Rosenthal on Dunn/Griffey

[OnBaseMachine]

Adam Dunn/Ken Griffey Jr.: The Reds are sick of losing, or so they proclaimed when they fired Wayne Krivsky as general manager. Still, there is little point to them keeping Dunn and Griffey, both of whom will be free agents at the end of the season.

Even if the Reds mount a charge in the NL Central, they would be better off promoting center fielder Jay Bruce — one of the game's top prospects — and collecting more young talent in trades.

That means asking Griffey to waive his no-trade clause, possibly for a return to the Mariners, after he hits the three homers he needs for 600. It also means moving Dunn, who has full no-trade protection until June 15. After that, he can be sent to all but 10 clubs.

Dunn selected the teams on his limited no-trade list carefully, choosing mostly high-revenue clubs that could afford him. That way, he could gain a say — and leverage — in most discussions.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8086082?MSNHPHMA

[Reds Nd2]

After that, he can be sent to all but 10 clubs.

Not true.

[PuffyPig]

Not true.

And the truth is?

[AmarilloRed]

And the truth is?

I have heard he can be sent to 10 teams of his choosing after June 15, not all but 10 clubs AKA (32-10)=22.

[Reds Nd2]

And the truth is?

if club exercised 2008 option, Dunn receives full no-trade clause until 6/15/2008 & limited no-trade clause for the remainder of 2008 (allowing Dunn specify 10 clubs to which he would accept a trade)

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/200...i-reds_24.html

[nate]

And the truth is?

I thought it was that he picked a list of ten clubs he would accept a trade to. Not that he could be sent to any club except a list of ten he chooses.

[fearofpopvol1]

There really isn't much reason to keep Griffey much longer. I really do think Bruce could duplicate his numbers or come very close and obviously, his defense is going to be much better.

Dunn on the other hand is just such a puzzle. Seriously, what do you do with him? Unless he finishes this season with amazing stats (unlikely), I can't imagine he'll get a ton of money elsewhere. Who replaces Dunn for the Reds when if/when he leaves? I'd like the Reds to keep Dunn, but only if the contract is reasonable, which I can't imagine it to be.

[Screwball]

Seriously, what do you do with him? Unless he finishes this season with amazing stats (unlikely)

I'm interested as to why you think it's unlikely. He's done nothing but put up great stats in the past, and at age 28 he's in his prime. Sure his numbers aren't very good right now, but I don't know of too many people who expect these struggles to continue for another 5 months.

Perhaps by amazing you mean 50 HRs, 1.000+ OPS, etc., which yes, is pretty unlikely. However, I don't think 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, .900+ OPS is either unlikely or anything to be scoffed at.

[RedsManRick]

There really isn't much reason to keep Griffey much longer. I really do think Bruce could duplicate his numbers or come very close and obviously, his defense is going to be much better.

Dunn on the other hand is just such a puzzle. Seriously, what do you do with him? Unless he finishes this season with amazing stats (unlikely), I can't imagine he'll get a ton of money elsewhere. Who replaces Dunn for the Reds when if/when he leaves? I'd like the Reds to keep Dunn, but only if the contract is reasonable, which I can't imagine it to be.

I agree. The Dunn situation is a bit of a conundrum. He's basically getting paid what he's worth, but he doesn't merit an extremely long deal -- which he'll likely be expecting. However, the Reds don't have the bat in house to replace him and, going the FA route, the only comparable player in terms of production is Pat Burrell, who is basically Dunn with brown hair.

To me, the best option is to try and sign him to a short deal -- say 3 years at 15M per. If not, trade him for a decent return. If you can't get at least one A prospect, let him walk and take the draft picks. The worst things the Reds could do is either give him an albatross contract (say, 7/120) or trade him for a few marginal prospects, and eventually get nothing out of it.

That said, I hope the Reds appreciate that Dunn is significantly more productive than Junior and that they should not be treated as equivalents from the 2009 team construction perspective.

[flyer85]

On the list I think Rosental is confused, IIRC, Dunn/agent can build of a list of 10 teams to which he can be traded without his approval. Which means they will build a list of non-contending low budget teams to submit to the Reds thus giving Dunn the leverage.

Dunn selected the teams on his limited no-trade list carefully, choosing mostly high-revenue clubs that could afford him. That way, he could gain a say — and leverage — in most discussions.

which is exactly what I have been pointing out. He will make it so to be dealt he will have to waive his "no-trade" clause, giving him leverage in a deal.

[flyer85]

Honestly I don't think either Jr or Dunn will bring much in a trade. The trend in recent years is to hang on to top prospects and deal at most middling prospects(if even that) for rent-a-players.

[Joseph]

I'm hazy on the specifics of this, but I heard on XM yesterday I believe, that Dunn would envoke his No-Trade to all the teams likely to want him such as the Angels, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, etc.....IE all the teams likely to be in a race and likely to have the young talent they are willing to give to 'rent' Dunn. The plan, if you believe the report, is to be sure he goes where he wants to go and signs the contract worth what he wants.

Basically Dunn is set up to get what he wants, where he wants, be it Cincinnati or elsewhere, and the Reds are not in much of a position to maximize his possible return.

That said, I do love Junior and Dunn as players, but I do think from both we've gotten the best we can get. Junior is clearly towards the end and if we can deal him for a couple AA arms, lets do it.

Dunn, and here is where I expect to be blasted soundly, I think he's as good as he's going to be. I don't think he's on the verge of breaking out and becoming a 50-150 guy. I also think he's likely already to start a decline, maybe a slow one, but one none-the-less.

Therefore, I think its time to deal Dunn this season as well, rather than letting him walk or paying him 15+ per over 4 or 5 years.

Thats obviously just my opinion, but one I think that could help make the Reds better moving ahead.

[flyer85]

Basically Dunn is set up to get what he wants, where he wants, be it Cincinnati or elsewhere, and the Reds are not in much of a position to maximize his possible return.

that pretty much nails it. Unless some team is really desperate(Dunn is the only real answer) I can't see Dunn bringing much in a deal, he may not get traded at all and just be allowed to walk at the end of the year.

[RedsManRick]

Honestly I don't think either Jr or Dunn will bring much in a trade. The trend in recent years is to hang on to top prospects and deal at most middling prospects(if even that) for rent-a-players.

I think the difference now is that if you want high ceiling prospects, you have to go lower in the system, taking on greater risk in the process. You aren't likely to get that guy in AA or AAA ready to go. I think the biggest inefficiency in the market right now is with post-hype sleepers, if you'll allow me to rip off a fantasy baseball term. More specifically, it's those guys who were once great prospects, but where the bloom is off the rose a bit.

Take a guy like Dallas McPherson (prior to this year), Brandon Wood, even our own Homer Bailey. So much attention is being paid to the next great prospect, that I think teams are taking their eye off the guys who still have the talent but didn't succeed immediately. That's where I'd be targeting.

Could you trade Dunn (or Griffey) for Andy Marte, for example?

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm interested as to why you think it's unlikely. He's done nothing but put up great stats in the past, and at age 28 he's in his prime. Sure his numbers aren't very good right now, but I don't know of too many people who expect these struggles to continue for another 5 months.

Perhaps by amazing you mean 50 HRs, 1.000+ OPS, etc., which yes, is pretty unlikely. However, I don't think 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, .900+ OPS is either unlikely or anything to be scoffed at.

I'm fully aware of what Dunn can do, it's what he can't do that's the problem. What I meant by amazing stats was, batting over 300, cutting the Ks down by half, and improving his defensive play. I'm not knocking Dunn for these things, but they are his weaker points.

Personally, I think $15 million a year for Dunn (especially for multiple years) is too steep. $15 million to me (particularly for a small market team) is elite player status. I just don't consider Dunn an elite player. He's a very good player and he is very valuable to the Reds, but I don't consider him elite.

I see Dunn being worth $10 million to the Reds, maybe $12 million per year. What many of us don't know is where the Reds will be 1 or 2 months from now and that probably plays a bigger part than anything else.