Regardless of how the Reds plan to shift players if Cozart leaves, I don't think there is a huge market for him in the first place - He's 32 and has injury history, including this season when he played 122 games. He's not worth $17 million in my opinion but I'd love to know what the Reds and others perceive as his worth on the open market.
I predict they will not offer him a QO but will (and likely have had) ongoing discussions about bringing him back.
This summarized my position. A one year 17.7 million deal doesn't hurt the Reds. Giving Cozart a 3-4 year 40-50 million dollar deal does. So offer the QO and hope he declines. Live with it if he doesn't and trade him at the earliest opportunity.Originally Posted by PuffyPig
Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"
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Hoosier Red (10-16-2017)
They've been trying to trade him for years. What makes you think they'll be able to with him making 17M when they couldn't this season when he was having a career year?
I cannot for the life of me understand how the Reds benefit by offering him a 17 million one year contract. It would destroy the budget this year. What would even be the reason to do it? The comp pick isn’t much good anymore given the new bargaining agreement. If they being him back for 3 years and $35 I can see the rationale. Otherwise no thanks. Let’s move on.
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Griffey012 (10-13-2017)
He got injured at the completely wrong time.
The teams that were contending didn't really need a SS.
The imperfect storm so to speak.
But I'm OK with having him for a year at $17.4M. A 1-year contract cannot damage the future of the Reds.
We don't know what they turned down. The last few years, the Reds needed Cozart at SS, so they needed something of value back if they were to trade him.
If he accept a QO, and they try to trade him, they just need someone to take his salary. They don't need anything of value coming back.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
If the Reds have $20 million to spend on pitching this off-season, and use $17.4 million on Cozart, it certainly does damage the future.
Particularly since it’s a one-year deal for Zack. He’s not the future. No long term benefit. Why throw so much money on the SS position for 2018? Does he cement the playoffs for next year?
I think it would be a bad decision, unless the Reds are very confident Cozart will reject it.
Griffey012 (10-13-2017),Raisor (10-13-2017)
So as a logical extension of this argument, the Reds didn't trade him because they weren't offered something of value back?
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
100% correct.
And hopefully Cozart's team realizes this. If he takes the QO he loses the ability to decide where to go.
Last edited by JaxRed; 10-13-2017 at 10:33 AM.
Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"
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So the Reds couldn't find a partner when Cozrt was only owed $8M over two years or just $5M for 1 year but they should assume a bunch of risk because they should be able to easily trade him when he's owed $17M?
Alright, my mind is totally blown.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I don't think the Reds have any chance of making the playoffs next year.
The money given to Cozart would prevent them from signing one decent starter for next year. Considering they would also have to commit that money on a long term contract, I'd rather they spend it on a 1-year deal than going long term on some 30-year old starter.
The Reds need to sort out their internal pitching options first before going all in.
I consider the future more than just next year. Next year is the present. A 1-year can never damage the future.
It's 17M they won't have for other things.
The only math that is working on this issue is that '75 somehow found a way to parlay two more threads simultaneously to make the exact same arguments that have already already been repeatedly stated over and over again in about a million threads over a gazillion posts including a thread that is still currently open.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
The Reds could have played Porky Pig at SS and it wouldn't have really mattered. In hindsight, if Cozart is gone next year, it would have been more valuable to the future for Peraza to get all SS reps. So no, the Reds didn't need Cozart unless they needed to get 68 wins instead of 64.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
Kinsm (10-13-2017)
Zach Cozart just had a career year and is now eligible to be a free agent. From his standpoint, NOW is the time for him to try to get a multi-year contract. Even though the $17.4 million dollar deal sounds pretty good, it is for one year, without any no-trade protection. I predict he would turn down a QO to try to garner a multi-year deal. The risk to him is high that if he plays on a one year contract, his value could decline from where it is now.
The other reason Zach would turn down a QO is that the new CBA reduces the 'penalty' (loss of draft pick now after 3rd round rather than first) on the team that signs him.
From the Reds perspective, if he accepts the offer, they will have to look at a trade or an infield reconfiguration of Cozart/Senzel/Suarez et al. However, I think they will also assume that Cozart will decline the offer, and they would then get a post first round 'sandwich' pick. That's a decent return for the risk of Cozart accepting the offer.
My prediction: Reds make the QO to Zach Cozart.
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