Bad contracts = Bad Players?

[Red Rover]

Someone touched on this in another thread and it got me thinking. Too many of us judge players because of their salaries, at least I have been known to.

When I think of Milton I think of a bad pitcher. At his age, injury history and recent performance he is not worth his salary, but is he really a bad pitcher. When your options are the Mays and Franklins of the world, I'd rather have Milton as my 4th or 5th starter. Yes his contract is bad when your stuck with it, but performance wise their are worse options.

When I think of Griffey I think of a declining struggling older and slower outfielder. At his age, injury history and recent performance he is not worth his salary, but is he really a bad player. Griffey in a LF or RF position batting 4th or 5th in the lineup would actually make this team better. Will it make Griffey worth his 10+ mil contract, NO, but the options either aren't much better or will be just as expensive. Yes his contract is bad when your are stuck with it, but performance wise their are worse options.

I could go on about more Reds players past and present, but really a bad contract does not make a bad player. A bad contract only makes a bad team.

[Johnny Footstool]

This year, Griffey was a bad player. He lost all plate discipline and created a ton of outs in the heart of the lineup. Plus he has no range in CF.

Milton was not as bad this season, but he is still a bad pitcher. The thing is, he was a bad pitcher *before* DanO gave him a bad contract.

But you're right about their contracts having no bearing on them being bad players. They're bad because they're bad, regardless of how much money they are making.

[Red Rover]

You can't say none of the above, but pick your best 4th starter option?

A. Joe Mays
B. Eric Milton
C. Chris Michalak
D. Sun-Woo Kim

Again you can't say none of the above, but pick your best OF starting option?

A. Dewayne Wise
B. Quinton McCracken
C. Todd Hollandsworth
D. Ken Griffey Jr

Yes because of their contracts, the Reds would/could use these options.

[SultanOfSwing]

I agree completely. I have always said (and posted several times) if Milton was making $3m, no one would be complaining. He would be regarded as a solid starter. Every good start would be great, and the bad ones expected for back-end starter making $3m. If Griffey was earning $3-5m he would be one of the best bargains in baseball. The salary of players dramatically affects the fans' perception. If Dunn was making $2.5m, who would want to trade him?

[Ravenlord]

You can't say none of the above, but pick your best 4th starter option?

A. Joe Mays
B. Eric Milton
C. Chris Michalak
D. Sun-Woo Kim

Again you can't say none of the above, but pick your best OF starting option?

Milton

A. Dewayne Wise
B. Quinton McCracken
C. Todd Hollandsworth
D. Ken Griffey Jr

why isn't Chris Denorfia listed there? or Ryan Freel?

[Ravenlord]

I agree completely. I have always said (and posted several times) if Milton was making $3m, no one would be complaining.

i would. he'd simply be a correctly to slightly over priced starter instead of grossly overpriced.

He would be regarded as a solid starter.

only if you enjoy having to reach out and grab mediocrity.

If Dunn was making $2.5m, who would want to trade him?

a lot of people because he'd have a killer contract that could land a far superior pitcher than anything the Reds have seen since the begining of last decade.

[Red Rover]

The other 3 options, listed for Milton, combined couldn't have as many qualtity starts as Milton did. Milton again is not worth his contract, but he is better than most of the Reds other options.

Same as the other 3 options, listed for Griffey. Combined they couldn't hit 27HR and 72RBI. Griffey also is not worth his contract, but he is better than most of the Reds other options.

Maybe the Thread title should have read "Bad Contract > Worse options?"

[M2]

For me, the larger point isn't whether the Reds currently have something better than Eric Milton at this moment. Wayne Krivsky's got an entire offseason to remedy that situation. What Milton represents for me is a glaring case of something the team needs to go out and upgrade.

Krivsky's also got five months to sort out what to do with Jr. The guy has to move out of CF and probably out of the #3 slot in the lineup as well.

To paraphrase one of the wisest things I've ever heard -- don't get flustered just because you've got problems. You've always got one problem or another that's going to crop up. The real trouble comes when you keeping having the same problem and it doesn't get fixed. What we're talking about here are two problems Krivsky can and should fix this winter.

[Ravenlord]

Same as the other 3 options, listed for Griffey. Combined they couldn't hit 27HR and 72RBI. Griffey also is not worth his contract, but he is better than most of the Reds other options.

i'd be willing to bet that if you put DeWayne Wise third in the Reds' order and give him 500ish ABs he'd slug about the same as Griffey did this year. and i'm also willing to bet that the 290ish OBP Wise would be attached to would actually cost the Reds less run value than Griffey's defense.

in other words; if you expect over 162 games for Griffey to generate around 100 runs, you should also expect his atrocious range to add about 30-40 runs to team's runs against column, thus effectively making Griffey worth 60-70 runs.

if you expect over 162 ganes for Wise to generate around 80 runs, you should also expect his excellent defensive attributes to actually positively affect the Reds' runs against column. even at neutral, that would still be 10-20 runs (a bit more than 1 win using Pythag Record) better value than Griffey. and that doesn't include contracts.


of course, this doesn't even to begin to include that the conversation should be Chris Denorfia and not DeWayne Wise.

[Red Rover]

why isn't Chris Denorfia listed there? or Ryan Freel?

I could probably list 100 better options for both Milton and Griffey, but I could also probably list 100 options worse. I just wanted to show the difference between BAD players and OVERPAID players.

[Ravenlord]

I could probably list 100 better options for both Milton and Griffey, but I could also probably list 100 options worse. I just wanted to show the difference between BAD players and OVERPAID players.

but in Milton's case he's bad and overpaid.

in Griffey's case, he can hopefully start hitting again or he's in that boat as well.

[Red Rover]

i'd be willing to bet that if you put DeWayne Wise third in the Reds' order and give him 500ish ABs he'd slug about the same as Griffey did this year. and i'm also willing to bet that the 290ish OBP Wise would be attached to would actually cost the Reds less run value than Griffey's defense.

in other words; if you expect over 162 games for Griffey to generate around 100 runs, you should also expect his atrocious range to add about 30-40 runs to team's runs against column, thus effectively making Griffey worth 60-70 runs.

if you expect over 162 ganes for Wise to generate around 80 runs, you should also expect his excellent defensive attributes to actually positively affect the Reds' runs against column. even at neutral, that would still be 10-20 runs (a bit more than 1 win using Pythag Record) better value than Griffey. and that doesn't include contracts.


of course, this doesn't even to begin to include that the conversation should be Chris Denorfia and not DeWayne Wise.

I would probably take that bet, but look at the big picture. With Wise batting third the Reds would be lucky to score 600 runs. The whole lineup would get worse.

[Ravenlord]

I would probably take that bet, but look at the big picture. With Wise batting third the Reds would be lucky to score 600 runs. The whole lineup would get worse.

no doubt. but you can still reasonably expect 70 runs created out of Wise hitting 7th. you might even get 'hidden runs' from his speed in front of the catcher and pitcher.

i'll say basically the same thing now as i said last winter, i'll take outstanding defense and speed with at least doubles power out of my center fielder. last year that was Corey Patterson (who had a brillian first half, then began being misused again), and this year it's already in the Reds' system: Chris Denorfia.

[Johnny Footstool]

You can't say none of the above, but pick your best 4th starter option?

A. Joe Mays
B. Eric Milton
C. Chris Michalak
D. Sun-Woo Kim

Again you can't say none of the above, but pick your best OF starting option?

A. Dewayne Wise
B. Quinton McCracken
C. Todd Hollandsworth
D. Ken Griffey Jr

Yes because of their contracts, the Reds would/could use these options.

Objectively, all the options are bad. Milton and Griffey only look relatively good when compared to downright horrible alternatives.

[Red Rover]

no doubt. but you can still reasonably expect 70 runs created out of Wise hitting 7th. you might even get 'hidden runs' from his speed in front of the catcher and pitcher.

i'll say basically the same thing now as i said last winter, i'll take outstanding defense and speed with at least doubles power out of my center fielder. last year that was Corey Patterson (who had a brillian first half, then began being misused again), and this year it's already in the Reds' system: Chris Denorfia.

I agree that Denorfia and maybe even Hopper, both in the Reds system now, could replace Griffey in CF with little run loss/gain, but would you sit Griffey, move him to RF or LF, trade him or just eat his contract?