http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...in-baseball-2/
Here is a cool article about Pagan. I would really be for the Reds making a run for him in the off-season.
By the way, I know Billy Hamilton is knocking at the door, but if he does prove that he can play centerfield at a high level and hit at the AAA level consistently, Pagan would still be a valuable trade piece when Billy is ready.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Crisp would be an upgrade, no doubt.
I just have a hard time trading talent for him, and paying 7 million/year.
The budget is probably getting kind of tight.
I'd rather spend the money on a LF or 3b solution (Frasier filling the other slot).
Or perhaps even spend the money on pitching.
It does make sense to upgrade CF, but not at any cost.. Heisey/Stubbs is not the production we want, but they are still inexpensive, which provides value.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
2012
Chris Heisey (.315/.401/.715; .313 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.325/.418/.742; .324 wOBA)
Career
Chris Heisey (.315/.438/.753; .327 wOBA)
Coco Crisp (.329/.407/.736; .322 wOBA)
Seems like some doubt to me. Crisp gets the benefit of having played in a pitcher's park, but Heisey is also five years younger. So I don't think it's so obvious that it's an upgrade, if it's even one at all. And again, factor-in the money and it seems like a pointless move.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Crisp actually had a .806 OPS at home in the pitchers' park, and a .667 OPS on the road. It wasn't a fluke either as his home OPS has been much higher than his road OPS all three of his years in Oakland. I think his performance would be negatively affected by coming to the small outfield in Cincinnati.
Some players actually hit better in pitchers' parks. Usually the reason a park is considered a pitchers' park is because it has a vast outfield that suppresses home runs. A vast outfield where the outfielders have to play very deep can actually be a huge advantage for slap hitters like Coco Crisp because he is not going to hit home runs anyway.
Like Brutus, I have mixed feelings about Coco Crisp. He could be a slight upgrade from Heisey and Stubbs, but given what it would cost the Reds in prospects and money to acquire him he might not be worth it. I think the Reds can do better elsewhere.
I have been a big proponent of Gerardo Parra in the past. It seems less likely than ever the DBacks will trade him now that they have already dealt away Chris Young.
I would be thrilled if the Reds snagged Justin Upton somehow, although he would be very expensive. Dexter Fowler would be a solid upgrade. DeJesus or Span seem more likely, but are less enticing. If the Reds settle for Eric Young or Juan Pierre I will be upset. BJ Upton is another potential addition, but I don't like his game and his cost would greatly outweigh his value in my opinion.
If Billy Hamilton starts off the year in AAA with his OBP over .400 for a couple months while Stubbs/Heisey continue to underwhelm, I would bring up Hamilton and live with his rookie ups and downs. I don't even care too much about the stolen bases, it is Hamilton's OBP I am drooling over.
Using Heisey with his .315 OBP as the starter in CF is a good way to avoid offensive improvement on the Reds.
The team finished 12th in NL OBP with .315. If you are replacing a starting player, you probably ought to look at someone who can boost the .315 OBP. Not Heisey.
My problem with Crisp as the full time CFer is that he provides only a small OBP boost. If used as a platoon guy against RHP, however, he adds more. His lifetime OBP v. RHP is .333, last year .337.
I doubt the Reds would acquire Crisp for $7 million to platoon. So he probably isn't the one for the team this off-season.
Still, Stubbs was the worst hitter in baseball against RHP, so I think Heisey would be a decent upgrade if that's what they do until Hamilton is ready. Not my favorite idea, but at least Stubbs isn't sinking the boat. I'd like a strict platoon with Stubbs only vs LHP, but I just don't see it occurring that way, so I'd just as soon see him shipped out. If they got a CF they liked and was the clear starter, probably like a Coco Crisp, then perhaps Stubbs would see that beneficial platoon, but who knows.
Going into the season with Heisey or Stubbs in CF is a losing proposition. The Reds need to make a move in order to improve CF and I don't think Heisey is the answer. I think/hope that Drew Stubbs has taken his last swings with a Red and they move on. If they don't bring Ludwick back I would like to see a Pagan or Victorino brought in to play CF on a 1-3 year deal. The Reds could move either of those players to LF when/if Hamilton comes up.
The Reds are built to contend for a WS over the next number of years. Standing put like they did in 2011 would be an utter failure. They need to make a move, need to improve the leadoff spot. They need to get production out of CF. The Reds attendance should see a boost coming off of a playoff run. The FO needs to step up and keep building on 2012.
I hear you.. when I heard about the contract Crisp got from Oakland, I'm glad we didn't sign him at that price.
I'm certainly not excited about giving up a prospect to take on that contract now.
Really, unless it's a clear impact upgrade, I don't want to blow a bunch of money on CF, especially with Billy Ham on the horizon.
Getting a LF or 3b is a higher priority for me.. If need be, we can do Stubbs/Heisey until Billy Ham is ready (even if he's not ready until 2014)
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
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