If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

[kaldaniels]

Dump Leake. Not because Homer has taken a dramatic step forward (though 200 IP is significant). But because Leake is a HR tee who has yet to have an above average season as a major leaguer.

You'll probably inflame some on here with that choice of words, but you have a point. 3 full seasons under Leake's belt, with this being his worst if I'm not mistaken, he kinda is what he is, though as a fan I love to watch his non-pitching skills.

That said I'm 100% fine with him as my #5 guy when you look around the rest of the league.

[Brutus]

Leake has a GB:FB ratio of 2:1. If you believe that Leake has the ability to get "teed" for homers more often on flyballs than every other pitcher in the history of baseball, more power to you.

His career road ERA, which seems to be a pretty good measure of a pitcher lifetime as it's theoretically environment-neutral, is 3.90. His FIP mostly agrees with that (4.03).

Not bad for a tee.

[Scrap Irony]

He's tied for 94th in WAR (at 1.5) among 156 starters with the most IP.

In the National League, he's tied for 50th.

Interestingly, according to WAR, he's been more valuable than Edison Volquez and Aaron Harang, both of whom are immediately below him on the WAR list.

As a fifth starter, that's some serious value.

[757690]

Dump Leake. Not because Homer has taken a dramatic step forward (though 200 IP is significant). But because Leake is a HR tee who has yet to have an above average season as a major leaguer.

Leake is two years you get than Bailey. At the same point in his career, Bailey nada 5.09 ERA and everyone was asking his detractors to be patient. Leake, except for a 2 game minor league stint in 2011, has been learning on the job his entire professional career.

Any reason not to be patient with Leake?

[Tom Servo]

I think Leake has more trade value, therefore he is the one I would trade.

[KittyDuran]

Leake is two years you get than Bailey. At the same point in his career, Bailey nada 5.09 ERA and everyone was asking his detractors to be patient. Leake, except for a 2 game minor league stint in 2011, has been learning on the job his entire professional career.

Any reason not to be patient with Leake?

Leake doesn't blow anyone away with his pitches? IMHO, and I've mentioned this before, despite both Bailey and Leake being first round draft choices, Homer was more anticipated - Leake just had a great ST in 2010 and got into the majors and there was no build-up and not much was really expected of him. I remember not only watching Homer in Dayton, but getting excited about him getting to the bigs (pretty much like Dunn). Heck, they even had t-shirts out the first week IIRC (saw a few last Sunday). There is also the Leake t-shirt incident and what some think is a major character flaw and immaturity issue. Plus I get a feeling that some have met Mike and maybe he's comes across as a big jerk...

Just my .02 cents...

[757690]

Leake doesn't blow anyone away with his pitches? IMHO, and I've mentioned this before, despite both Bailey and Leake being first round draft choices, Homer was more anticipated - Leake just had a great ST in 2010 and got into the majors and there was no build-up and not much was really expected of him. I remember not only watching Homer in Dayton, but getting excited about him getting to the bigs (pretty much like Dunn). Heck, they even had t-shirts out the first week IIRC (saw a few last Sunday). There is also the Leake t-shirt incident and what some think is a major character flaw and immaturity issue. Plus I get a feeling that some have met Mike and maybe he's comes across as a big jerk...

Just my .02 cents...

That's a great psychological analysis of why people have been more patient with Homer, and it makes sense. But it's not that logical, lol. And if the Reds trade Leake, what are you going to do with your lucky t-shirt?

[Jefferson24]

thankfully neither have to go and will hopefully they only get better next year, and that is a real good thing.

[KittyDuran]

That's a great psychological analysis of why people have been more patient with Homer, and it makes sense. But it's not that logical, lol. And if the Reds trade Leake, what are you going to do with your lucky t-shirt?

That t-shirt has been lucky about 50% of the time! No, the analysis is not logical more of a gut feeling - all players have haters. I don't mean in a sense of poor performance they get the hate, it's something more vague... I personally have a hard time accepting that only because I just want whoever is wearing the wishbone "C" to do a good job and help the team win.

[KittyDuran]

thankfully neither have to go and will hopefully they only get better next year, and that is a real good thing.

Are they both up for arbitration at the end of the year?

[Brutus]

thankfully neither have to go and will hopefully they only get better next year, and that is a real good thing.

Neither have to, but if you accept, like I do, that Aroldis is and should be a starter going forward, it makes sense to capitalize on their value and trade one of them. I think you could get a starting LF or CF for either one.

[KittyDuran]

Neither have to, but if you accept, like I do, that Aroldis is and should be a starter going forward, it makes sense to capitalize on their value and trade one of them. I think you could get a starting LF or CF for either one.

Then I would think you'll get more for Bailey than Leake. Also, will they wait until after ST next year to trade - after seeing if Chapman can be effective as a starter?

[Brutus]

Then I would think you'll get more for Bailey than Leake. Also, will they wait until after ST next year to trade - after seeing if Chapman can be effective as a starter?

I agree with Bailey having slightly more trade value, probably.

That said, Homer doesn't have options and Leake would have to be optioned in the spring as his option clock expires the first week of April 2013 or he'd be exposed to waivers. And I don't see them optioning him anyhow.

I just don't see the Reds keeping either guy in the bullpen, as that would seem redundant and not that great a value. So I think they're better off just trading them. Worst case scenario, barring injury, it's not really likely Chapman will give them any less production as a starter than either of the other two, so the Reds aren't really gambling much by trading one of them. In the event something catastrophic happens, they'd only need to go out and get a fifth starter.

[KittyDuran]

I agree with Bailey having slightly more trade value, probably.

That said, Homer doesn't have options and Leake would have to be optioned in the spring as his option clock expires the first week of April 2013 or he'd be exposed to waivers. And I don't see them optioning him anyhow.

I just don't see the Reds keeping either guy in the bullpen, as that would seem redundant and not that great a value. So I think they're better off just trading them. Worst case scenario, barring injury, it's not really likely Chapman will give them any less production as a starter than either of the other two, so the Reds aren't really gambling much by trading one of them. In the event something catastrophic happens, they'd only need to go out and get a fifth starter.

So you're also eluding to Madson coming back as a closer (maybe even Broxton in that role)?

[Jefferson24]

Neither have to, but if you accept, like I do, that Aroldis is and should be a starter going forward, it makes sense to capitalize on their value and trade one of them. I think you could get a starting LF or CF for either one.

I'm not so sure you get the quality OF starter that would be such an improvement that it would be worth trading. I am also not convinced that Chapman will be that effective as a starter. The more exposed he gets the more pedestrian he becomes.