Chapman headed back to the bullpen?

[RollyInRaleigh]

Keep in mind that Aroldis won't be throwing 105 MPH as a starter. He'll likely settle in between 95-99MPH. Big league hitters can time that. Changing speeds is huge to successful pitching

Really agree with you, here. Chapman's fastball is really straight and flat, and at the lower speed, that is dangerous. His slider is a really good pitch, and he throws it really hard, but I'm afraid that it will be in nearly the same neighborhood as his fastball, as a starter. He really is going to need a quality third pitch to be effective as a starting pitcher, and I don't know if he has anything close to that right now. I am still not sold on Chapman as a starter. I hope it works out.

[_Sir_Charles_]

If not Chapman as that 5th guy, then who? Francis? He didn't help his cause any yesterday vs Texas, and the Reds have to make a decision on him by Wednesday as far as the 25 man roster goes. Looking at him career-wise I'm not that impressed. And then there's pitching at GABP. Bailey, who also has not had a stellar ST, is also out of options. They aren't going to give up on him just yet. At least not for the likes of a Francis.

IMO, Chapman, looking at his performance this Spring, has earned that spot and opportunity. This is a 24 yr old kid with great potential. I still go with Chapman in the rotation. It's not like it's written in stone either. If need be, he can be moved back into the BP. But he has definitely earned his shot.

IMO, the rotation is exactly what we thought it was going INTO spring training. Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Leake & Bailey. End of story. Chapman AAA starting, Francis AAA starting if he accepts it, LeCure emergency starter with Cincy. Madson shouldn't change ANY of that. Key word being "shouldn't".

I'd leave Chapman in Louisville all season long as long as the starting 5 stay healthy. If there's an injury...get on the phone and get him up there.

[Caveat Emperor]

A starter with two very good pitches is always better than a starter with three or four mediocre pitches. You make it sound axiomatic that a third pitch is a necessity for a starter, sort of like "pitchers under 6 feet tall will have short careers." Methinks you doth protest too much to be taken seriously and sound like you're dogging a guy instead of providing a realistic critical analysis of his value.

I'm not "dogging" Chapman -- I'm providing my assessment of his value and his role on the team. People are penciling him in as a starter when he lacks the basic tools required to be a successful starter: command of his fastball and a third pitch to throw. I'm not suggesting It's impossible for him to ever develop these tools, but I think it's unrealistic to just assume his command will develop and a third pitch will appear in his arsenal without a significant amount of refinement.

[Kc61]

I'd leave Chapman in Louisville all season long as long as the starting 5 stay healthy. If there's an injury...get on the phone and get him up there.

So in other words, it's vital for Chapman to develop in the minor leagues, but if there's an injury in the rotation on April 10 he then belongs in the major leagues. Ok, got it.

Frankly, I think there may be an injury right now. Homer Bailey has a 7.98 ERA this spring. He's allowed 20 hits, 13 earned runs, and 4 homers in 14.2 innings. He has 6 Ks. The opposition is hitting .364 BA against him. He has a history of injury.

If Homer doesn't do better next time out, I'd have some medical people take a look at him.

If, as I suspect, Homer isn't quite right, then suddenly Chapman may seem readier.

[traderumor]

I'm not "dogging" Chapman -- I'm providing my assessment of his value and his role on the team. People are penciling him in as a starter when he lacks the basic tools required to be a successful starter: command of his fastball and a third pitch to throw. I'm not suggesting It's impossible for him to ever develop these tools, but I think it's unrealistic to just assume his command will develop and a third pitch will appear in his arsenal without a significant amount of refinement.

He's an extreme power pitcher, so "command" is relative with him. From what I've read, you are basing his lack of command on the short-term loss of control last season rather than the entire body of work. A third pitch is a luxury, not a necessity. Maybe its the thing that takes him from young developing pitcher to ace, but I think giving him a shot in the 5th slot is actually at an acceptable risk level at this point in his development and in consideration of the team's state.

[traderumor]

So in other words, it's vital for Chapman to develop in the minor leagues, but if there's an injury in the rotation on April 10 he then belongs in the major leagues. Ok, got it.

Frankly, I think there may be an injury right now. Homer Bailey has a 7.98 ERA this spring. He's allowed 20 hits, 13 earned runs, and 4 homers in 14.2 innings. He has 6 Ks. The opposition is hitting .364 BA against him. He has a history of injury.

If Homer doesn't do better next time out, I'd have some medical people take a look at him.

If, as I suspect, Homer isn't quite right, then suddenly Chapman may seem readier.

I think Homer may just not be an answer. Hide him in the bullpen during April, let some things shake out, then try to trade him in for a new model. Who knows, maybe we'll stumble on to a Matt Belisle type who turns out to be an effective 3-6 out righty in the pen. I'd take that at this point considering the Madson situation.

[Plus Plus]

1. Justin Verlander has a better fastball than Aroldis Chapman does (as a starter, he throws it just as hard or harder and he can throw it for strikes in any count). His curveball is just as good as the slider from Chapman. Yet he also throws a plus change up and an above average slider. Even guys with two plus pitches as starters, tend to throw third pitches often. Yes, there are a handful of exceptions in history who didn't. That doesn't mean we should count on Chapman joining their ranks.

Comparing Chapman to (arguably) the best pitcher in baseball right now might be a little much right now. My question would be: if Chapman only has a fastball and slider right now, and potentially develops either an average or slightly below third pitch or a "show me" pitch as some have described, could he still be an above-average starter?

[Caveat Emperor]

He's an extreme power pitcher, so "command" is relative with him. From what I've read, you are basing his lack of command on the short-term loss of control last season rather than the entire body of work. A third pitch is a luxury, not a necessity. Maybe its the thing that takes him from young developing pitcher to ace, but I think giving him a shot in the 5th slot is actually at an acceptable risk level at this point in his development and in consideration of the team's state.

A "short term loss of control" as a reliever requires you to go put in another reliever. A "short term loss of control" as a starter requires you to burn through your bullpen for a night.

Until there's some confidence that his command won't completely desert him for stretches of time, I don't see how you can send him out to start. It's foolhardy to ignore the past until you're confident it isn't likely to repeat itself.

[traderumor]

A "short term loss of control" as a reliever requires you to go put in another reliever. A "short term loss of control" as a starter requires you to burn through your bullpen for a night.

Until there's some confidence that his command won't completely desert him for stretches of time, I don't see how you can send him out to start. It's foolhardy to ignore the past until you're confident it isn't likely to repeat itself.

He returned last year and still had some control bumps, but does not appear to be an Ankiel. If he gets the 5th starter post, he'll likely be one of the best 5th starters in the league. I understand your skepticism/pessimism, I just think that your recommended approach is being overly cautious, overly risk averse.

[GoReds]

The Rays are moving Wade Davis, who has never relieved, to the bullpen to make way for Matt Moore. Davis' pitching stats are not far removed from Homer's.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...ds-to-bullpen/

[Nasty_Boy]

Comparing Chapman to (arguably) the best pitcher in baseball right now might be a little much right now. My question would be: if Chapman only has a fastball and slider right now, and potentially develops either an average or slightly below third pitch or a "show me" pitch as some have described, could he still be an above-average starter?

It looks to me as if Doug is contrasting but not comparing the two... But as for your question, I'd say with 2 plus-plus pitches that he could be a well above average starter. His fastball (when located) is the best in the game and the slider couldn't have too many others in the conversation.

[Roy Tucker]

When Chapman closes, he cuts loose. When he cuts loose he gets wild. When he gets wild he ends up at Charlie Sheen's house. We don't want him at Charlie Sheen's house.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I've not seen him close many games, Roy.

[OnBaseMachine]

When Chapman closes, he cuts loose. When he cuts loose he gets wild. When he gets wild he ends up at Charlie Sheen's house. We don't want him at Charlie Sheen's house.

Well played, Roy. I laughed.

[_Sir_Charles_]

So in other words, it's vital for Chapman to develop in the minor leagues, but if there's an injury in the rotation on April 10 he then belongs in the major leagues. Ok, got it.

Frankly, I think there may be an injury right now. Homer Bailey has a 7.98 ERA this spring. He's allowed 20 hits, 13 earned runs, and 4 homers in 14.2 innings. He has 6 Ks. The opposition is hitting .364 BA against him. He has a history of injury.

If Homer doesn't do better next time out, I'd have some medical people take a look at him.

If, as I suspect, Homer isn't quite right, then suddenly Chapman may seem readier.

No, I don't think it's "VITAL" that Chapman stay at Louisville all year. I'm saying that he needs seasoning as a starter, and if the rotation is healthy, then give him as much time as you can. If that means nearly all season, so be it. But he's the first callup and 6th starter IMO.

As for Homer, don't forget he was asked to put on something like 15-20 lbs this off season. He may just be adapting to it. But then again, we're talking about ST stats...I've never taken them very seriously. I'd rather look at his career stats. And in regards to those, he's improved each year. His K/BB peripherals look solid. I'm not concerned at ALL with Homer. In truth, I see big things from him this season. BIG things.