I agree. I've seen some people predicting 65-70 wins. I think this is more of a 80ish win team as constructed right now. If Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto breakout and have big seasons then that number improves by 4-5 wins. Add a Bobby Abreu type of bat for LF and it improves by another couple wins, IMO. But it could've been even better with a Dickerson/RH bat platoon in CF, a big bat in LF, and a defensive upgrade at SS.Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
Right now I'm thinking more like 75ish with an outside shot at .500. But that's expecting no major breakouts of any kind, but some marginal improvement in Cueto and Bruce and a bounceback from Harang.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
That's why I'm so peeved about the moves so far.
So close. They were so close to being a potential 85 win team. You mention Abreu and I think about what could have been.
I'm actually not as concerned about the defense as I am the offense. With the right offensive additions, it wouldn't matter as much as it does now.
"Not as Bad as Last Year" isn't gonna get it done with the current offensive configuration.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
Not as bad as last year still means they are likely finishing 15+ back in the division and nowhere near sniffing the WC. There are no prizes for getting to .500 unfortunately. A different, slightly better version of bad doesn't mean a whole lot to me. Here's to 2010!
We're probably looking at a .500 team this season and given life is a bell curve, there's a chance to be on the happy tail.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I have a feeling that Castellini will be popping the champagne cork when this team reaches .500. He has consistently said that finishing over .500 equals a "winner."
Most other owners would not be happy with that record; Cast should not be, either. It should be properly seen as the first step.
The best thing he could do when this team finally reaches .500 is to call it a failure and tell the media that he is not happy that the Reds have not reached their goal of winning a World Series. That's when he should next talk to the media, and not before then. The more he talks, the worse he makes it for himself.
As Mark Twain said: It's better to keep quiet and have people think you stupid, than to talk and confirm it.
Last edited by Always Red; 01-28-2009 at 07:29 PM.
sorry we're boring
The Red's Caravan was up in Lima (Ohio) the other day. Jocketty was aboard. The article appeared the next day in the Lima news (Reds Changing The Way They Play The Game), and one of the locals asked Walt about his inability so far to acquire a RH'd power-hitting LFer in the off-season, and if they were still looking?
Walt's response? While it was true we had Hr (power) hitters on the team last year, such as in Dunn and Griffey, we didn't hit them in key (clutch) situations, so basically, what good did it do us? And while Walt stated we will probably get 20+ Hr seasons from guys like Votto, EE, Hernandez, Bruce, and maybe AGon, Walt emphasized "run producers" (situational hitting) over Hr hitters.
So after one read through all his response, the answer is..... "No. We are done for the off-season."
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Agreed.
Cueto and Owings (or Ramirez or whoever wins the 5th starter spot) will go a long way to determining how watchable the 2009 Reds season will be.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
I agree, as well. This certainly isn't a playoff contender, at least as currently constructed, but I don't believe they'll be as bad as many here think (JMO).
Ah, a callback to DanO and his "Win-Efficient Scoring." Great.The Red's Caravan was up in Lima (Ohio) the other day. Jocketty was aboard. The article appeared the next day in the Lima news (Reds Changing The Way They Play The Game), and one of the locals asked Walt about his inability so far to acquire a RH'd power-hitting LFer in the off-season, and if they were still looking?
Walt's response? While it was true we had Hr (power) hitters on the team last year, such as in Dunn and Griffey, we didn't hit them in key (clutch) situations, so basically, what good did it do us? And while Walt stated we will probably get 20+ Hr seasons from guys like Votto, EE, Hernandez, Bruce, and maybe AGon, Walt emphasized "run producers" (situational hitting) over Hr hitters.
So after one read through all his response, the answer is..... "No. We are done for the off-season."
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
That's an absurd response from a General Manager.The Red's Caravan was up in Lima (Ohio) the other day. Jocketty was aboard. The article appeared the next day in the Lima news (Reds Changing The Way They Play The Game), and one of the locals asked Walt about his inability so far to acquire a RH'd power-hitting LFer in the off-season, and if they were still looking?
Walt's response? While it was true we had Hr (power) hitters on the team last year, such as in Dunn and Griffey, we didn't hit them in key (clutch) situations, so basically, what good did it do us? And while Walt stated we will probably get 20+ Hr seasons from guys like Votto, EE, Hernandez, Bruce, and maybe AGon, Walt emphasized "run producers" (situational hitting) over Hr hitters.
So after one read through all his response, the answer is..... "No. We are done for the off-season."
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
It's scary to think that a GM of a MLB team would dream of trying to make that sort of horrible statement.
Well, he's on a caravan trying to drum up support for the Reds. So I can understand why Jocketty is saying what he's saying. Doesn't make me feel any less dirty for hearing the shill speak. Right now, both he and Castellini are doing their best P.T. Barnum impersonations.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
We better hope that our defense and pitching is the best in baseball, b/c that's the only way we'll put a dent in that 170 runs, b/c we certainly won't put a dent in the difference with our offense (or lack thereof).
Dickerson better than Dunn defensively in LF is a no-brainer.
Gomes or Hairston? I'm not that convinced. Heck, Gomes might be worse defensively, and Hairston's a statue at any position on the field...
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