So Hamilton is electric

[mth123]

Some of these rationales for giving Cozart a pass on his OB are kind of weak.

I'd easily trade Cozart's two or three doubles and one homer a month for Hamilton's speed every day.

Say what you will, but the offensive requirements to stay in the line-up in CF are higher than at SS.

Pos/Cat	        SS	CF
Qualifiers	16	15
OPS > .800	1	4
OPS > .750	4	9
OPS > .700	6	14
OPS > .675	9	14

[Old school 1983]

In CF there are stopgaps available who could do a lot better than that. SS, not so much.

Cozart, BTW, adds extra base hits to the mix. Hamilton will need to get on base and then give the defense a second chance to get him out to get to second.

And Hamilton being on first could act like a big enough distraction that the pitcher leaves a fastball over the middle to Phillips votto Bruce etc and they deposit it for a homer or a double and an easy score. Right now the reds don't have anyone else that draws that kind of attention. May make up for hamiltons own lack of power. Speed just does so many intangible things. I'd rather let billy have center and taking the money that'd go to a stopgap and invest it in a better right handed hitter at third or left that could be around for a few years than a stopgap centerfielder who will more than likely be replaced by Hamilton anyway.

[mth123]

And Hamilton being on first could act like a big enough distraction that the pitcher leaves a fastball over the middle to Phillips votto Bruce etc and they deposit it for a homer or a double and an easy score. Right now the reds don't have anyone else that draws that kind of attention. May make up for hamiltons own lack of power. Speed just does so many intangible things. I'd rather let billy have center and taking the money that'd go to a stopgap and invest it in a better right handed hitter at third or left that could be around for a few years than a stopgap centerfielder who will more than likely be replaced by Hamilton anyway.

Heard that same thing about Willy Taveras. He didn't get on first enough for it to matter though.

[Old school 1983]

Say what you will, but the offensive requirements to stay in the line-up in CF are higher than at SS.

Pos/Cat	        SS	CF
Qualifiers	16	15
OPS > .800	1	4
OPS > .750	4	9
OPS > .700	6	14
OPS > .675	9	14

Sure I want Hamilton to increase his on base percentage but his speed and stolen base ability offer so many intangibles that go far beyond his own personal ops.

[Old school 1983]

Heard that same thing about Willy Taveras. He didn't get on first enough for it to matter though.

I saw taveras. I've seen Hamilton. Hamilton is way above his level. If I recall correctly taveras was a pretty decent spark at lead off for an Astros team that went to the WS. Granted their pitching was solid, he sparked the offense quite a bit.

[mth123]

Out of the question-no. Unlikely without a increase in the 106 million budget yes.

We have 79 million in contracts for 2014, neither Choo nor Arroyo is included in that total. That leaves 26 million for arbitration and any other contracts. I'm assuming it'll take 13 million for both Bailey and Leake-Bailey 8, Leake 5. Hanigan would get 3 million minimum. That would leave about 10 million for other needs, and I don't think 10 will be enough for Choo.

Don't forget Chapman. His $3 Million salary converts to a bonus and he goes to arb as well. Counting the $3 Million, he'll probably be a $10 Million+ cost. Heisey and Lecure are arb eligible as well and they will get raises too. That $10 Million is gone and the team will need an increase from the $106 to bring everybody back w/o the free agents. I could see this team going to $120 Million next year, but it still won't be enough to do much more than a couple stopgaps. Not enough for Choo unless a pitcher or two get moved.

[mth123]

Sure I want Hamilton to increase his on base percentage but his speed and stolen base ability offer so many intangibles that go far beyond his own personal ops.

The point is that there are stop gaps available who can produce more than Hamilton will while Hamilton finishes cooking in AAA. SS simply doesn't have that pool of players available which is why living with Cozart is OK, but living with Hamilton would be like punting.

If Hamilton was still a SS, I'd be all for having him compete with Cozart or split time with him until he wins the job outright, but he just didn't have what it takes to stick there. In CF, the bar is higher and he's not there yet IMO.

[Old school 1983]

The point is that there are stop gaps available who can produce more than Hamilton will while Hamilton finishes cooking in AAA. SS simply doesn't have that pool of players available which is why living with Cozart is OK, but living with Hamilton would be like punting.

If Hamilton was still a SS, I'd be all for having him compete with Cozart or split time with him until he wins the job outright, but he just didn't have what it takes to stick there. In CF, the bar is higher and he's not there yet IMO.

I agree with the cozart part of your assessment 100%. I'd rather see the money that'd go to a CF stop gap go towards a better/younger solid right handed bat with a little but of control elsewhere in the lineup. With Hamilton, the reds have a solution for CF and lead off in the immediate future. Investing in a solid righty bat for elsewhere would make up for choos ops and with ludwick in the lineup and a more seasoned mesoraco, I think the lineup may actually be better than what's been ran out for most of this year. Do I think Hamilton is a finished product? Not at all. But do I think he'd be at least serviceable in the majors and bring some serious intangibles when he does get on? Yes. Do I believe the reds would be better off investing in a right handed bat somewhere else and taking their lumps with hamiltons obp? Yes I do.

[mth123]

I agree with the cozart part of your assessment 100%. I'd rather see the money that'd go to a CF stop gap go towards a better/younger solid right handed bat with a little but of control elsewhere in the lineup. With Hamilton, the reds have a solution for CF and lead off in the immediate future. Investing in a solid righty bat for elsewhere would make up for choos ops and with ludwick in the lineup and a more seasoned mesoraco, I think the lineup may actually be better than what's been ran out for most of this year. Do I think Hamilton is a finished product? Not at all. But do I think he'd be at least serviceable in the majors and bring some serious intangibles when he does get on? Yes. Do I believe the reds would be better off investing in a right handed bat somewhere else and taking their lumps with hamiltons obp? Yes I do.

So where would that RH bat play if Hamilton is in CF and Ludwick in LF? We know that Votto, Phillips and Bruce are locks. That leaves SS, 3B and C as a place to find offense. I doubt you'll find an upgrade to Frazier without it costing a lot more than a CF stopgap would. Upgrading from Cozart is easier based on the starting point, but the pool of players just isn't out there. Maybe Catcher, but Mesoraco was as highly rated prospect as Hamilton is (actually higher since Hamilton has had the rankings drop that Mesoraco didn't experience) and we see how he hasn't really done that much. A LH hitting CF platoon guy to split time with Heisey until Hamilton is ready and to assume Paul's role once Hamilton arrives seems like the best possible solution given the budget and the players available.

The one exception I'd make is if someone like Bailey or Chapman could be dealt for a top prospect to play SS or 3B, but they would need to bring a highly regarded arm back as well to make it something other than robbing Peter to pay Paul IMO.

[Old school 1983]

So where would that RH bat play if Hamilton is in CF and Ludwick in LF? We know that Votto, Phillips and Bruce are locks. That leaves SS, 3B and C as a place to find offense. I doubt you'll find an upgrade to Frazier without it costing a lot more than a CF stopgap would. Upgrading from Cozart is easier based on the starting point, but the pool of players just isn't out there. Maybe Catcher, but Mesoraco was as highly rated prospect as Hamilton is (actually higher since Hamilton has had the rankings drop that Mesoraco didn't experience) and we see how he hasn't really done that much. A LH hitting CF platoon guy to split time with Heisey until Hamilton is ready and to assume Paul's role once Hamilton arrives seems like the best possible solution given the budget and the players available.

The one exception I'd make is if someone like Bailey or Chapman could be dealt for a top prospect to play SS or 3B, but they would need to bring a highly regarded arm back as well to make it something other than robbing Peter to pay Paul IMO.

IMO Frazier isn't that hard to replace. I'd more than likely go there unless you can get a stud quality outfielder to play left. But I'd trade a pitcher for a thirdbaseman. Probably bailey or cueto depending on if you can get bailey to resign. At that point you'd either have to resign Bronson, or take a risk and start Stephenson in the bigs next year.

Idk but a rotation of latos bailey cingrani leake and Stephenson doesn't sound too bad to me. Even if you didn't want to go Stephenson move chapman to the rotation or explore outside options.

Preferably cueto is the guy for me to move if you can extend homer. He's a number one but I think he's maxed out while bailey and latos are improving.

[Falls City Beer]

In the post roid era, I can't count too many .725 OPS third basemen who play gold glove defense.

[Old school 1983]

In the post roid era, I can't count too many .725 OPS third basemen who play gold glove defense.

Frazier has proven to be better a D than anticipated but gold glove? Not imo. He's hitting 230 something. It's September. When he's cold he's an easy out. Very very easy. More to the game than ops. He's a great supersub. Great guy to have on the team but let's not delude ourselves. He's hacktasic at the plate and plays average to above average D. Not gold glove.

[Falls City Beer]

Frazier has proven to be better a D than anticipated but gold glove? Not imo. He's hitting 230 something. It's September. When he's cold he's an easy out. Very very easy. More to the game than ops. He's a great supersub. Great guy to have on the team but let's not delude ourselves. He's hacktasic at the plate and plays average to above average D. Not gold glove.

Draw me up a list of better. What are we talking about? Three or four guys?

[Old school 1983]

I know you're just going to judge by ops not overall potential and age so idk...

Beltre
Machado
Middlebrooks
Freese
Headley
Sandoval
Cabrerra
Longoria
Should I continue?

He's our least productive starter per position.

Juan uribe has comparable numbers offensively. Michael young has a way more disciplined bat. The dude is a great clubhouse guy. Great as a supersub when you can pick your spots for him like last year, but as our starters go he'd be the easiest to replace with an upgrade.

[Falls City Beer]

I know you're just going to judge by ops not overall potential and age so idk...

Beltre
Machado
Middlebrooks
Freese
Headley
Sandoval
Cabrerra
Longoria
Should I continue?

He's our least productive starter per position.

Freese, Sandoval, and Headley? Um, no, they are defensive statues. Machado, maybe. The other guys, sure, but they cost a trillion bucks, not what I'd call an easy replacement. Catcher and short are much easier upgrades. The Reds gave away a better overall SS in Gregorius just this offseason.