Joey Votto
Jay Bruce
Todd Frazier
Billy Hamilton
One of the Big Three SP (Latos, Cueto, Bailey - list below)
Aroldis Chapman
Robert Stephenson
A Minor Leaguer Not Currently Listed (list below)
Someone who is not currently in the organization
I might get beat up here in the Reds Zone but I don't see it with Hamilton. I think he will get a good player but I just cannot see him being the MVP for the Reds. If he's the MVP for the Reds with the lack of power, I think the Reds will be in trouble the next half of the decade if this is the case. I seem Hamilton as a good leadoff hitter but I don't see his speed being something that will make him more valuable than a 30 HR+, 100+ RBI per year guy.
*puts helmet on preparing for a Reds Zone beatdown.
EDIT: I'm actually willing to put real money on the idea that a prospect like Oscar Taveras will have a greater career arc than Hamilton simply because Taveras brings more power and better place discipline to the table.
Last edited by MikeThierry; 12-19-2012 at 06:01 PM.
I think Hamilton will bring a unique skillset to the table.
If he can obp somewhere between .350 and .400, he'll get 100+ stolen bases.
That would mean Taveras (or anyone else, for that matter) would have to hit 30 HR more than Hamilton and find another 10 bases on top of that between stolen bases and doubles/ triples that Hamilton doesn't. (I'm assuming Hamilton's doubles and triples will continue to roughly equal Taveras' doubles and triples.)
It's certainly possible that Taveras could do that-- he's probably the second- or third- best prospect in baseball right now behind Wil Myers and Jackson Profrar. But that's an awful long hill to climb.
It's possible that Hamilton becomes an early career Tim Raines or a Brett Butler leadoff hitter. Both of those guys are HOF, IMO.
He may not. Some speed guys don't pan out. Then again, Taveras' numbers are pretty close to those of Brad Komminsk.
Last edited by Scrap Irony; 12-19-2012 at 06:49 PM.
IIRC, a player needs to steal 70% of his bases for them to be even a break even value. I don't think you can simply add 100 bases to Hamilton's totals without taking into account how many times he's thrown out.
There is no way 100 stolen bases are worth 30 HR's. Because even if he is thrown out only 25 times (80% success rate), that's a net 75 bases gained. And those bases do not advance any other runners.
Last edited by PuffyPig; 12-19-2012 at 07:25 PM.
I'd rather have Taveras than Hamilton for a bunch of reasons; however, Hamilton's value will come more from his general running on the base paths (getting those extra bases on his and other's hits) than his stolen bases. It's actually going to be hard to measure the impact he has on the bases, since there really hasn't been anyone with his speed, in the game recently.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I'm really surprised I'm the only one who said was somebody not in the organization.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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