Most overrated player in baseball?

[redsfandan]

You're right it's not great, that's why it is the worst case scenario. There are worse possibilities though, such as Ryan Howard and his .752 OPS over his age 32 and 33 seasons.

What I don't get is the sudden degree to which some Reds fans have turned on Votto. Hey, I get baseball is 'what have you done for me lately', but it is as though 2008-2012 never happened and a 2013 where Votto has merely been tremendous and a notch below excellent means he is overrated and he won't ever hit more HR's again and he's not clutch and on and on and on.

If you want to see a guy who went from excellent to legitmately overrated, check out my point about Adrian Gonzalez earlier.


In the time since I posted that, that line has now fallen to .296/.341/.458/.799, so his OPS over the past two seasons is now below .800.

Honestly, I don't think any of the four (Voto, Helton, Gonzalez, or Howard) are overrated. Votto is elite. The other three aren't. I think most fans realize those three players aren't what they used to be. With Votto part of it is his slg% (which is still good but has slipped) and the rest is just perception due to lack of rbi.

[Patrick Bateman]

Not too long ago in this thread 757690 said that "1B and LF are sluggers positions". Well, sure, Votto's still elite right now. But his slugging % needs to stop going down or calling him overrated will make more sense.

The question isn't "who will become the most overrated player in basbeall". The question is, who is it now.

Falling slugging or not, Votto is currently one of the most valuable players in baseball. Maybe his slugging will actually increase as he continues to learn how to be pitched around. I'm certainly not betting against the guy.

[RadfordVA]

The question isn't "who will become the most overrated player in basbeall". The question is, who is it now.

Falling slugging or not, Votto is currently one of the most valuable players in baseball. Maybe his slugging will actually increase as he continues to learn how to be pitched around. I'm certainly not betting against the guy.

He has the 4th highest slugging among 1B this season. The days were every 1st baseman hits 30 HR are long gone now. If people only watch the Reds I guess they do not realize power is in a league wide shortage.

[SporkLover]

What I don't get is the sudden degree to which some Reds fans have turned on Votto. Hey, I get baseball is 'what have you done for me lately', but it is as though 2008-2012 never happened and a 2013 where Votto has merely been tremendous and a notch below excellent means he is overrated and he won't ever hit more HR's again and he's not clutch and on and on and on.

I know there are a few fickle folks out there that are hot and cold on any Reds hot topic issue like Votto.

I think most folks including myself, are worried of when 2018 rolls around, perhaps he's not a $25 Mil player (history shows us that this tends to be the trend), and the team can't afford other pieces to balance that out. That's alot of $$$ to be shelling out for a player that will potentially not be your number 1 offensive contributor, maybe not even defensive, and you are payroll limited because you are in a mid-size market.

Votto is a solid player, a warrior, and as long as he stays healthy will be a big piece of the Reds offense for years to come..... the big burning question is just how long, and hope that he never becomes a burden.

Can you imagine the nightmare St Louis would have had if they gave Pujols a votto like contract? the angels can't imagine it.... they got money to burn!

[Raisor]

Worry about 2018 when it gets here, for tomorrow we may all die

[Wonderful Monds]

I personally will be shocked if it is not, especially with the global economic crisis that will most likely hit in the next 2-3 years.

what the hell, man.

[Larkin Fan]

I don't remember anyone worrying about how much Votto was getting paid when he won the MVP.

Joey Votto's 2010 salary: $525,000

What a bargain!

And just for the record, I think Joey Votto is going to be worth every penny of his contract.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Worry about 2018 when it gets here, for tomorrow we may all die

Always finding the silver lining.

[Raisor]

Always finding the silver lining.

Alright, the day AFTER tomorrow. Happy?

[redsfandan]

The question isn't "who will become the most overrated player in basbeall". The question is, who is it now.

Falling slugging or not, Votto is currently one of the most valuable players in baseball. Maybe his slugging will actually increase as he continues to learn how to be pitched around. I'm certainly not betting against the guy.

Someone else posted that they thought Votto was overrated. It wasn't me. I was merely commenting on it.

If that's not ok with you then I'm so sowy!!!!

[redsfandan]

Worry about 2018 when it gets here, for tomorrow we may all die

Brilliant philosophy. Simply brilliant. That's a little like saying people should worry about their retirement when it gets here. To each their own I guess.

[757690]

From 2018 to 2023 Joey will make $25M/yr. He'll be 34 at the start of 2018, 39 in 2023. In that same period (34-39) Helton has had an .802 ops. That's not that great especially from a 1st baseman that makes alot of money.

So, I sure hope he's not another Helton cuz then he'd be a player that only plays first, isn't an elite hitter anymore, and (even with a bigger payroll) he's still going to have a big contract.

I think the Reds are willing to take the chance that Votto doesn't provide the necessarry production to justify his salary from 2018-2023. That's the price of guaranteeing that he's a Red from 2012-2017 and providing much more production than his salary during those years.

[Patrick Bateman]

Someone else posted that they thought Votto was overrated. It wasn't me. I was merely commenting on it.

If that's not ok with you then I'm so sowy!!!!

I think you read further into my post than I intended.

I simply responded to a post of yours where you quoted my post on the subject. If you weren't meaning to respond to me, then you probably shouldn't have quoted my post.

[SporkLover]

Worry about 2018 when it gets here, for tomorrow we may all die

LOL I hear ya!!

Hopefully the Reds front office is keeping an eye that far out!

[AtomicDumpling]

I think the Reds are willing to take the chance that Votto doesn't provide the necessarry production to justify his salary from 2018-2023. That's the price of guaranteeing that he's a Red from 2012-2017 and providing much more production than his salary during those years.

Yes I agree.

The idea is that his total production over the life of the contract would be worth $238 million dollars (which is the value of his contract according to baseball-reference.com). The Reds felt Votto would outperform his salary in the early years and probably underperform his salary in the later years. The people who are assigning salaries to specific years are missing the point.

They could have structured the contract to pay him more per season in the early years, then less per season in the later years. That would make more sense if they really wanted to pay him on his expected production for each season. Perhaps his salaries would have been arranged like this:

Votto's Real Contract:
2014 - $12 million
2015 - $14 million
2016 - $20 million
2017 - $22 million
2018 - $25 million
2019 - $25 million
2020 - $25 million
2021 - $25 million
2022 - $25 million
2023 - $25 million
2024 - $20 million
Total - $238 million

This contract (the real one) makes Votto a bargain in the early years and overpays him in the later years.

Votto's Alternative Contract:
2014 - $36 million
2015 - $33 million
2016 - $30 million
2017 - $27 million
2018 - $24 million
2019 - $21 million
2020 - $18 million
2021 - $15 million
2022 - $13 million
2023 - $11 million
2024 - $10 million
Total - $238 million

The Alternative Contract pays him according to the amount of value the team predicts Votto will produce on the field that season.

Either way it is the same amount of money. The Alternative Contract would make more sense in terms of paying him directly for his expected levels of production each season. He would be expected to play his best baseball at the beginning of the contract and gradually decline as he ages. This would alleviate the concern that a lot of people have, namely that he won't be worth $25 million per season in his late 30's and his exorbitant salary will become an albatross on the team's payroll.

Alleviating that concern sounds like a good thing, but actually it is not. The reason is because it would actually cost the Reds a lot more to structure the deal in this fashion. The value of a dollar today is higher than it will be 10 years from now, and most importantly you retain the ability to use and invest that cash for several extra years.

You can set aside a lesser amount of money today and put it in bond funds or other conservative, interest-bearing investments and when the higher salaries are due your reserved money will have grown enough to pay them. For example, invest $10 million of the money you saved by paying Votto a lower salary in 2014 and in 10 years that $10 million will grow into perhaps $18 million. In this way you can pay the $238 million total dollars by setting aside perhaps $185 million today. If you paid him more in the early years of the contract it would cost you more like $225 million total. If you can defer money towards the back end of the contract it actually reduces the real-world cost of the contract. So by deferring the payments it can save the Reds tens of millions of dollars over the life of the contract. That is why contracts are structured with the highest payments at the end when the player's production has declined significantly. The Reds obviously realize that he will not be worth $25 million per year in 2023, but that is totally irrelevant.

Think of it like this, if your friend asked to borrow $1000 from you and promised to pay it back in 10 years would you do it? Your friend could take that $1000 and put it in a savings account earning 5% interest and leave it there for 10 years. With compounded interest that $1000 savings account 10 years later would have about $1700 in it. He would pay you back the $1000 and have $700 left over. Essentially that is what the Reds have done with Joey Votto's money. They structured the deal where they get to keep much of the money in their accounts for several extra years. Over those years that money will grow and leave them with more money to spend in subsequent years. That is why contracts in baseball are so frequently backloaded with the largest salaries in the later years when the player has already declined.

If people realized this maybe they wouldn't constantly complain about players not being worth their salaries in the last years of long-term contracts.