if choo returns to cincinnati in 2014.....

[toledodan]

does he play left with hamilton starting in center. i would say yes and we could let that continue tonight. the left field production has been bad why not.

[REDREAD]

My guess if Choo resigns: Hamilton starts the season at AAA, and stays there until he blows the doors off and forces a recall.
Hamilton's schedule to become a regular gets pushed to 2015.

Ludwick is getting paid a lot of money, he's going to play next year. I think Ludwick will be at least adequate next year.

[BungleBengals]

My guess if Choo resigns: Hamilton starts the season at AAA, and stays there until he blows the doors off and forces a recall.
Hamilton's schedule to become a regular gets pushed to 2015.

Ludwick is getting paid a lot of money, he's going to play next year. I think Ludwick will be at least adequate next year.

Why not just keep Hamilton up in the bigs when we resign Choo? Platoon him with Ludwick. Night games and against whatever pitchers Ludwick is good against then you can start him, otherwise start Billy. This way Billy gets a feel for major league pitching, but isn't subjected to the pressures of leading off or playing everyday like Stubbs and Cozart were. It is no secret that he struggled this year hitting in the minors, but he turned it on when he got comfortable, why not give him time to get comfortable in the bigs next year? Plus you will have him on your bench to PR in close games too. He would not get the huge amount of AB to 'develop' in the minors, but how much developing can you do against minor league pitching? Look at Reynolds. He had a nice ERA and a nice record in the minors, but is struggling somewhat here in the bigs. Do we want Billy to develop with pitching like that or to develop against actual major league pitchers?

[klw]

If they did resign Choo, they would likely be able to find a taker for Ludwick in a trade. He will be on a one year deal and bats who are not butchers in the field are in short supply. The return may not be great but it is unlikely that the Reds would be "saddled" with his salary if they went that route. Could also keep him and move him at the deadline if Hamilton shows consistently that he is ready.

[scott91575]

Why not just keep Hamilton up in the bigs when we resign Choo? Platoon him with Ludwick. Night games and against whatever pitchers Ludwick is good against then you can start him, otherwise start Billy. This way Billy gets a feel for major league pitching, but isn't subjected to the pressures of leading off or playing everyday like Stubbs and Cozart were. It is no secret that he struggled this year hitting in the minors, but he turned it on when he got comfortable, why not give him time to get comfortable in the bigs next year? Plus you will have him on your bench to PR in close games too. He would not get the huge amount of AB to 'develop' in the minors, but how much developing can you do against minor league pitching? Look at Reynolds. He had a nice ERA and a nice record in the minors, but is struggling somewhat here in the bigs. Do we want Billy to develop with pitching like that or to develop against actual major league pitchers?

Throwing someone to the fire on a part time basis can destroy a players morale and hurt their development. They have less time to work on their game and more downtime to think about their failures (which there will be a lot of). Hamilton obviously still has work to do against AAA pitchers, and a lot of work to do in general (don't forget, he did just start playing CF). If he is not a full time player then he should not be in the majors next year.

[M2]

Hamilton needs to play everyday in 2014. His September role with the Reds should not be carried over to next season, and he's a natural RHB so it wouldn't make sense to platoon with Ludwick.

If Choo comes back, I'd tell Hamilton, Ludwick, Heisey, Paul, Robinson and any other OF in the mix that it's an open competition for the 3rd OF job.

[Benihana]

Although this contradicts what I suggested in the other thread about keeping Luddy around for the first half of the year so you can ease Hamilton into the CF job (Walt's words), here is another thought:

1. Reds sign Choo to a 3 or 4 year deal.
2. Reds make qualifying offer to Arroyo.
a. He rejects it and Reds get extra 1st round pick.
b. He accepts it, in which case:

Trade Homer Bailey, Ryan Ludwick, and Yorman Rodriguez to Texas for Jurickson Profar.

Texas needs an OF (they've discussed whether or not to re-sign Nelson Cruz, even if they do they could use a DH). Texas may need a replacement for Matt Garza if they can't re-sign him. Homer Bailey is from Texas and likely to sign a LTC to stay there. Yorman Rodriguez needs to stick in the bigs by 2015, so he could replace Ludwick if the Rangers choose not to exercise his mutual option and gives Texas some long-term upside in exchange for Profar. Profar does not have a position in Texas.

Reds then come to ST planning on Choo starting in LF and Hamilton starting in CF. Depending on what happens, Profar either replaces Cozart at SS, or starts in CF if Hamilton is not ready. Reds can then make the decision whether to have Profar play CF or SS over the longterm, depending on who can prove they belong as a major league starter between Hamilton and Cozart.

By shedding Bailey and Ludwick, Reds have more than enough money to afford Choo over next 3 years, one qualifying year of Arroyo, and still have enough to extend Latos and either Leake or Cueto (or maybe both) after 2015. Reds also still have Winker and Ervin ready to replace Choo after 2016 or as trade bait to acquire another pitcher if Cueto can't stay healthy or Arroyo loses his effectiveness. Meanwhile, SS and CF have been solved inexpensively for the long-term. What's not to like?

[SporkLover]

If they did resign Choo, they would likely be able to find a taker for Ludwick in a trade. He will be on a one year deal and bats who are not butchers in the field are in short supply. The return may not be great but it is unlikely that the Reds would be "saddled" with his salary if they went that route. Could also keep him and move him at the deadline if Hamilton shows consistently that he is ready.

I think you could find a taker for Ludwick, but I'd imagine that in any trade scenario involving him would include the Reds being saddled with some of his Salary.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I move Choo to left. I bring up Hamilton and play him in center part time with Heisey or Robinson. I deal 2 of Ludwick, Paul, Robinson, Heisey (keeping at least 1 CF'er). I also deal Izturis & Rodriguez (possibly Soto too). Amongst all of those spare parts we should be able to upgrade the bench with 1 or 2 ACTUAL solid bench players (additional player could be dealt too as needed). We need someone who can play solid middle infield and hits with a decent average. He could be someone without a lot of pop, but offsets it with AVG or OBP. Since I'm nowhere close to familiar with other teams' bench assets, I'm open to suggestions. I was thinking Arizona due to the glut of guys they have there. Bloomquist, Hill, Prado, Owings, Gregorious. Cleveland seemed like a good target last offseason due to the high number of really good MI prospects they have in their system. Not sure if they fit anymore though.

[SporkLover]

By shedding Bailey and Ludwick, Reds have more than enough money to afford Choo over next 3 years, one qualifying year of Arroyo, and still have enough to extend Latos and either Leake or Cueto (or maybe both) after 2015. Reds also still have Winker and Ervin ready to replace Choo after 2016 or as trade bait to acquire another pitcher if Cueto can't stay healthy or Arroyo loses his effectiveness. Meanwhile, SS and CF have been solved inexpensively for the long-term. What's not to like?

I'm a risk adverse guy and this reads expensive and risky to me.

Bailey is under team control until 2015 and seems to me like he's the kind of guy you want to keep in the rotation, even offer him a contract extension in the off season to avoid Arb and Free Agency negotiations.... lock him up for a few more years before he gets expensive.

BH is having a phenom start so far... but it's a small sample. Let's wait to see how he does this off season against better teams before we give him an OF starting job... IMHO he still hasn't proven he can hit at the MLB level yet.

Arroyo is on the wrong side of 35, and while I love what he's done for the Reds... at some point he's going to start to degrade and he is about to get more expensive. He just seems a bit expensive (at the cost of giving up bailey in a trade) to keep around when there is good young talent in the Org already that is under team control.

Jurickson Profar is Texas tradebait.... but again he hasn't proven he can hit at the big league level. His ceiling is higher than Cozart's... but for a guy that needs a tune up.... seems like an expensive price for the pieces you mentioned.

Just my 2 cents.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Although this contradicts what I suggested in the other thread about keeping Luddy around for the first half of the year so you can ease Hamilton into the CF job (Walt's words), here is another thought:

1. Reds sign Choo to a 3 or 4 year deal.
2. Reds make qualifying offer to Arroyo.
a. He rejects it and Reds get extra 1st round pick.
b. He accepts it, in which case:

Trade Homer Bailey, Ryan Ludwick, and Yorman Rodriguez to Texas for Jurickson Profar.

Texas needs an OF (they've discussed whether or not to re-sign Nelson Cruz, even if they do they could use a DH). Texas may need a replacement for Matt Garza if they can't re-sign him. Homer Bailey is from Texas and likely to sign a LTC to stay there. Yorman Rodriguez needs to stick in the bigs by 2015, so he could replace Ludwick if the Rangers choose not to exercise his mutual option and gives Texas some long-term upside in exchange for Profar. Profar does not have a position in Texas.

Reds then come to ST planning on Choo starting in LF and Hamilton starting in CF. Depending on what happens, Profar either replaces Cozart at SS, or starts in CF if Hamilton is not ready. Reds can then make the decision whether to have Profar play CF or SS over the longterm, depending on who can prove they belong as a major league starter between Hamilton and Cozart.

By shedding Bailey and Ludwick, Reds have more than enough money to afford Choo over next 3 years, one qualifying year of Arroyo, and still have enough to extend Latos and either Leake or Cueto (or maybe both) after 2015. Reds also still have Winker and Ervin ready to replace Choo after 2016 or as trade bait to acquire another pitcher if Cueto can't stay healthy or Arroyo loses his effectiveness. Meanwhile, SS and CF have been solved inexpensively for the long-term. What's not to like?

I can't express how much I dislike this plan. Keeping Homer & Latos are so much more important than ANY other thing this offseason. I don't think the lost decade is so far removed that we can forget what it's like to NOT have pitching.

[swaisuc]

Too much emphasis on the opening day lineup. There are worse things than having 4 good OFs over the course of 162 games. It will work itself out. If Hamilton plays at a level that demands he's in most every day, then maybe Ludwick will continue to struggle (or get hurt again). It's still reasonable to think Choo might need to sit vs some lefties. Hamilton could struggle and need to be a part time player. Let's not go too overboard with concern about MAYBE having a good OF on the bench if everything turns out great and we avoid injuries.

[WrongVerb]

Too much emphasis on the opening day lineup. There are worse things than having 4 good OFs over the course of 162 games. It will work itself out. If Hamilton plays at a level that demands he's in most every day, then maybe Ludwick will continue to struggle (or get hurt again). It's still reasonable to think Choo might need to sit vs some lefties. Hamilton could struggle and need to be a part time player. Let's not go too overboard with concern about MAYBE having a good OF on the bench if everything turns out great and we avoid injuries.

I agree. I think the Reds could promise Ludwick 400+ ABs next season even with BHam in the fold.

[Benihana]

I'm a risk adverse guy and this reads expensive and risky to me.

Bailey is under team control until 2015 and seems to me like he's the kind of guy you want to keep in the rotation, even offer him a contract extension in the off season to avoid Arb and Free Agency negotiations.... lock him up for a few more years before he gets expensive.

BH is having a phenom start so far... but it's a small sample. Let's wait to see how he does this off season against better teams before we give him an OF starting job... IMHO he still hasn't proven he can hit at the MLB level yet.

Arroyo is on the wrong side of 35, and while I love what he's done for the Reds... at some point he's going to start to degrade and he is about to get more expensive. He just seems a bit expensive (at the cost of giving up bailey in a trade) to keep around when there is good young talent in the Org already that is under team control.

Jurickson Profar is Texas tradebait.... but again he hasn't proven he can hit at the big league level. His ceiling is higher than Cozart's... but for a guy that needs a tune up.... seems like an expensive price for the pieces you mentioned.

Just my 2 cents.

I can't express how much I dislike this plan. Keeping Homer & Latos are so much more important than ANY other thing this offseason. I don't think the lost decade is so far removed that we can forget what it's like to NOT have pitching.

I should have clarified, my proposal goes on the assumption that Homer Bailey is gone after next year when his contract expires. My understanding is that he wants to test the market and has expressed in the past his distaste for pitching in GAB.

That said, if the Reds can extend Bailey in addition to Latos, they should do it and DO IT NOW.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I should have clarified, my proposal goes on the assumption that Homer Bailey is gone after next year when his contract expires. My understanding is that he wants to test the market and has expressed in the past his distaste for pitching in GAB.

That said, if the Reds can extend Bailey in addition to Latos, they should do it and DO IT NOW.

2 things.

1. his comments about GABP all came before he actually had any success in GABP.
2. he's developed a strong relationship with Price that has translated into success, that's going to be a hard thing to let go.