1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson
3) Tony Cingrani
4) Daniel Corcino
5) Jesse Winker
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez
Hope everyone had a nice Christmas as we head into the New Year. Best wishes to everyone.
Tucker Barnhart
Jeff Fellhauer
Amir Garrett
Jeff Gelalich
Ismael Guillon
Ryan LaMarre
Dan Langfield
Kyle Lotzkar
Donald Lutz
Seth Mejias-Brean
Jonathan Moscot
Tanner Rahier
Yorman Rodriguez
Chad Rogers
Gabriel Rosa
Bryson Smith
Neftali Soto
David Vidal
Kyle Waldrop
Ryan Wright
Other (Please name)
1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson
3) Tony Cingrani
4) Daniel Corcino
5) Jesse Winker
6) Nick Travieso
7) Henry Rodriguez
Hope everyone had a nice Christmas as we head into the New Year. Best wishes to everyone.
I'm going with Ismail Guillon, a southpaw 20-year-old with really solid peripherals last season. He's young, his scouting report (average FB, plus CH, poor CB) indicates a MOR/ BOR starter with innings eating potential, and the Reds seem to like him quite a bit. I'd like to see him add a mph or two to his fastball (as he works anywhere from 88 to 92 now) or to really improve the consistency on his curve. But he's looking like a pretty sure bet (relatively speaking) as at least a middle reliever.
Other possibilities include Dan Langfield, who's a year older and has (much) better pure stuff. Langfield needs a change-up, and the Reds have typically been able to teach at least rudimentary circle changes (or cutters) for about a decade now. That's a system strength, IMO, and could come into play here. But he's a year older and further down the system ladder, as he finished last season at Billings. On the other hand, he flashes three plus pitches (FB, CB, SL). On the other other hand, he's small-ish and may profile only as a late-inning reliever. Lots to like there.
Another option is Yorman Rodriguez. Tons of tools, questions about his patience. His patience at the plate showed solid improvement for three years, but took a massive step backward last season after being challenged with High A. Lots of K's too. That's a huge red flag-- K's in bunches with no corresponding BB's. But he's still young (21 in High A in 2013). He's the most talented of the trio most likely for this spot.
Went with Yorman Rodriguez. High risk because of his plate discipline. But he is an incredibly high reward guy too.
Waldrop for me, then Yorman, then Guillon.
Rolled the dice with Yorman... Possibly based more on hope than actual belief, but it's the time of year when hope springs eternal so... What the hell
Good question. It's really just a somewhat arbitrary matter of weighing tools/upside against progress against probability of major league contribution etc. Like you, I think Yorman's the most talented position player in the system, so if I were fully convinced he'd realize his talent, I'd put him #1. What I like most about Waldrop is the improvement, which I think I rate more highly than you estimate it. He made massive improvement in his K/BB ratio, going from 65K/10W at Billings in 2011 to 77K's/38 W in 2012 at Dayton--that's from 6.5 to 1 to 2 to 1. His K's went down from 1 in 4 to 1 in 6 PA. There was also steady improvement from month to month in his stats last year. OPS, for instance: May .687, June, .733, July, .827, August, .819. His birthday's late, November 26, 1991, so last year was really only his 20 year old season. So I see a substantially improving player who is going to be a 21 year old this year at High A. This puts him ahead, for me, of guys like Lutz, Vidal, Wright, maybe even Henry R., though I like all those guys well enough too. But if Yorman starts to put it together more, then obviously he goes higher.
I wanted to add Drew Cisco to the prospect list, I am expecting a HUGE year for Drew
What's up with Lotzkar? Did he get injured again?
I want to rank Yorman here based on potential, but at some point you have to accept that he will likely never realize his potential due to his atrocious strikezone management (15 BB & 100 K in 371 PA this year). Aside from a couple of glorious months in the Pioneer league back in 2010, Rodriguez has been completely underwhelming.
I ended up going with Guillon because he is a big bodied lefty who misses bats and seems to have some idea of how to play the game. The only other guys I considered were Soto (due to his proximity to the majors) and Barnhardt (due to his high floor). I'll probably vote Soto at #9 in the hopes that he puts up a monster first half and gets flipped by Walt for a useful major leaguer, then Rodriguez at #10 assuming he is still around.
Last edited by Steve4192; 12-29-2012 at 06:41 PM.
Thing is with Yorman he probably gets 3 more years of failure where someone like Gullion has to do everything just right without injury to reach his ceiling of a number 3 starter. So I voted Yorman.
http://diamondvisits.blogspot.com/ My Minor League stadium review site.
I went with Soto. His BB% went up and K% down. His OBP was 70 points higher than his BA and he still has pop. Getting a little long in the tooth for prospect status, but I see a huge year in AAA and a couple call-ups in 13.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Yep.
I was a big fan of Soto back when there was some hope he might play SS/3B. Now that it looks like he isn't capable of playing any position well, I am less enthusiastic. Hopefully, he'll put up monster numbers the second time through AAA and fool some rival GM into believing he can be their long-term solution at 1B, netting the Reds a nice little return in a deadline trade.
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