Thanks for posting. Now for discussion...Originally Posted by bucksfan2
Excuse me? I had no idea. Any of you stat geeks know if this is true? I will say this.... Drew Stubbs might be a very valuable (and highly sought after) player over the next 6 years.
The new Moneyball player looks a lot like Boston's new centerfielder: fast, athletic, a slick fielder who even at age 37 and for $8 million a year is a bargain. "Mike Cameron played on two of the 10 best defensive teams of all time [the 2001 Mariners and the 1999 Reds]," says Blengino. "Every team he's played for has gotten better. Every team he's left collapsed when he left. No, Mike Cameron's not a Hall of Famer. But he's clearly a winning baseball player."
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
I can just add that watching Pokey, Larkin, and Cameron up the middle was amazing. That was the foundation for a great team.
They made Parris, Villone, and Tomko look like all stars.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
I don't think they were better than the BRM or the Orioles teams of the late 60's and early 70's.
"Boys, I'm one of those umpires that misses 'em every once in a while so if it's close, you'd better hit it." Cal Hubbard
I read this article last night and found it interesting. As I have stated in other in other treads I think the defensive statistics have been given a little too much value. I just think they are too difficult to place an accurate number on as well as have an accurate sample size.
Now my thoughts on the article.
Seattle has become the new vogue franchise. Starting with their attentiveness to defense but they only won 85 games last season with a $100M + payroll.
They did have an impressive off season, and I do see that they are committing to pitching and defense, but it does help when you can sign or trade for prized FA's.
I do agree that defense is at the most importance is up the middle.
Is it Mike Cammeron or is it the teams he has been on. I believe David Justice had a pretty impressive run making the post season 10+ years in a row. Seems like Cammeron is a nice player, but the teams he has been on haven't been chumps either.
Not mentioned in the article is Seattle is not using a weight room this year. I wonder what will take its place and how that will work out. IMO in every sport weight training and conditioning is at the up most importance.
An interesting quote. To me when something becomes to the forefront the advantage is usually moot. So I am wondering where the next movement will be.
"Defense might be the new OBP," says Blengino, "but at some point it's going to be something else that will be underappreciated. It may be something that has nothing to do with the statistical perspective. A team that figures out how to get 250 innings out of a starter, for example, is going to have a huge advantage. Who knows what the next inefficiency in the marketplace is going to be."
Will Carroll has been arguing for years that the next great market inefficiency to be exploited will be health related, particularly with pitchers and likely through different usage patterns.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Everyone is going to be taught how to pitch like Tim Lincecum.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
If a team could figure out how to keep their pitchers healthier than everyone else's, they'd rule MLB, until everyone else figured out how they were doing it and copied them.
"Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons
Carroll might be conflicted in saying that.
I don't think Seattle is alone in emphasizing defense. The Reds have been moving in the same direction. I see zero tolerance for players who cannot field their positions. That is the primary reason I am not sanguine about Francisco's future with the Reds.
Teams have been overpaying for power hitters and power pitchers for years. HR's are glamorous and fill the seats. Large market teams are, however, becoming more selective in free agent signings. They still give expensive contracts, but they are cherry picking sluggers who are also good defenders. Power hitters who are not good defensively are having more trouble getting jobs. Instead of ponying up for these second tier HR hitters, a strategy that might temporarily appease the fan base while ultimately producing a disappointing season, mid and small market teams are investing in defense. Personally, I prefer seeing my team turn a sure hit into a double play to seeing a HR.
Many RZ'ers have been ready to dismiss Janish because of his poor offensive contribution. Will the team defense be as good with Cabrera? Perhaps, but it has not yet been proven. Despite a .211 average, the Reds were winning with Janish. It makes sense to me to keep Janish on the roster, give him an occasional start, and review the results as objectively as possible. A game winning hit is much more obvious than a gold glove caliber play in the early innings. Yet, each could decide a game.
You're right. They're building a team by emphasizing efficiency and maximizing impact.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
And yet, how much do you think teams spend on their training staff, facilities, and research each year? I'm guessing it's something in the neighborhood of the salary of 1 decent middle reliever.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Obviously he's got a selfish interest in teams spending more on injury analysis and research -- but that doesn't invalidate his point.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Its what the market bears. Heck the POTUS makes less than 1 decent middle reliever.
FWIW if you want to advance the health and stamina, without PED's, you have to go all the way back to little league and high school. Get good coaches in high school who teach not only proper mechanics, but follow a pitching schedule that allows a pitcher to throw on a set schedule. You would have to go to the college ranks and make sure coaches didn't abuse pitchers as they advance through tournaments.
I think Nolan Ryan has a good idea, get rid of pitch counts, but that has to start very early in a players baseball career. But inevitably it all goes back to physics, the throwing motion is an un-natural violent motion. Unless you can create some kind of magic formula you will continue to see pitchers have arm injuries.
I've been harping on defense since I've been on RZ as have many others for just the reasons (amongst others) expressed in that piece. It was always real simple to me that it comes cheap and can help your team improve alot, why does it take these "genuises" so darn long to notice the obvious? I'd much rather watch/follow a team like the one we have now than the ones we had for the 1st half/three quarters of the decade. But I guess I am not in the majority as most people think the sport is too boring anyway.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
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