I wonder if you could work something out with the Angels. Darren Oliver is there only lefty in the pen. He's been ok but how long will that last? And they've gotten squat from their catchers. They've also buried Reggie Willits, who's languishing with a .185 BA. but he's got a solid record of getting on base. Of course he may not be a true CF which would be key to playing time.
Anyhow Ross/Affeldt for Willits and one of their young catchers? Angels are notorious for holding on to guys but its looking like their year and they need to think about the post-season.
Sign me up. I've been thinking Affeldt/Willits would be a good deal for both teams. If the Angels would deal a catcher in exchange for Ross I'd do that too, but its doubtful. I wouldn't trade any of their catchers for any of the Reds guys if I were them. Maybe if we threw in some more LH pitching depth like say Maloney or Pelland and a couple prospects at lower levels. I'd be happy with Affeldt/Willits.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I know how funny it sounds, but if the Reds replaced the 94.0 IP as starters from Josh Fogg, Homer Bailey, and Matt Belisle (the Reds' #5 starters) with Rich Harden (who was available in the offseason for prospects), the team ERA shaves off more than half a run. That's the difference one piece can make. If the Reds had made another move like that, I think they would have been in the thick of the race. I'm not saying the Reds should have done that--I'm just saying it's realistic.
Code:Player Ag ERA W L SV GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ---+-------------------+--+---+------+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+- SP Homer Bailey 22 6.52 0 4 0 6 29.0 44 25 21 8 13 11 SP Matt Belisle 28 7.28 1 4 0 6 29.7 47 27 24 4 6 14 SP Josh Fogg 31 7.09 2 3 0 8 35.3 46 37 34 10 14 21 ---+-------------------+--+---+------+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+- TOTAL 26 6.99 3 11 0 20 94.0 137 89 79 22 33 46 Player Ag ERA W L SV GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ---+-------------------+--+---+------+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+- SP Rich Harden 26 2.10 5 2 0 16 94.3 65 23 22 7 39 122 CURRENT STARTING PITCHING TEAM GP W L ERA IP H ER R BB SO Cincinnati 106 34 43 5.01 594.1 660 335 366 221 500 CURRENT STARTING PITCHING WITHOUT Bailey, Belisle, and Fogg Cincinnati 86 31 31 4.60 500.1 523 256 277 188 454 CURRENT STARTING PITCHING IF Bailey, Belisle, and Fogg WERE REPLACED BY Harden Cincinnati 102 36 33 4.21 594.2 588 278 300 227 576
I think it's perfectly plausible to say the Reds are only a couple moves away from being a division contender. The problem is that when they lose Dunn, they'll be about four moves away, and I worry that the people in charge don't realize that.
Stick to your guns.
What the numbers above actually demonstrate, though, is that we'd be in vastly better shape if Harden replaced our #1 starter.
I think it's very unrealistic to think the Reds are anywhere near serious contention. We have a young first baseman who has not demonstrated the ability to hit enough for that position, we have a solid, if free-swinging second baseman, we have a good utility player at SS, and an above-average all around, but challenged, defender at third. We have a right-fielder who is the worst #3 hitter in baseball, a young prospect in CF or RF who has great talent but is only barely getting his feet wet, and a slugging left-fielder who is weak defensively. Our catching is weak, period, and our bench players have got to be, as a group, the worst in baseball. We have an injured #1 starter, a very promising but largely untested pair of young starters, and a marginal #4 paid as a #2 whose ERA has been around 6.00 most of this season. The fifth starters are just plain bad. We have an erratic, overpaid closer; a very good set-up man now hurt, an aging veteran 3rd guy who will not be with the team next year; a pair of hard-throwing left-handers, one improving, the other completely undependable; and a promising retread with a very nice curveball. Beyond that group, we have the others. We have a traditional manager who assesses talent according to intuitions and a pitching coach who's not really shown the ability to develop anybody. How, on earth, does this add up to anything approaching a contender? I don't mean to be harsh, but we will not get anywhere until we start to evaluate realistically what we have and do not have.
Ouch. An 11-nothing diagnosis?
Its not as bad as all that. You've got a core of young hitters -- Dunn, Bruce, Votto, Phillips and Encarnacion -- that a lot of teams would kill for (my Giants-fan friends sure would). You've got three pitchers who could win a short series by themselves. And now you've got one of the best bullpens in the league.
I think chilli's prognosis is closer to the truth. With the caveat that moving Dunn doesn't have to set us "four moves back" if he brings the right return. Sadly, it looks like the league isn't interested.
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