BA: Reds 2014 Top 10 Prospects

[PepperJack]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor...-10-prospects/


Robert Stephenson
Billy Hamilton
Phillip Ervin
Jesse Winker
Yorman Rodriguez
Michael Lorenzen
Carlos Contreras
Nick Travieso
Ben Lively
Tucker Barnhart


BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average------- Phillip Ervin
Best Power Hitter ------------Jesse Winker
Best Strike-Zone Discipline----Jesse Winker
Fastest Baserunner-----------Billy Hamilton
Best Athlete------------------Billy Hamilton
Best Fastball-----------------Robert Stephenson
Best Curveball----------------Robert Stephenson
Best Slider--------------------Curtis Partch
Best Changeup----------------Ismael Guillon
Best Control-------------------Drew Cisco
Best Defensive Catcher---------Tucker Barnhart
Best Defensive Infielder --------Tanner Rahier
Best Infield Arm----------------Cory Thompson
Best Defensive Outfielder-------Ryan LaMarre
Best Outfield Arm--------------Yorman Rodriguez

[Benihana]

Actually seems about right. One could pick nits a bit after Lorenzen, but by and large they seem to have got it about right.

[klw]

Wait I thought Y Rod had a "Pierre like Noddle Arm"

[Benihana]

Interesting that Rahier is voted best defensive infielder. If he can learn how to get on base, he could become a really interesting prospect.

Does this mean that you have to be a subscriber to participate in and/or view the transcript of the chat at 2:30?

[PepperJack]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...-top-prospect/

“I think Stephenson did everything needed to flip spots with Hamilton this year and kind of separate himself a little bit,” Cooper said. “He doesn’t get mentioned as much as a guy like Archie Bradley or Taijuan Walker or guys like that, but the reality of it is he is one of the best pitching prospects in the game right now.”

“The Reds seem to have a knack in recent years of drafting a college pitcher in the third, fourth round range and watching him really step in an emerge pretty quickly,” Cooper said. “Obviously Tony Cingrani is the best example of that, but Dan Langfield, who missed all of this year with shoulder problems, was pretty similar last year and then Lively moved really fast this year.”

[Benihana]

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...-top-prospect/

What's most interesting from that article is BA implies the next three on the list outside the top 10 would be

Kivel
Guillon
Corcino

in that order (they list their "Top 15 players under 25" list). I'm a bit surprised that Kivel and Guillon make it over Sharky Rogers, Amir Garrett, Seth Mejias-Brean, Junior Arias and Tanner Rahier- especially the latter two who BA seemed to love in the past. I guess not as surprised about Rogers and SMB being passed over, but the other three are really toolsy guys with strong pedigrees - two things BA really values, at least historically.

[dougdirt]

What's most interesting from that article is BA implies the next three on the list outside the top 10 would be

Kivel
Guillon
Corcino

in that order (they list their "Top 15 players under 25" list). I'm a bit surprised that Kivel and Guillon make it over Sharky Rogers, Amir Garrett, Seth Mejias-Brean, Junior Arias and Tanner Rahier- especially the latter two who BA seemed to love in the past. I guess not as surprised about Rogers and SMB being passed over, but the other three are really toolsy guys with strong pedigrees - two things BA really values, at least historically.

I'm just surprised that a guy like Guillon is anywhere near the top 10. His stuff is good, but it isn't elite. And he walked 95 batters in 121 innings in Low-A. I just can't put together how that gets you ranked that highly. There are guys ranked behind him with better stuff without gigantic warts on their resume.

[M2]

The top 5 were obvious. Nice to see OFs dominating the list. If you look at the major league roster, the OF is where it's going to need help in the coming years. The next 5 is a free-for-all. Would have been nice to see BA champion a sleeper in that section.

My thoughts on some of the 6-10 candidates:

Lorenzen - He was pretty much a lock for #6 given his draft pedigree. Next year he needs to turn promise into performance.

Contreras - Hard thrower who did well in the Cali league. Can he be more than the next Jose Acevedo?

Travieso - Has no business in a top 10. His velocity is down (at least supposedly, though there is an argument that he never had consistent velocity). He does not have a plus secondary pitch. His frame doesn't lend itself to a lot of projection. Looks like a pudgy future reliever. Getting more press than he's earned.

Lively - The opposite of Travieso. All of his pitches were better than advertised and he's got great frame. The Reds may have had themselves a dynamite 2013 draft.

Barnhart - A bit of a Ryan Hanigan clone (though the LH stick is a nice variation). Safe pick in that he will have a major league career - probably got a Tom Lampkin floor.

Corcino - I really wanted him traded last winter. Still got a chance to become a pitcher, but he's no longer a prospect.

Arias - He's got the power/speed thing. The Reds have a lot of would-be prospects (Gelalich, Rosa, Waldrop, Silva, LaMarre) who've disappointed in one or both of those areas. Arias seems like he might be the one who can deliver both attached to some defense and OB.

Jose Ortiz - Might have a rocket strapped to his back in terms of prospects lists if his 2014 builds on his 2013 numbers.

Sharky - All he does is succeed.

Mejias-Brean - The Sharky equivalent in the position player pool.

Most of all, I think we're just sort of waiting on next season when kids like Cory Thompson, K.J. Franklin, Mark Armstrong, Tyler Mahle, Aristided Aquino, Kevin Garcia and Amir Garrett will get the chance to give this list a serious shuffle.

[mace]

Interesting that Rahier is voted best defensive infielder. If he can learn how to get on base, he could become a really interesting prospect.

That stood out to me, too, in light of the fact that Mejias-Brean, Mattair, and Vidal have all received great reviews for their defense at various times, from various sources.

[dougdirt]

Travieso - Has no business in a top 10. His velocity is down (at least supposedly, though there is an argument that he never had consistent velocity). He does not have a plus secondary pitch. His frame doesn't lend itself to a lot of projection. Looks like a pudgy future reliever. Getting more press than he's earned.

Lively - The opposite of Travieso. All of his pitches were better than advertised and he's got great frame. The Reds may have had themselves a dynamite 2013 draft.

Jose Ortiz - Might have a rocket strapped to his back in terms of prospects lists if his 2014 builds on his 2013 numbers.

I saw Travieso hit 97 several times this year. Let's not just go out there and pretend he can't bring the heat. Yeah, he didn't sit 95 most games, but the guys who do in the system can be counted on three fingers and two of them are ranked ahead of him here.

Lively is interesting. I want to see how the stuff plays over 6 innings instead of 2-4 though.

Ortiz.... agreed.

[Benihana]

Anything interesting out of the chat?

[dougdirt]

Anything interesting out of the chat?

Not yet.

[M2]

I saw Travieso hit 97 several times this year. Let's not just go out there and pretend he can't bring the heat. Yeah, he didn't sit 95 most games, but the guys who do in the system can be counted on three fingers and two of them are ranked ahead of him here.

Lively is interesting. I want to see how the stuff plays over 6 innings instead of 2-4 though.

But the lack of consistency with Travieso's heat is the problem. He seems to be able to get it there at times with some effort. Given his frame and his stroke, short duration heat might be all he ever develops. Maybe he finds easy heat in the next year or two. Maybe he develops some really good secondary offerings. When that happens then he absolutely should climb onto and up top 10 lists. Yet right now he should be an 11-20 prospect with some potential and a lot of work to do (kind of like Yorman Rodriguez before this past season).

Lively is this year's Dan Langfield to a degree. Hopefully he stays healthy and we get to see him take that next step. And hopefully Langfield comes back too. Could make for a sweet rotation in Dayton.

[Benihana]

Nothing out of chat?

[dougdirt]

Nothing out of chat?

The most "interesting" thing was probably on the DSL kids and even then, nothing really jumped out.