree. The next two weeks (including west coast swing) show us if we're for real, not the last two weeks.

[VR]

Feels like following the Reds circa 2005. Lousy starting pitching resulting in always playing catch up. Multiple chances to 'tie it up' in late innings after scratching a few runs out, but only convert 1 of every 4 times.....an average conversion rate in MLB.

Even the quality starts are coming after giving up a 3 spot in the 1st....which is exasperating for the offense every night.

[Edskin]

And while we haven't pitched well at all lately, it hasn't mattered even when we have...

2-1 loss to Cleveland, 2-1 loss to Atlanta, and the 19 inning loss to the Phils. Team is not picking each other up like it did last year.

Things just aren't fluid or smooth--- everything seems like a struggle.

[Kc61]

One high caliber starting pitcher (even a veteran number 2 starter) and a solid hitting LF would make a dramatic difference in this team IMO.

They have the depth to trade. The AAA lineup is filled with talent, somebody must want these guys. You can't leave them at AAA forever.

The Reds just seem unwilling to deal to fill holes. It's too bad, because the team does have talent.

I could even live with the SS situation if the other holes were addressed. At least they have a superb defender at SS. And Cozart at AAA seems like a solid talent.

But they need to add a starting hitter and a starting pitcher. It's so obvious. Maybe it's money. But the team sat still this off-season and seems content to sit still.

[kaldaniels]

I kinda agree. That does seem to be the difference between the Reds this year and last, the Reds last year were finding ways to win.

But I wouldn't attribute it to drive or desire. I think it has more to due with the Reds being beat up right now. They were finding ways to win until the injuries in the middle of a grueling road trip exploded on them.

They started the #10 starter on their depth chart the other day, and had to call up the #12 reliever on their depth chart, a guy whom was signed just to fill out their AAA pen.

And the amazing thing is, come July 1st, everyone could be back and healthy. Just a whole lot of "non-severe" (gulp) injuries and problems going on now.

[kbrake]

One high caliber starting pitcher (even a veteran number 2 starter) and a solid hitting LF would make a dramatic difference in this team IMO.

They have the depth to trade. The AAA lineup is filled with talent, somebody must want these guys. You can't leave them at AAA forever.

The Reds just seem unwilling to deal to fill holes. It's too bad, because the team does have talent.

I could even live with the SS situation if the other holes were addressed. At least they have a superb defender at SS. And Cozart at AAA seems like a solid talent.

But they need to add a starting hitter and a starting pitcher. It's so obvious. Maybe it's money. But the team sat still this off-season and seems content to sit still.

I think a very big part of it is money.

[Kc61]

I think a very big part of it is money.

You are undoubtedly correct. It's a shame, though, because the needs have been very obvious. A couple of key signings/trades would have made a world of difference IMO.

I wonder, though, how the team plans to deal with all the AAA talent. Francisco is hitting .330. Alonso is over .320. Frazier has rebounded this year. Cozart is hitting well and seems to be a solid package at SS. Mesoraco is the best of the bunch.

The Reds have to do something with these guys. Promote them soon or trade them. They can't leave them at AAA forever.

[MikeThierry]

And the amazing thing is, come July 1st, everyone could be back and healthy. Just a whole lot of "non-severe" (gulp) injuries and problems going on now.

Do you think it will be too late by then?