Who is Redszone's #9 prospect?

[BRM]

All Dickerson has done in his minor league career is provide excellent defense at a key position and have an above average bat for that position.

And of course when he went to a higher level this past season, he was a dominant bat.

If his average OPS is 200 points lower than his first go around in the majors, he's likely one of the better CF's in the game. That may be rose colored glasses talking, but his OBP has always been pretty good, and I figure that will translate pretty well in the majors.

I hear you TRF. I love Chris Dickerson as well (although I didn't vote for him). I just think most folks are going to look past him simply due to his age. He's pretty much viewed as a finished product at this point and not many really look at him as a prospect.

[fearofpopvol1]

915

That's Dorn's minor league career OPS.

915 would lead the Reds in OPS by a wide, wide margin. And he plays LF.

His only problems are:
1) He's not a high enough draft pick to warrant extra attention
2) He's not RH

Dorn can help neither. All he can do is to continue to hit.

Here's betting he will do just that.

Yep, he's got my vote. I just don't have enough info to really rank Duran yet. I know his ceiling is enormous...but it's still early for me. I feel that Dorn has shown the most of this bunch to me (outside of Dickerson who I don't really consider a prospect at this point).

[BRM]

915

That's Dorn's minor league career OPS.

915 would lead the Reds in OPS by a wide, wide margin. And he plays LF.

His only problems are:
1) He's not a high enough draft pick to warrant extra attention
2) He's not RH

Dorn can help neither. All he can do is to continue to hit.

Here's betting he will do just that.

He's currently porjected to be a platoon leftfielder who plays average defense at best. I suspect that's what is hurting him in these votes.

[TRF]

I hear you TRF. I love Chris Dickerson as well (although I didn't vote for him). I just think most folks are going to look past him simply due to his age. He's pretty much viewed as a finished product at this point and not many really look at him as a prospect.

yeah, it's the same knock I have against Stubbs, so I am applying a bit of a double standard. I see Stubbs with a similar skillset, with a little less power. I guess I do so due to draft position.

[BRM]

yeah, it's the same knock I have against Stubbs, so I am applying a bit of a double standard. I see Stubbs with a similar skillset, with a little less power. I guess I do so due to draft position.

Stubbs "projects" to have more power though, doesn't he? Are they considered equals defensively?

[TRF]

Stubbs had some power in college. He hasn't shown much since. Defensively from what I've read its just about a wash, though I think doug would no better than me on that.

[dougdirt]

Stubbs "projects" to have more power though, doesn't he? Are they considered equals defensively?

Stubbs projects to have more power and his defense is a little bit better, although its pretty darn close. Stubbs also doesn't look like he is going to strike out as much as Dickerson has, which likely means a bit higher average as well.

[TRF]

I think their K rates are very close to each other. Stubb's rate dropped a bit in 2008, but how much of that was sample in each league? His K rate at AAA was almost exactly the same as Dickerson's, maybe a tick under.

[kpresidente]

Here's a bold prediction: The next 3 go Duran, Dickerson, and Dorn in that order.

[OnBaseMachine]

Here's a bold prediction: The next 3 go Duran, Dickerson, and Dorn in that order.

That's how I plan on voting.

[dougdirt]

I think their K rates are very close to each other. Stubb's rate dropped a bit in 2008, but how much of that was sample in each league? His K rate at AAA was almost exactly the same as Dickerson's, maybe a tick under.

Of course Dickerson is quite a bit older too. Stubbs was at 23.8%, Dickerson was at 24.8%. The previous season when Dickerson was 25 and in AAA his K% was 31.2%.

[OnBaseMachine]

It's getting tough for me. As previously noted, I'll probably go with Dickerson at #10 and Danny Dorn #11. After that, I'm not sure. I wanna vote for Yorman Rodriguez somewhere in the top 15, but I also like the three relievers, Ramon Ramirez, and Mesoraco. We'll see. I think the system is pretty deep with solid prospects right now.

[Orenda]

He's currently porjected to be a platoon leftfielder who plays average defense at best. I suspect that's what is hurting him in these votes.

This is where the projection people lose me. In one hand you have a guy like Dorn who was a late round draft pick who has done nothing but produce steadily and abundantly yet continues to fly under the radar. On the other hand you have a guy like Drew Stubbs who was a high pick who has shown contact issues and inconsistent power at an advanced age for his level, barring the final month and a half of the last season.

The Stubbs supporters will point out that he combines good OBP skills with plus defense and speed, and is projected to improve his power.

Juan Fransisco supporters will suggest that if he can learn to become slightly more selective year after year than he could become a very dangerous power hitter.

Homer Bailey supporters will suggest he has the ability to develop and locate his secondary pitches. The list goes on and on of prospects who are thought to have this internal ability to improve their game in a certain area.

And then there are the guys, like Dorn, who for whatever reason are not given the benefit of the doubt that other prospects are. Why doesn't Dorn project to become an everyday player? If your reason is that he will merely turn out to be a platoon player because he has struggled to hit against lefties than why do you think he doesn't have the ability to improve? If I say that I think it is reasonable that he could improve to hit 250/330/400 against lefties is that enough to change his projectability? I'm not discounting BA and scouts opinions because they're useful but I'm not going to completely ignore production or minimize a prospect because he doesn't have the same following like the other guys. The other guys are pretty safe prospects to "project" because we all can recognize their individual talents and athleticism even if they don't ever pan out as ML's, however Dorn is a guy who was passed over many times yet continues to produce like he doesn't know better. Someone should just go tell him he's garbage and that he's not a very good baseball player. Judging from his results I don't know if he'll be listening to you.

[dougdirt]

This is where the projection people lose me. In one hand you have a guy like Dorn who was a late round draft pick who has done nothing but produce steadily and abundantly yet continues to fly under the radar. On the other hand you have a guy like Drew Stubbs who was a high pick who has shown contact issues and inconsistent power at an advanced age for his level, barring the final month and a half of the last season.

The Stubbs supporters will point out that he combines good OBP skills with plus defense and speed, and is projected to improve his power.

Juan Fransisco supporters will suggest that if he can learn to become slightly more selective year after year than he could become a very dangerous power hitter.

Homer Bailey supporters will suggest he has the ability to develop and locate his secondary pitches. The list goes on and on of prospects who are thought to have this internal ability to improve their game in a certain area.

And then there are the guys, like Dorn, who for whatever reason are not given the benefit of the doubt that other prospects are. Why doesn't Dorn project to become an everyday player? If your reason is that he will merely turn out to be a platoon player because he has struggled to hit against lefties than why do you think he doesn't have the ability to improve? If I say that I think it is reasonable that he could improve to hit 250/330/400 against lefties is that enough to change his projectability? I'm not discounting BA and scouts opinions because they're useful but I'm not going to completely ignore production or minimize a prospect because he doesn't have the same following like the other guys. The other guys are pretty safe prospects to "project" because we all can recognize their individual talents and athleticism even if they don't ever pan out as ML's, however Dorn is a guy who was passed over many times yet continues to produce like he doesn't know better. Someone should just go tell him he's garbage and that he's not a very good baseball player. Judging from his results I don't know if he'll be listening to you.

I don't think you will find anyone thats a bigger supporter of Danny Dorn than me, but here are a few things on why he isn't rated yet.

1. He plays a position very easy to fill at the major league level with a guy who can OPS .800.
2. He can't hit lefties at all. He shows plate discipline against them, which is good, but he has no power against them.
3. His defense isn't anything special and he isn't strong armed either.

Those are the three biggest things going against him. That said, I ranked him as my #9 guy in the system because even if he is just a platoon player, 400-450 PA of what he brings against right handed pitching is too hard to pass up.

[Mario-Rijo]

This is where the projection people lose me. In one hand you have a guy like Dorn who was a late round draft pick who has done nothing but produce steadily and abundantly yet continues to fly under the radar. On the other hand you have a guy like Drew Stubbs who was a high pick who has shown contact issues and inconsistent power at an advanced age for his level, barring the final month and a half of the last season.

The Stubbs supporters will point out that he combines good OBP skills with plus defense and speed, and is projected to improve his power.

Juan Fransisco supporters will suggest that if he can learn to become slightly more selective year after year than he could become a very dangerous power hitter.

Homer Bailey supporters will suggest he has the ability to develop and locate his secondary pitches. The list goes on and on of prospects who are thought to have this internal ability to improve their game in a certain area.

And then there are the guys, like Dorn, who for whatever reason are not given the benefit of the doubt that other prospects are. Why doesn't Dorn project to become an everyday player? If your reason is that he will merely turn out to be a platoon player because he has struggled to hit against lefties than why do you think he doesn't have the ability to improve? If I say that I think it is reasonable that he could improve to hit 250/330/400 against lefties is that enough to change his projectability? I'm not discounting BA and scouts opinions because they're useful but I'm not going to completely ignore production or minimize a prospect because he doesn't have the same following like the other guys. The other guys are pretty safe prospects to "project" because we all can recognize their individual talents and athleticism even if they don't ever pan out as ML's, however Dorn is a guy who was passed over many times yet continues to produce like he doesn't know better. Someone should just go tell him he's garbage and that he's not a very good baseball player. Judging from his results I don't know if he'll be listening to you.

I don't have a problem whatsoever with Dorn. In fact I agree he's being overlooked for what reason I am not sure, but I think I have an idea. Perhaps it's got something to do with the fact that people may be a bit misinformed about him. I know I was, I just went ahead and assumed the worst when told he was a bad fielder who could only play LF and who couldn't hit vs. LHP's. As it turns out he does have a tough time vs. LHP's but what wasn't suggested is that he is still being disciplined and making no less contact against them than vs. RHP's but just isn't hitting them hard....yet.

I also hadn't realized that he had played quite a bit of 1st base this season where he was pretty solid in terms of errors (1) and he seemed to exhibit really nice (Votto-esque) range at the position, according to the #'s anyway. But I also learned that he has only had 3 errors in the OF in his minor league career. So perhaps he isn't as bad as advertised, and he definitely has the defensive versatility that I was previously unaware of until I went and looked harder myself recently.

IMO I definitely put him ahead of Duran and Francisco but I always did anyway. The question is do I move him ahead of a kid with a high ceiling that showed me something who plays at a premium position, (Mes). I probably should but Catcher is one of the 2 hardest positions to fill if not the hardest with a quality player which I still believe he is. And the fact that he is a catcher in itself makes him a more valuable prospect. Dorn IMO is a no doubt top 10 Reds prospect and a better one than people are giving him credit for. Mostly because they are relying on someone else to give them all the info and not looking closely into it themselves.