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Thread: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

  1. #16
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    I think you also went safe on Harang. If he's completely healthy, a return to 200+ K's is not out of the question.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.


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  3. #17
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    176 strikeouts for Dickerson?
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  4. #18
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    176 strikeouts for Dickerson?
    Wow. I didn't catch that. He'll get booed mercilessly....by fans and the booth.

  5. #19
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Wow. I didn't catch that. He'll get booed mercilessly....by fans and the booth.

    Indeed. However, 176 Ks is quite a lot from a leadoff hitter.
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  6. #20
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Indeed. However, 176 Ks is quite a lot from a leadoff hitter.
    I doubt Dusty would leave him there all year if he struck out that much.

  7. #21
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    I'll throw this out as a possibility.

    Ramon Ramirez - 140 IP 4.30- 4.50 era 115 K's

    He had good peripherals in his 4 starts and one relief appearance which went 3 innings. He faced a playoff bound Milwaukee team twice in a week and beat them once, got a ND in which the Reds eventually won in another. Seems to have great poise.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

  8. #22
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Indeed. However, 176 Ks is quite a lot from a leadoff hitter.
    This is a sentiment I've never understood. The leadoff hitter is going to come to the plate with the fewest men on base. That would suggest that there's the least value in merely putting the ball in play compared to other spots in the lineup. And since strikeouts also correlate with seeing more pitches, it would seem like it might not be a bad thing all.

    If there's anybody in my lineup who strikes out a ton, let it be the leadoff guy.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I doubt Dusty would leave him there all year if he struck out that much.

    Unless he became engaged to Dusty's daughter.
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  10. #24
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    I'll throw this out as a possibility.

    Ramon Ramirez - 140 IP 4.30- 4.50 era 115 K's

    He had good peripherals in his 4 starts and one relief appearance which went 3 innings. He faced a playoff bound Milwaukee team twice in a week and beat them once, got a ND in which the Reds eventually won in another. Seems to have great poise.
    Absolutely. Unless Ramirez loses the touch on his changeup, he should be starting for some major league team next year (i.e., I wouldn't be surprised if teams see how willing the Reds would be to deal him). Like Dickerson, he showed very well in his time with the Reds last year -- no clunkers, able to pitch out of jams, athletic in the field and at the plate, unafraid. I like him a lot.

  11. #25
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bronson Arroyo - 205 IP, 4.20-4.35 ERA, 160 K
    Johnny Cueto - 180 IP, 4.40 ERA, 175 K
    Aaron Harang - 210 IP, 3.85 ERA, 180 K
    Edinson Volquez -200 IP, 2.75-3.20 ERA, 215 K

    That's along the lines of what I expect from our four rotation locks. That's assuming the Reds improve their defense. I went with a safe projection on Cueto, I think he could do much better than that but he's still young and inexperienced and will battle some ups and downs.
    Looks like James and his projection is indicating that it might be a good time to trade Harang and Arroyo and their growing contracts for the missing pieces and additional pitching. If he is right, the contracts for those two won't be very attractive in 2010.

    I wonder if Jocketty and his staff have Arroyo and Harang projecting to do about the same next year?

    Maybe James factored in the manager and pitching coach when it came to Cueto?

  12. #26
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    There's no way I would trade Harang unless the Reds receive a huge return. Besides, these are only projections. I fully expect Harang to return to his 2005-2007 form.

  13. #27
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    There's no way I would trade Harang unless the Reds receive a huge return. Besides, these are only projections. I fully expect Harang to return to his 2005-2007 form.
    I think Harang will win the Cy Young next year.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Seems like we should trade BP if we can get somebody else to overvalue him.

  15. #29
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Wow. James thinks Dickerson is going to go wild! If that's true, the Reds definitely have their CF situation solved. Not a bad sophomore season for Bruce and Votto either.
    James has a crush on him for some reason. Then again he thought Bruce would OPS 1.800 last season too...
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #30
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    James has a crush on him for some reason. Then again he thought Bruce would OPS 1.800 last season too...
    I dunno. With Bruce, there were at least some statistical trends in the minors to back up the exaggerated prediction. I'd like to see an explanation for why Dickerson is a 20-30 player with over an .800 OPS next year. I don't think there is much precedent to suggest that would ever happen. James is frankly making CD out to be the second coming of a healthy Eric Davis and, while I wouldn't mind that in the least, I just don't see it happening in this world.
    “Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC


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