The exact quote was:
""I've had a chance to watch a lot of good managers. We have to use statistical analysis to understand parts of the game, but you have to understand what kind of talent the team has.""
The exact quote was:
""I've had a chance to watch a lot of good managers. We have to use statistical analysis to understand parts of the game, but you have to understand what kind of talent the team has.""
redsmetz (10-23-2013)
Just in case anyone missed it you can watch the full press conference here:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ss-conference/
I just watched a couple clips...and now I think that there is probably no way the Braves would include him, unless the Reds sent more than Phillips.
Nasty stuff. The delivery is definitely funky but I think it contributes.
Phillips and Marshall for Uggla, Wood and a suspect. Think of the karmic balance of a second Wood/Marshall trade.
Last edited by malcontent; 10-23-2013 at 01:37 PM.
Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi
There is some truth to this - in virtually every market. The idea that Cincinnati is somehow unique on this front continues to make me laugh. Perhaps Cinci is a bit different being a two sport town with an intense focus and local passion on the Reds. On second thought, the banana phone contingent may be unique...
Votto has the 4th largest contract in pro sports history in one of the smallest markets. Fame doesn't come without expectations and controversy some fair most unfair.
I think Price will be terrific for Votto. Hopefully he'll set the record straight with some of the media blowhards that don't get the value of Votto's offensive production. I don't think Baker helped Joey out much at all - in fact I'd say his comments only added fuel to the fire.
I'm actually pretty shocked by the comments that have been said/not said with regard to the dismissal of Baker (seemed to be no surprise to the players) and the hiring and ringing endorsements of Price before and after the hire. Price continues to be positioned as the anti-Baker.
It's almost like the other 5 hitters in the lineup matter too.
I think as sports fans our expectations have been affected by football and basketball. In both of those sports, the most critical element of strategy is the distribution of opportunities. And because opportunities can be distributed at will, it allows for superstar players to have outsized impact. In baseball, opportunities are more or less fixed. Each player bats just once through the lineup. Sure, because of the length of the season, individual players can differentiate themselves to a superstar level. But within a given game, no one player can make the difference.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-23-2013 at 01:30 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Again, you are not answering my question.
I said a big part of the stat philosphy was ordering the lineup by OBP, with OPS in the 3rd and 4th slot and you basically said I was wrong.
Thus, I am asking you to explain how the stat philosphy of a lineup works (in your opinion).
Just saying "Don't put the worst two hitters first" is not very precise, unless you define worst. If it's purely stats based, shouldn't there be something close to a recipe that we could've applied to the Reds lineup? Or at least your opinion of how it should be done?
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
To me this is where there is a big disconnect. Joey Votto did not create that many runs, in order to create that many runs it means those runs actually came to fruition. So you can throw out "Runs Created" stats all you want, but when put into practice they are lacking.
I don't want a manager focusing on stats like RC or WAR or any of the advanced metrics that try to tell you how "valuable" a player is. That is fodder for the GM and the front office when they are making player personal decisions. I want a manager to keep the amount of information that he uses on a game to game basis minimal. Useful stuff for a game manager would be OBP, SLG, AVG in setting lineups. Also knowing range factors as well as tendencies of opposing hitters when setting the defense and then taking into consideration splits for relievers and hitters against relievers.
jimbo (10-23-2013)
Worried about Offense?
Count times on base, look at outs generate look at slugging above average
Code:CINCINNATI REDS SEASON 2013 Non P OUTS displayed only--not a sorting criteria SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria REACHED BASE RB OUTS SLG 1 Joey Votto 316 428 .090 2 Shin-Soo Choo 300 426 .062 3 Jay Bruce 229 479 .077 4 Brandon Phillips 205 483 -.005 5 Todd Frazier 188 431 .006 6 Zack Cozart 172 464 -.020 7 Devin Mesoraco 101 262 -.038 8 Xavier Paul 81 165 .001 9 Ryan Hanigan 79 189 -.139 10 Derrick Robinson 68 153 -.078 11 Chris Heisey 67 181 .015 12 Jack Hannahan 51 116 -.113 13 Ryan Ludwick 41 106 -.075 14 Cesar Izturis 36 111 -.129 T15 Corky Miller 15 27 -.001 T15 Donald Lutz 15 44 -.090 17 Billy Hamilton 9 14 .073 18 Henry Rodriguez 2 8 -.290 19 Neftali Soto 1 13 -.401
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
I would want a manager to understand the value of a hitter in the most comprehensive way possible so he can maximize his usage over the course of the season. Then, you don't start seeing your best hitter alter his approach toward the end of the season because his manager overvalues "clutch" and "BA with RISP" and RBI and has been whispering in his ear to "be a little more aggressive and less selective to drive in more of them runs." I fear that is what happened to Votto as the season wore on and the pressure to produce in a certain way (RISP clutch hits) was being communicated by his manager.
So, I think a comprehensive understanding of player value and HOW he creates his value, which is derived from a comprehensive understanding of advanced measurements, adds value to your field manager. It will allow him to relax when he needs to and let guys do their job the way they do it and to put guys in the best position to succeed more times than spitting tobacco and kicking benches in the dugout will garner the desired results.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
My preferences on #2 hitters:
1. Low DP numbers. Assuming there's some OB coming from the leadoff slot, I don't want my #2 hitter quickly converting that into two outs. I don't really care about "bat control," but I care about that.
2. OB or Power/Speed. Ideally you'd have both. Chase Headley at his peak was pretty much my ideal #2 hitter. However, assuming you can't have everything, then I want one of those two things. The OB is even better if it comes attached to power or speed, but OB is a good thing to have on its own. Sometimes it can be difficult to find OB that doesn't come attached to DPs. Joe Mauer is a case in point. This year he posted a .404 OB with only 7 DPs. That's fantastic. Last year his .416 OB came attached to 23 DPs (which would have been like knocking 37 points off his OB - making the case to hit Mauer at #1 rather than #2).
Of course, most teams don't have the luxury of multiple high OB players to choose from. So if you're sifting through sub-.350 OB options, how do you choose? That's were power/speed comes into play. A guy like Carlos Gomez may not be on as often as others, but he's got TBs in his bat and rocket fuel in his feet. He can make things happen. In a perfect world I'm hitting him 3rd (or lower) behind guys with more OB, but this isn't a perfect world. Gomez certainly would have been a better #2 hitter than Jean Segura last season.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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