Reds Hot Stove Rumors (Discussion)

[757690]

IIRC, I believe that a higher percentage of ground balls go for hits than flyballs.

Guys like Derek Lowe who get groundballs generally don't have a history of having a lower BAPIP. Usually they will have significantly less home runs than other guys, and more DP's that help the success of a pitcher.

That makes sense.

Think about it. A hard hit ground ball can shoot through the infield and be a base hit. Flyballs have to be well placed bloops to be a hit. If it's hit hard enough, it's not longer a flyball, it's a line drive.

This is why I think the whole separation between groundballs, flyballs and line drives needs to be reworked. It really is more about how hard you hit the ball, and that needs to be taken into account if we are to understand what really happens with balls in play. I'm hoping as PitchFX advances, we will be able to do more of this.

[hippie07]

Wonder what it would take to get both Gio & Bailey??
Alonso, Stubbs, Homer Bailey, maybe do it??

Then maybe get a solid guy like Danks (previously rumors that the Reds are interested) with someone like Corcino & Wood.

Rotation of:
Gio
Cueto
Danks
Leake
Arroyo/Chapman/Volquez

with Bailey as the new closer... doesn't sound bad.

[TRF]

Bailey for Stubbs is a steal.

For the A's.

GABP suppresses doubles, and for a guy with Stubbs' speed, his doubles total was very low, especially compared to his HR totals the last two years. Put him in the AL west, and his HR power might take a little dip, but not much of one, but his doubles might just... double. he might be looking at a .470+ SLG%. greater power numbers added to hitting where he needs to hit, 7-8 in the order and his OBP could shoot up to the .340+ range. Plus his speed would play well in those bigger OF's.

I'd want Bailey plus a minor leaguer. At least a B prospect.

ugh. I feel dirty.

[dougdirt]

I'm hoping as PitchFX advances, we will be able to do more of this.

It is there. We just don't have access to the data right now (we may never actually get it either, but Sportsvision did release one months worth of data to some guys last year to work with).

[REDREAD]

Bailey for Stubbs is a steal.

For the A's.

.

I agree. I would not do that trade.
They can have Heisey or Sappelt and I would throw in another medium prospect too.

[Vottomatic]

Wonder what it would take to get both Gio & Bailey??
Alonso, Stubbs, Homer Bailey, maybe do it??

Then maybe get a solid guy like Danks (previously rumors that the Reds are interested) with someone like Corcino & Wood.

Rotation of:
Gio
Cueto
Danks
Leake
Arroyo/Chapman/Volquez

with Bailey as the new closer... doesn't sound bad.

I think that's too much to pay. I'm fine trading Stubbs and Bailey, but I think a marginal guy in addition would do it.......but not Alonso.

I'd love to obtain Gio and Bailey. Could solve 2 problems if they pan out right. Stud starting pitcher and closer.

[dougdirt]

I think that's too much to pay. I'm fine trading Stubbs and Bailey, but I think a marginal guy in addition would do it.......but not Alonso.

I'd love to obtain Gio and Bailey. Could solve 2 problems if they pan out right. Stud starting pitcher and closer.

I just don't get the love for Gio Gonzalez. He is essentially Edinson Volquez in a much larger ballpark.

[Brutus]

IIRC, I believe that a higher percentage of ground balls go for hits than flyballs.

Guys like Derek Lowe who get groundballs generally don't have a history of having a lower BAPIP. Usually they will have significantly less home runs than other guys, and more DP's that help the success of a pitcher.

I believe the numbers are around 23% of groundballs go for hits and 14% of flyballs.

The trick, obviously, is to keep more of those groundballs in the infield to lower the BABIP. But of course merely keeping the ball on the ground is preferable despite the extra hits since those hits are in the ballpark.

[PuffyPig]

Not to derail this thread, but we have no idea whether pitchers can control their BABIP.

If pitchers could control thier BABIP, I'm curious as to why they don't.

It would seem to be a jazz of an idea to do so.

[mth123]

I just don't get the love for Gio Gonzalez. He is essentially Edinson Volquez in a much larger ballpark.

Agreed. I'm not big on acquiring Bailey either unless Trevor Cahill is thrown in. $3 Million plus and some of our talent makes acquiring a starter much less likely. The best offer I'd make for Andrew Bailey would be Volquez and some lesser minor leaguers like Kris Negron or Jordan Smith. If Bailey could be had for a couple lottery tickets and salary relief, I'd take him, but I wouldn't give up a lot of value for him.

Then I'd package Masset and Stubbs for John Danks.

[Will M]

I would trade Stubbs as a part of a deal for a solid starter. Danks. Wandy. Somebody like that. If we somehow got that starter in another fashion then Stubbs for Bailey could make sense. However, I suspect Stubbs (as part of a deal) is one of our better excess chips that we can deal. I have no problem with a trade of one of our centerfielders for Bailey but I think the Reds need to fix their #1 problem first. Then try to improve other places. IMO the #1 problem is getting a pitcher who is at least a solid #3 starter to replace Volquez/Willis in the rotation.

[Wheelhouse]

Bailey for Stubbs is a steal.

For the A's.

GABP suppresses doubles, and for a guy with Stubbs' speed, his doubles total was very low, especially compared to his HR totals the last two years. Put him in the AL west, and his HR power might take a little dip, but not much of one, but his doubles might just... double. he might be looking at a .470+ SLG%. greater power numbers added to hitting where he needs to hit, 7-8 in the order and his OBP could shoot up to the .340+ range. Plus his speed would play well in those bigger OF's.

I'd want Bailey plus a minor leaguer. At least a B prospect.

ugh. I feel dirty.

I wouldn't trade Stubbs until he is properly coached. He has too much potential, and Dusty, nor anybody else, doesn't want to "mess with his game." Get him coached well and he could be electric.

[757690]

If pitchers could control thier BABIP, I'm curious as to why they don't.

It would seem to be a jazz of an idea to do so.

Again, we don't know that they don't. The data doesn't say that. That's a conclusion that one may draw from the data, but it by no means is the only logical or even the best one.

[757690]

I wouldn't trade Stubbs until he is properly coached. He has too much potential, and Dusty, nor anybody else, doesn't want to "mess with his game." Get him coached well and he could be electric.

I'm not so sure Stubbs is very coachable. Maybe it's the coaches, maybe it's him.

[REDREAD]

If pitchers could control thier BABIP, I'm curious as to why they don't.

It would seem to be a jazz of an idea to do so.

Well, Marty thinks a ML pitcher should be able to throw a strike whenever he wants to.. But obviously, if pitchers could do that, there'd never be a nonintentional BB.

What's more likely:
1. that a pitcher can sometimes control his BABIP. However, it's difficult and can't be done on every single pitch.
2. Other than walks, Ks and HRs.. pitching is pure "luck"

I'm more inclined to believe #1. Yes, I realize that #2 is an oversimplification of the entire BABIP theory, but that's it in a nutshell.