LHP Tony Cingrani
RHP Drew Cisco
UT Todd Frazier
UT Brodie Greene
SS Didi Gregorius
LHP Ismael Guillon
OF Ryan LaMarre
RHP Kyle Lotzkar
2B Henry Rodriguez
OF Yorman Rodriguez
3B Gabriel Rosa
OF Dave Sappelt
2B Ron Torreyes
other (please list below)
So a guys first 100 at bats in the Majors tells you all that you need to know?Originally Posted by Kc61
I will be the first to admit, when he came back from an oblique strain, he wasn't quite swinging as hard as he was before it, and his power took a step backwards.... but you simply can't make judgments off of guys based on something as small as 100 at bats. It is almost always a terrible idea. The guy is a 30 doubles/15 HR type of hitter.
What does it matter? Slugging % is what measures power. If you're looking for HR power, than Sappelt isn't you're guy, but he has great range gets on base and can probably accumulate more than 50 Extra Base hits per season. He has power the way Pete Rose had power. He's being characterized more in the Willy Taveras mold. IF he had Willy T power, he wouldn't even make my top 40. He has plenty of extra base power and I have him at number 4 and I'm a guy who values HR more than many on here do.
Still has a higher ISOp abd HR Frequency than Stubbs or Phillips. He's not Juan Pierre.Code:Name PAs Slg OBP OPS HR PA/HR XBH PA/XBH BA ISOP Bruce 1512 0.551 0.366 0.917 61 24.79 189 8.00 0.308 0.243 'Cisco 2554 0.502 0.317 0.819 112 22.80 282 9.06 0.286 0.216 Frazier 2217 0.477 0.354 0.831 74 29.96 223 9.94 0.281 0.196 Votto 3016 0.477 0.386 0.862 97 31.09 272 11.09 0.289 0.188 Mes 1796 0.455 0.344 0.799 59 30.44 168 10.69 0.269 0.186 Alonso 1340 0.466 0.370 0.837 36 37.22 127 10.55 0.293 0.173 Heisey 2032 0.458 0.365 0.823 52 39.08 175 11.61 0.285 0.173 Sappelt 1781 0.459 0.362 0.821 31 57.45 141 12.63 0.309 0.150 BPhil 3074 0.418 0.339 0.757 67 45.88 242 12.70 0.274 0.144 Stubbs 1847 0.401 0.364 0.765 28 65.96 138 13.38 0.269 0.132
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
He had 31 homers in 1781 minor league plate appearances. Don't see how he hits 15 homers a year in the big leagues.
Maybe in a career year at GABP with a huge number of at bats. With the wind blowing out.
Against Bronson Arroyo.
He had 297 at bats this year in Louisville with 7 HR's and he wasn't quite the same guy once he came back from his oblique strange. Louisville is a tougher place to hit a HR than Cincinnati. Give him 600 at bats, or close to it and that is pretty close to 15 HR's.
If I follow your logic, using this unique "pro rated metric", then your project that Frazier hits 30+ homers for Cincy next year, right?
If that is correct, why isn't Frazer a top 3 prospect for you?
No, I don't. But it isn't because he doesn't have the power to, it is because I don't think he will make enough contact to do so. He isn't a good contact hitter, which is going to push his average and on-base percentage down, which means he isn't an every day player.
If Todd Frazier were a guy who would strike out 15% of the time or less, then yes, I would say he is a guy who could hit 30 HR's. Still not sure he would be a Top 3 prospect though because of his defensive positions that would push down his value some.
I follow you. Does Sappelt get more ABs next year than Frazier (assumin both are healthly and have decent enought offseasons and spring training to be judged fairly) with the Reds?
Probably not, because Sappelt will be behind Alonso and Stubbs in CF/LF, so he probably spends most of his season with Louisville again. Frazier could find himself in a utility role that will lend himself some at bats.
You just made my point.
Sappelt will never get 600 at bats to hit "pretty close to 15 HR's." That kind of homer production doesn't warrant starting player at bats.
Of course, if he was an on base machine, Sappelt might get close to 600 at bats. But he doesn't walk much either.
He's a singles and doubles hitter who doesn't walk and few teams will give him starting hitter at bats with that skill set. He's dependent on balls finding holes and hitting in gaps.
Not easy to succeed that way. That's why I see him as a backup.
For some reason at some point I concluded that Torreyes is pronounced "Torre- yea" and immediately replace the lyrics "Carry on my wayward son" with "Torreyes my wayward son." It is unfortunate but has been stcuk in my head ever since.
Please carry on with your regularly scheduled thread.
Kansas - "Carry On Wayward Son" 1976 Video - YouTube
It is plenty easy to succeed that way when you are making a lot of contact. And he does that. And bat Sappelt second and he will get close to 600 at bats.
Well if Trout is the #2 prospect in baseball, then Torreyes shouldn't be far behind.
Yorman at #10 is ok, but I think that Torreyes outright deserves that spot after the season he had, which was preceded by equal success the year before.
And yet here we are at #10 and he still hasn't been picked. The fact that we had to pull out Mike Trout to compare Torreyes season to speaks volumes IMO. I don't know why people continue to overlook this kid. You don't have to hit for HR power to be a top-notch prospect IMO. He's got every other tool you could hope for from what I've seen & read. Personally, I had Ronald in my top FIVE.
Eh, the two players seasons weren't even close to comparable aside from batting average. Trout is a center fielder, walks a ton more, has a ton more power, is bigger, faster and stronger too.
As for Torreyes, he is a three tool player. He doesn't have power and his arm isn't anything to write home about. There are even some scouts who don't think his defense is that good (listen to the BP Podcast a week ago or so).
Have to really love the hit tool though. It truly is an impressive thing to see, much less when you look at the fact that it came from an 18 year old. That said, Torreyes is my #11 guy. Could easily put him at #10 and not worried about it. But I can't argue him being higher than that.
Scout examination of defense seems to be an iffy area altogether, especially when it comes to the fringe prospects. It's particularly easy for a scout to watch Torreyes miss a single ball that flew a couple feet over his arm and make assumptions about his height, even if he wouldn't have caught it in most circumstances anyway. It's just naturally tricky to determine a skill where the only mistakes or spectacular plays happen on rare occasions. There's always going to be some variation in perception.
One thing he didn't have going for him this season is power, but from what I've heard in the past he's not incapable of showing a little bit of pop. I bet 10 HR per season could be expected from him. And even if no one's particularly high on his arm, it's not the most important of tools for a second baseman. So while he may not have all the tools, it seems like he has all that he needs to succeed in a major league role, and is putting them together a lot faster than Yorman.
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