Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

[mdccclxix]

My feeling is the Reds were likely going to have to bring Joseph along slowly, as they have Hoover and Redmond and Lecure, etc. Joseph is probably not on the 2013 team out of Spring Training. If they don't resign Bray, you know they'd sign a vet off the street to make sure the bullpen is set before they count on Joseph, who's command issues may creep back up. I'll say, often it's frustrating to see milb players get passed over for retreads, but let's not pretend that any AAA bullpen specialist with a k rate north of 10/9 is going to be a cornerstone for a playoff contender.

[Patrick Bateman]

Cueto keeps his walk rate in check. Broxton, this season, has walked 60% more batters per 9 innings than Johnny Cueto. Cueto has well above average control. Broxton, not so much.

Broxton also induces way less flyballs. Would be logical to suggest that he gives up less homers.

That's a thing worth considering.

[RedlegJake]

Broxton also induces way less flyballs. Would be logical to suggest that he gives up less homers.

That's a thing worth considering.

He's only allowed 1 all year

[VR]

Analysis I've heard, mostly from former major leaguers, talk about the sudden ridiculous back end of the bully for the Reds that make them nearly untouchable after the 6th inning.

An "off the radar" acquisition that didn't overcome a weakness, but rather enhanced a strength.

Teams that wanted to get their hitting in by the 8th, will now need to by the 6th or 7th.

I like that.

[757690]

Two non-stat thoughts on Broxton:

He's now around a year away from shoulder surgery. As Brutus pointed out, his velocity is increasing, which might lead to more K's, and just better overall production. Most pitchers take around a year to fully get back their stuff.

Baker wants a guy who he has faith in, to close when Chapman has been overused, as Patrick Bateman pointed out. I'm no scout, but I never liked Broxton as a closer. I've always felt he was a knucklehead who wasn't good under pressure. I actually thought this, before the famed Votto AB a few years ago in LA. That only re-inforced it. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the Broxton is a good candidate to help spell Chapman in the closer role. I guess we'll see.

[westofyou]

Analysis I've heard, mostly from former major leaguers, talk about the sudden ridiculous back end of the bully for the Reds that make them nearly untouchable after the 6th inning.

An "off the radar" acquisition that didn't overcome a weakness, but rather enhanced a strength.

Teams that wanted to get their hitting in by the 8th, will now need to by the 6th or 7th.

I like that.

It's been a team strength for all their winning years since the 50's, deep BP and workhorses in those roles.

Lord knows they need one in today's game.

[fearofpopvol1]

Broxton, even now, throws 95. That's faster than every reliever this year the Reds have (sans Superman).

Not to be too nitpicky, but Ondrusek regularly throws 95, and I've seen him hit 96 plenty of times and even 97.

[jojo]

Two non-stat thoughts on Broxton:

He's now around a year away from shoulder surgery. As Brutus pointed out, his velocity is increasing, which might lead to more K's, and just better overall production. Most pitchers take around a year to fully get back their stuff.

Baker wants a guy who he has faith in, to close when Chapman has been overused, as Patrick Bateman pointed out. I'm no scout, but I never liked Broxton as a closer. I've always felt he was a knucklehead who wasn't good under pressure. I actually thought this, before the famed Votto AB a few years ago in LA. That only re-inforced it. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the Broxton is a good candidate to help spell Chapman in the closer role. I guess we'll see.

His velocity really isn't increasing though.

In 2011, his average fastball velocity was 94.1 mph but it was limited to a data set of 12 IP. This season his fastball velocity has been 94.9 mph over roughly three times as many IP /pitches.

That's numerically different but really given the small sample, it's a tough sell to argue it's a meaningful difference.

But what of a narrative that his fastball velocity has continued to increase throughout this season suggesting one might expect Broxton to post higher Krates going forward as the season progresses toward the playoffs?

Below is a graph illustrating why such an argument really isn't valid. The red line represents Broxton's fastball average by game over his first 34 appearances. The hashed black line represents his rolling 5 game average fastball velocity in order to demonstrate a trend more clearly. The graph indicates that there is no evidence of an increase in velocity on Broxton's fastball. Pretty much what you see is what you're going to get. If anything, he might be losing a tick as the season ages.

[Brutus]

Not to be too nitpicky, but Ondrusek regularly throws 95, and I've seen him hit 96 plenty of times and even 97.

Sure, in isolation, but I was speaking in terms of consistency. Ondrusek's average fastball this year is 93.4 according to Fangraphs.

Here are the average speeds of Cincinnati's relievers:

Aroldis Chapman (97.6)
Jonathan Broxton (94.9)
Alfredo Simon (94.3)
Nick Massett (94.3) - 2011
Ryan Madson (94.0) - 2011
Logan Ondrusek (93.4)
J.J. Hoover (92.6)
Sean Marshall (90.7)
Jose Arredondo (90.7)
Sam LeCure (89.7)
Bill Bray (89.1)

Also, as far as the improving velocity subject, Brooks' FX chart has Broxton's fastball speed by month as:

March (94.48)
April (95.79)
May (95.95)
June (95.66)
July (96.72)

So his data suggests that the fastball speed has gradually improved all season, sans a small dip last month.

[757690]

His velocity really isn't increasing though.

In 2011, his average fastball velocity was 94.1 mph but it was limited to a data set of 12 IP. This season his fastball velocity has been 94.9 mph over roughly three times as many IP /pitches.

That's numerically different but really given the small sample, it's a tough sell to argue it's a meaningful difference.

But what of a narrative that his fastball velocity has continued to increase throughout this season suggesting one might expect Broxton to post higher Krates going forward as the season progresses toward the playoffs?

Below is a graph illustrating why such an argument really isn't valid. The red line represents Broxton's fastball average by game over his first 34 appearances. The hashed black line represents his rolling 5 game average fastball velocity in order to demonstrate a trend more clearly. The graph indicates that there is no evidence of an increase in velocity on Broxton's fastball. Pretty much what you see is what you're going to get. If anything, he might be losing a tick as the season ages.

Thanks for the correction.

[jojo]

Thanks for the correction.

No problem...i'm always happy to draw a graph....

Perhaps this is a good time for a Haiku:

Subtle rose petal,
Reaching skyward standing tall
Like dew covered truth.

[HokieRed]

Helpful graph, Jojo. I may be overreading it a bit, but I'm not sure it doesn't suggest some improvement in velocity. If it were a stock chart, I'd certainly be much more inclined to buy at appearance 27 and beyond as it breaks above the moving average than I would in the first 12 appearances, where there's a pattern of descending lows. To invent a narrative about the first 12 appearances, they look like just what one might expect from a pitcher coming off injury, testing his velocity at the high end in some outings and then not having it the next time or couple of times out--or at least not being willing to press for it. One thing the chart can't show, too, is recovery times--i.e. times between appearances (and their effects on velocity).

[mth123]

I'd quote Island Red and post a , but his post was many pages ago. The Reds overpayed, but I don't care.

I think Broxton improves the bullpen a bit and throwing reliever after reliever seems to be the new path to success in a post season game these days. I'm guessing the Reds may find a way to have an 8 or 9 man pen with a shorter bench in the post seson. Broxton is just another option.

[traderumor]

While doing a cost/benefit analysis on a transaction is reasonable, there sure does seem to be a trend of overemphasizing the warts of the player received in the analysis, some prospect(s) in the deal is overvalued, and a downplaying of the potential benefit. That is what gets me particularly frustrated in transaction discussions.

[edabbs44]

While doing a cost/benefit analysis on a transaction is reasonable, there sure does seem to be a trend of overemphasizing the warts of the player received in the analysis, some prospect(s) in the deal is overvalued, and a downplaying of the potential benefit. That is what gets me particularly frustrated in transaction discussions.

Always. The other thing that is being largely ignored is that the Reds have a great bullpen as it stands and Broxton is just another piece. If he were to be less than anticipated by the FO, the team will still be in pretty good shape. This wasn't the Cards obtaining a back end arm because they had to. It was adding an effective arm to an already very solid pen.