Dusty Baker continues to confuse me

[dougdirt]

From John Fay:
Jay Bruce leading off? Jay Bruce hitting fourth?

Dusty Baker talked about both possibilities this morning.

Snip

“I’d rather not have two lefties in a row,” Baker said. “Unless you have lefties like (Ryan) Howard and (Chase) Utley who don’t have as much trouble hitting lefties. If you’re learning to hit lefties, they can bring in one lefty to take care of two guys. I’d rather split them up. Eventually they might. Jay is getting better at hitting lefties.

Ryan Howard vs LHP in 2010: .264/.333/.492
Jay Bruce vs LHP in 2010: .277/.352/.547

Don't let facts get in the way of a good argument Dusty.....

He also talks about Bruce batting leadoff. Go read the article. My brain hurts.

[camisadelgolf]

Sure, it's confusing, but I love that he's at least open to the idea. The odds are probably slim to none that Bruce leads off more than a couple games throughout the season, but the way I see it, as long as he writes the correct names on the card, it shouldn't matter too much who bats where.

edit:
And Doug, you might want to be more selective about the stats you pick for your argument. One season doesn't really tell us much about platoon splits.

[_Sir_Charles_]

From John Fay:
Jay Bruce leading off? Jay Bruce hitting fourth?

Dusty Baker talked about both possibilities this morning.

Snip

“I’d rather not have two lefties in a row,” Baker said. “Unless you have lefties like (Ryan) Howard and (Chase) Utley who don’t have as much trouble hitting lefties. If you’re learning to hit lefties, they can bring in one lefty to take care of two guys. I’d rather split them up. Eventually they might. Jay is getting better at hitting lefties.

Ryan Howard vs LHP in 2010: .264/.333/.492
Jay Bruce vs LHP in 2010: .277/.352/.547

Don't let facts get in the way of a good argument Dusty.....

He also talks about Bruce batting leadoff. Go read the article. My brain hurts.

To be fair to Dusty, I think he's referring to Bruce not having much of a track record of success against lefties. One season does not a career make. Yes he made considerable improvement this past year, but Dusty probably wants to see it sustained over multiple years.

Plain and simple, I don't think anybody will ever be satisfied by his lineups, but if that's Dusty's biggest flaw...I can certainly live with it.

[dougdirt]

Jay Bruce is 23 years old. What he did last season is incredibly more valuable than what he did anytime before that.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Jay Bruce is 23 years old. What he did last season is incredibly more valuable than what he did anytime before that.

I agree with you...I was just pointing out what I though Dusty's thought process might be here. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing Jay lead off.

[Griffey012]

There is a difference between being able to hit the left handed starting pitcher and being able to hit the lefty specialist that comes out of the bullpen that tends to dominate lefties. That is a stat that is hard to generate numbers for because of the small sample size, but that could be what he is trying to justify.

The dumb quote was about the whats more important, OBP or a 1-0 lead? Aren't those correlated.

[Chip R]

Is he moving Jay to CF?

[Griffey012]

Jay Bruce is 23 years old. What he did last season is incredibly more valuable than what he did anytime before that.

What about Justin Upton? He is 23. Does the standard still hold true?

[Chip R]

There is a difference between being able to hit the left handed starting pitcher and being able to hit the lefty specialist that comes out of the bullpen that tends to dominate lefties. That is a stat that is hard to generate numbers for because of the small sample size, but that could be what he is trying to justify.

That depends on which lefty you're talking about. If that lefty starter is Cliff Lee.... We have to also remember that Jay hit that division clinching
HR off a lefty specialist who was pretty stingy against lefties. I just like to see Dusty thinking outside the box.

[Orenda]

what is the logical argument for splitting up lefties anyway? I assumed it was a faux argument made by managers to shield themselves from second guessing. Bruce hitting leadoff wouldn't be a bad idea if the reds had more pop behind him, but imo he needs to be hitting in the middle of the lineup with their current roster.

[dougdirt]

What about Justin Upton? He is 23. Does the standard still hold true?

Yes. Upton did most things similar last year as he did prior, except for the power. Given where scouts see his power, I would guess its more of an outlier than a trend. But, I would have to look more in depth at it all and don't really have the time to do so right now.

[dougdirt]

what is the logical argument for splitting up lefties anyway? I assumed it was a faux argument made by managers to shield themselves from second guessing. Bruce hitting leadoff wouldn't be a bad idea if the reds had more pop behind him, but imo he needs to be hitting in the middle of the lineup with their current roster.

That you don't get killed in the 9th inning by a lefty reliever. Because those 2 at bats in that inning are apparently much more important than the 6-10 they will have in innings 1-8.

[edabbs44]

That you don't get killed in the 9th inning by a lefty reliever. Because those 2 at bats in that inning are apparently much more important than the 6-10 they will have in innings 1-8.

The 9th isn't the only inning that you may get killed by that lefty specialist. The thought process is in those high leverage ABs towards the end of the game.

[Griffey012]

That depends on which lefty you're talking about. If that lefty starter is Cliff Lee.... We have to also remember that Jay hit that division clinching
HR off a lefty specialist who was pretty stingy against lefties. I just like to see Dusty thinking outside the box.

Lee has been pretty even over his career and of late against lefties and righties, but I understand the point you are making. I was just trying to point out that even though Bruce and Howards numbers against lefties are similar, and Bruce did rock Byrdak for the clinching home run, it could be true that Bruce struggles mightily against the side arming slider type lefty specialists more so than other and Votto may as well. The problem is that is something very difficult to quantify and has to be judged more so with the eye than numbers. It could also be true that the opposite holds, i really have no idea.

As Doug pointed out, that 1 AB is pretty irrelevant compared to the other 6-10 in between. But at the same time is it always helpful to put your opponent at a disadvantage late in the game. I just felt like tossing the devil's advocate out there for discussion.

[Brutus]

From John Fay:
Jay Bruce leading off? Jay Bruce hitting fourth?

Dusty Baker talked about both possibilities this morning.

Snip

“I’d rather not have two lefties in a row,” Baker said. “Unless you have lefties like (Ryan) Howard and (Chase) Utley who don’t have as much trouble hitting lefties. If you’re learning to hit lefties, they can bring in one lefty to take care of two guys. I’d rather split them up. Eventually they might. Jay is getting better at hitting lefties.

Ryan Howard vs LHP in 2010: .264/.333/.492
Jay Bruce vs LHP in 2010: .277/.352/.547

Don't let facts get in the way of a good argument Dusty.....

He also talks about Bruce batting leadoff. Go read the article. My brain hurts.

Bruce did have a nice season this year against lefties, but it was a sample of 180 plate appearances. Prior to that, he had a .642 and .543 OPS against lefties in 2009 and 2008. His 3-year OPS is .719. Still work to be done.

Dusty did add that he's still learning to hit lefties. I think that's a fair assessment.