Replacing the Reds' 2008 Offensive Production

[camisadelgolf]

In order for the Reds to duplicate their 2008 numbers, they have to replace about 2,600 plate appearances with a line of .242/.330/.408. In theory, that shouldn't be too difficult.

NAME		  AB   H  2B 3B HR  BB HBP SH SF IBB  AVG  OBP  SLG
Paul Bako	 299  65  11  2  6  34   1  3  1   5 .217 .299 .328
Dave Ross	 134  31   9  0  3  32   1  5  1   4 .231 .381 .366
Javier Valentin	 129  33   8  0  4  14   0  0  1   0 .256 .326 .411
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL		 562 129  28  2 13  80   2  8  3   9 .230 .322 .356

Q. Can a combination of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan put up an OPS of at least .678?

A. Yes, absolutely. Out of the catcher position, I would expect a somewhat significant improvement from the 2008 numbers. Ryan Hanigan will hopefully continue to improve, and there's a decent chance that Hernandez will improve upon his numbers from last year. Wilkin Castillo and Craig Tatum aren't great hitters, but they couldn't do much worse than Paul Bako if they were given the opportunity that Paul Bako received.

NAME		  AB   H  2B 3B HR  BB HBP SH SF IBB  AVG  OBP  SLG
Jolbert Cabrera	 115  29   6  1  3   8   2  0  1   1 .252 .310 .400
Adam Dunn	 373  87  14  0 32  74   6  0  5   6 .233 .373 .528
Corey Patterson	 366  75  17  2 10  16   1  5  4   0 .205 .238 .344
Ryan Freel	 131  39   8  0  0   8   1  2  1   0 .298 .340 .359
Ken Griffey	 359  88  20  1 15  61   2  0  3  13 .245 .355 .432
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL		1344 318  65  4 60 167  12  7 14  20 .237 .322 .425

Q. Can the Reds replace the outfielders who put up a combined .747 OPS?

A. At the moment, no, but by the end of the off season, most likely. If Norris Hopper or Laynce Nix is an opening day starter, you can go ahead and write the Reds in at fifth or sixth place in the NL Central. That's not going to happen, though. Jay Bruce and Norris Hopper should improve, and a Chris Dickerson/Norris Hopper platoon would probably OPS around .740, but the left field position is the biggest question. I don't think it's unrealistic to expect Jocketty to find an outfielder who can OPS around .800, which could potentially lead the Reds to an offensive improvement over last year. One other thing to note is that whoever they put in left field, aside from Pat Burrell, will play better defense than Dunn, so even if the new acquisition isn't putting up Dunn-like numbers, the gap won't be as large as it seems.

NAME		  AB   H  2B 3B HR  BB HBP SH SF IBB  AVG  OBP  SLG
Scott Hatteberg	  52   9   3  0  0   7   0  0  2   0 .173 .262 .231
Andy Phillips	  73  17   3  0  3   6   1  0  0   0 .233 .300 .397
Jerry Hairston	 261  85  20  2  6  23   3  8  2   0 .326 .384 .487
Juan Castro	  10   0   0  0  0   1   0  0  0   0 .000 .091 .000
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL		 396 111  26  2  9  37   4  8  4   0 .280 .339 .424

Q. Can the Reds make up for a .763 OPS from various infield and bench positions?

A. Maybe. Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion might improve on their 2008 production. Brandon Phillips will probably have similar production. As for shortstop, Jeff Keppinger probably had what will be his worst season over the next five seasons. Not only did he have a poor year offensively, he played poor defense. If Alex Gonzalez plays anything like the AGon of 2007, the Reds should see a big improvement at shortstop. All in all, the Reds probably won't be able to replace the career numbers Hairston put up. Defensively, though, the Reds need to find a way to make up for it. If Alex Gonzalez's knee prevents him from playing average defense, and if Jeff Keppinger gets significant playing time as a shortstop, the Reds will have probably downgraded their infield production from last year. However, if the Reds find a shortstop who can play average defense with a .730 OPS, which is difficult but not impossible, they will have improved from last year.


All in all, here is what the Reds need to replace to equal their production from the 2008 season:

TOTAL		  AB   H  2B 3B HR  BB HBP SH SF IBB  AVG  OBP  SLG
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL	        2302 558 119  8 82 284  18 23 21  29 .242 .330 .408

Votto, Encarnacion, and Bruce are still young and improving and will likely help bridge the gap. Hernandez taking away Bako's at-bats and Dickerson taking away Patterson's at-bats should make a huge difference. Jeff Keppinger hopefully won't be the starting shortstop, but if he is, he can't do much worse than he did in 2008 because he had some bad luck and is simply too talented. I'm not expecting much from Alex Gonzalez, but if he somehow returns to form, it will be a huge addition to the team.

If the Reds want to repeat their offensive production from 2008, it looks to me that they just need to find a decent-to-good left fielder. However, the 2008 offense was far from impressive, and if they want to win in 2009, they will need to make a big upgrade at shortstop as well.

[Highlifeman21]

Good stuff, golf shirt!

[camisadelgolf]

Replacing the offense?

Dunn and Griffey led to the Reds having about 129 RC over there 732 AB's.
Bako and Patterson led to the Reds having about 58 RC in 665 AB's.

So if the Reds get just league average (.792 OPS) for 732 AB's for LF/RF its worth ~113 RC.
Now if the Reds get just league average at C/CF to replace the 665 AB's given to Patterson and Bako then thats worth ~89 RC.

So Dunn/Griffey/Bako/Patterson was worth 129+58= 187 RC
Replacing them with just league average in 2009 is worth 113+89= 202 RC.

Losing Dunn/Griffey isn't nearly as bad as losing Bako and Patterson is good. If the Reds can wind up getting even better than league average to replace those guys (LF/RF was about .792 OPS and C/CF was about .734 OPS) then they are increasing their run differential even more.

[Scrap Irony]

This is the rux of the argument optimistic fans make, as it relates to the 09 Reds. Around the horn, then:

- Votto is likely to equal or better his 08 production, as those players who compare most closely to Votto enjoy better second seasons and better age 26 seasons.
- Phillips could be a good candidate for a bounce-back offensive season, assming he's not being put in a spot in the lineup that tries to make him something he's not. As a number six or seven hitter, he's a good bet for a 100 OPS+, as he'll probably see more fastball opportunities and be pitched around, due to his power potential and the pitcher's spot coming up. This should boost his OBP slightly and make him a more attractive hitter.
- Keppinger is perhaps the best bet to improve of anyone in major league baseball offensively. He played four months on an injured knee and, in struggling to overcome that injury, hurt the other. In 07, Keppinger posted a 125 OPS+. In early 08 (before the broken kneecap), he was hitting well over 300. Then, injury and ineffectiveness. Completely healthy, Keppinger is a good bet to hit well for a middle infielder.
- EdE is entering his age prime seasons and should show progressively more pop and patience. That will obviously impact his OPS and production.
- LF free agent (not named Taveras) should probably be expected to average an 800 OPS, thereby mitigating some of Dunn's outstanding production.
- CF was a cavern of suckitude for 300 AB or so and good the others. Assuming the CF isn't Taveras, Dickerson and a platoon partner could rightfully OPS in the 740 range.
- Bruce should improve and already came close of Junior's alleged production last season while he struggled.
- Hernandez is clearly better offensively than Bako. He should hit better in all areas. Hell, my grandma could hit better in all areas than Bako.

So, to recap:
09 Votto > 08 Votto
09 Phillips > 08 Phillips
09 Keppinger > 08 Keppinger
09 EdE > 08 EdE
Hernandez > Bako
LF FA < Dunn
CF FA > Patterson
09 Bruce > 08 Bruce/ Junior

[SteelSD]

camis, what you posted from doug is really wheel-spinning from a team-building perspective. Even at his below-average level, Griffey combined with Dunn for 96.20 RC per 650 PA last season. Replacing 650 PA with basely league average performance (see: Lewis, Fred) would result in 92.27 RC per 650 PA; a decrease of about 4 Runs offensively. It gets worse as we add more PA.

Basically, the improvement within the group you're referencing will have to come from the Bako/Patterson replacements as replacing Dunn/Griffey with league average over their PA will actually result in a Run loss offensively. And frankly, if doug's formulas are accurate, it's pure folly to go out into the market to replace 1,619 PA if all you're going to get is a Run value gain of 15 Runs. That'll deplete cash and/or prospect resources pretty quickly. It's a bad place to be because one single misstep will completely wipe out a Run Diff gain that small over that many PA.

[camisadelgolf]

camis, what you posted from doug is really wheel-spinning from a team-building perspective. Even at his below-average level, Griffey combined with Dunn for 96.20 RC per 650 PA last season. Replacing 650 PA with basely league average performance (see: Lewis, Fred) would result in 92.27 RC per 650 PA; a decrease of about 4 Runs offensively. It gets worse as we add more PA.

Basically, the improvement within the group you're referencing will have to come from the Bako/Patterson replacements as replacing Dunn/Griffey with league average over their PA will actually result in a Run loss offensively. And frankly, if doug's formulas are accurate, it's pure folly to go out into the market to replace 1,619 PA if all you're going to get is a Run value gain of 15 Runs. That'll deplete cash and/or prospect resources pretty quickly. It's a bad place to be because one single misstep will completely wipe out a Run Diff gain that small over that many PA.

1,619 PA
40% of the 1,619 PAs came from the catching position, almost all of which should be replaced by Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan. We're talking about improving over 600 PAs of .678 OPS with anywhere, realistically, from a .700 OPS to a .750 OPS. That would go a long way to replacing those four runs lost by replacing Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey with a league average player.

That's also not to mention that, as Scrap Irony pointed out, a lot of the current players on the roster should be improving. 2008 might end up being the worst year of Keppinger's career. Votto, Encarnacion, Phillips, and Bruce are all young and are expected to improve upon their 2008 numbers. Even if Keppinger doesn't have his expected comeback year, Alex Gonzalez could make a big difference toward replacing the 28% of PAs that came from the likes of Scott Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Jerry Hairston, and Juan Castro, who put up a .763 OPS all together.

The big question comes down to how the Reds replace the remaining 32% of PAs that had a .747 OPS. Jermaine Dye could do that, theoretically, pretty easily. Heck, even a smaller acquisition like Wiggy Wiggington could replace that pretty easily.

Even though the Reds lost players like Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, I just don't see how the Reds offense doesn't improve at least a little for 2009 unless they decide they want Hopper as the starting left fielder. The Reds are, as far as I can tell, just one decent player away from equaling their 2008 production, and if it's a particularly good player, I could see the Reds offense having a huge spike in production.

[SteelSD]

1,619 PA
40% of the 1,619 PAs came from the catching position, almost all of which should be replaced by Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan. We're talking about improving over 600 PAs of .678 OPS with anywhere, realistically, from a .700 OPS to a .750 OPS. That would go a long way to replacing those four runs lost by replacing Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey with a league average player.

21% of the 1,619 PA in question came from the Catching position (Bako). Not 40%.

That's also not to mention that, as Scrap Irony pointed out, a lot of the current players on the roster should be improving. 2008 might end up being the worst year of Keppinger's career. Votto, Encarnacion, Phillips, and Bruce are all young and are expected to improve upon their 2008 numbers. Even if Keppinger doesn't have his expected comeback year, Alex Gonzalez could make a big difference toward replacing the 28% of PAs that came from the likes of Scott Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Jerry Hairston, and Juan Castro, who put up a .763 OPS all together.

28% of what? Of the Reds' 6,188 PA in 2008, Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Hairston, and Castro combined for only 7.3%. There aren't any major gains likely to come from a sample that small. Secondly, any plan that involves absolutely everything going right is an exceptionally flawed plan. The Reds can't sit on their hands hoping that everything goes right for every player on their current roster while fishing for mediocrity in the FA or trade market. They need to chew away huge chunks of Run Diff with every single move. Anything else is most likely to result in a repeat of last year...and the year before...and...well, we know.

The big question comes down to how the Reds replace the remaining 32% of PAs that had a .747 OPS. Jermaine Dye could do that, theoretically, pretty easily. Heck, even a smaller acquisition like Wiggy Wiggington could replace that pretty easily.

32% of what?

Even though the Reds lost players like Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, I just don't see how the Reds offense doesn't improve at least a little for 2009 unless they decide they want Hopper as the starting left fielder. The Reds are, as far as I can tell, just one decent player away from equaling their 2008 production, and if it's a particularly good player, I could see the Reds offense having a huge spike in production.

If the Reds equal their 2008 offensive production, then get ready for yet another losing season. And if you think the addition of one good player gets the Reds back to a bad offense, that tells us a lot about what the Reds need to produce a good offensive season, doesn't it?

[Highlifeman21]

Based on my quick analysis of camis' math, out of that total 2302 AB (2677 PA), 1344 of those total AB came from the OF (1564 PA). So we're looking at 58% of both the AB and the PA.

That's kind of a big chunk.

We've addressed the C situation by replacing what Ross and Bako (and Chip's beloved Javy Valentin) produced with Ramon Hernandez.

What we haven't addressed is an everyday LF, and a 4th OF. I'm not convinced Nix is, or should be our 4th OF. What I do know is that Norris Hopper isn't and shouldn't be our 4th OF.

Like I said in another thread, we can't hope that our offense will be ready to go for 2009 even if we were to add Pat the Bat (I used Dunn as the example in the other thread, but everyone knows how I feel about him by now). For this offense to get noticeably better, we'd have to add 2 Pat the Bats.

... and that ain't happenin'...

[camisadelgolf]

21% of the 1,619 PA in question came from the Catching position (Bako). Not 40%.

Sorry, that's my fault. When you said '1,619 PA', I just assumed that was the total amount of PAs of the players I mentioned that are leaving. 24.8% was the actual number I wanted because that's how much of the production that needs to be replaced came from catchers.

28% of what? Of the Reds' 6,188 PA in 2008, Hatteberg, Andy Phillips, Hairston, and Castro combined for only 7.3%. There aren't any major gains likely to come from a sample that small. Secondly, any plan that involves absolutely everything going right is an exceptionally flawed plan. The Reds can't sit on their hands hoping that everything goes right for every player on their current roster while fishing for mediocrity in the FA or trade market. They need to chew away huge chunks of Run Diff with every single move. Anything else is most likely to result in a repeat of last year...and the year before...and...well, we know.

Just forget the 28% I mentioned in my last post. I just misunderstood your post. The actual number is 17.0%, which actually helps my argument. I agree that it's a bad plan to count on everything going right, but I'm just saying that if everything goes as expected, which, granted, never happens, the Reds offense should perform better in 2009 than it did in 2008, even if an impact bat isn't acquired. Still, if things always went as expected, Jerry Hairston wouldn't have had the year that he did in 2008, so bringing that up goes in both directions. Maybe Laynce Nix will be the next Ryan Ludwick. I wouldn't bank on it, but it could happen just like Brandon Phillips having a .230/.278/.390 year could happen.

32% of what?

Like I said, I just misunderstood your post. It's actually 58.3% of the PAs that need to be replaced that came from outfielders. Chris Dickerson and Norris Hopper will see expanded roles in 2009, which should result in increased production from the center field spot. Jay Bruce should improve on his rookie year and see more playing time, which should also help compensate for the losses of Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey. What's left is finding a starting left fielder and a reserve outfielder who can combine for about 700 PAs with league average production. If the Reds can do that, which shouldn't be too difficult, we should actually see an improvement from the Reds outfielders' 2008 performance.

If the Reds equal their 2008 offensive production, then get ready for yet another losing season. And if you think the addition of one good player gets the Reds back to a bad offense, that tells us a lot about what the Reds need to produce a good offensive season, doesn't it?

I agree that equaling the 2008 production is a recipe for losing. All I'm trying to say is that adding one good player would result in improvement and that adding two good players, with the second one being an everyday shortstop, could ultimately result in a winning team in 2009. Obviously, a lot would have to go right for that to happen, but I don't think it's unrealistic.

[camisadelgolf]

Based on my quick analysis of camis' math, out of that total 2302 AB (2677 PA), 1344 of those total AB came from the OF (1564 PA). So we're looking at 58% of both the AB and the PA.

That's kind of a big chunk.

We've addressed the C situation by replacing what Ross and Bako (and Chip's beloved Javy Valentin) produced with Ramon Hernandez.

What we haven't addressed is an everyday LF, and a 4th OF. I'm not convinced Nix is, or should be our 4th OF. What I do know is that Norris Hopper isn't and shouldn't be our 4th OF.

Like I said in another thread, we can't hope that our offense will be ready to go for 2009 even if we were to add Pat the Bat (I used Dunn as the example in the other thread, but everyone knows how I feel about him by now). For this offense to get noticeably better, we'd have to add 2 Pat the Bats.

... and that ain't happenin'...

It looks like we're on the same wavelength with a lot of this stuff (i.e. the Reds need a starting left fielder and a #4 outfielder). I'm not sure we see eye to eye on this, though: I think the Reds are a Milton Bradley away from being a decent team and a Milton Bradley + a Rocco Baldelli away from being a good deam. However, those are two of the biggest question marks in baseball, but if they could both stay healthy for one season and produce near expected, the Reds would instantly be contenders imo.

[Highlifeman21]

It looks like we're on the same wavelength with a lot of this stuff (i.e. the Reds need a starting left fielder and a #4 outfielder). I'm not sure we see eye to eye on this, though: I think the Reds are a Milton Bradley away from being a decent team and a Milton Bradley + a Rocco Baldelli away from being a good deam. However, those are two of the biggest question marks in baseball, but if they could both stay healthy for one season and produce near expected, the Reds would instantly be contenders imo.

I think Milton Bradley's a step in the right direction, but I don't see Baldelli making enough impact to make us a good team. Does that mean Bradley, Baldelli, Bruce, and Dickerson's the 4th OF?

[dougdirt]

Just some very rough numbers here..... To give us an idea of what we are working with using an average of Marcels/Bill James/CHONE projections and my projected playing time:

Player	        AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	RC
Votto	        550	.296	.372	.508	104
Phillips	575	.269	.321	.445	82
Encarnacion	525	.277	.356	.476	89
Bruce	        575	.281	.340	.504	99
Dickerson	400	.263	.352	.453	64
Hernandez	450	.262	.326	.421	62
Hanigan	        200	.268	.349	.382	27

That puts the Reds at 3275 at bats and 526 RC without anything from a shortstop or a left fielder and only partial playing time from CF.

So lets assume the Reds need another 1100 AB's for LF and SS and another 250 for CF. That puts the Reds at a total of 4625 AB's. Here are the different RC for different OBP/SLG lines.

Position	AB	OBP	SLG	RC
LF/SS/CF	1350	.320	.400	173
LF/SS/CF	1350	.325	.410	180
LF/SS/CF	1350	.325	.420	184
LF/SS/CF	1350	.330	.425	189
LF/SS/CF	1350	.330	.430	192
LF/SS/CF	1350	.335	.430	194
LF/SS/CF	1350	.335	.440	199

If the Reds were able to must just a .330/.430 (.760 OPS) out of those three remaining spots it would put their overall RC from above + this new math at 718 RC for their 4625 AB's.

The Reds pitchers had 286 at bats with an awful line of .139/.146 for a total of 6 RC.

So now we are standing at 4625 AB's for the positional guys and 286 AB's for the pitchers for a total of 4911 AB's. That leaves about 700 AB's that need to be made up still from last year. Even with some bad production off the bench like seen below, it will still add plenty of RC

Position	AB	OBP	SLG	RC
Bench	       700	.280	.350	69
Bench	       700	.290	.375	76
Bench	       700	.300	.400	84
Bench	       700	.310	.420	91

So if the bench contributes a .280/.350 OBP/SLG it still adds nearly 70 RC to the already 718 for a total of 790 RC over their 5600 AB's.

[Highlifeman21]

Just some very rough numbers here..... To give us an idea of what we are working with using an average of Marcels/Bill James/CHONE projections and my projected playing time:

Player	        AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	RC
Votto	        550	.296	.372	.508	104
Phillips	575	.269	.321	.445	82
Encarnacion	525	.277	.356	.476	89
Bruce	        575	.281	.340	.504	99
Dickerson	400	.263	.352	.453	64
Hernandez	450	.262	.326	.421	62
Hanigan	        200	.268	.349	.382	27

That puts the Reds at 3275 at bats and 526 RC without anything from a shortstop or a left fielder and only partial playing time from CF.

So lets assume the Reds need another 1100 AB's for LF and SS and another 250 for CF. That puts the Reds at a total of 4625 AB's. Here are the different RC for different OBP/SLG lines.

Position	AB	OBP	SLG	RC
LF/SS/CF	1350	.320	.400	173
LF/SS/CF	1350	.325	.410	180
LF/SS/CF	1350	.325	.420	184
LF/SS/CF	1350	.330	.425	189
LF/SS/CF	1350	.330	.430	192
LF/SS/CF	1350	.335	.430	194
LF/SS/CF	1350	.335	.440	199

If the Reds were able to must just a .330/.430 (.760 OPS) out of those three remaining spots it would put their overall RC from above + this new math at 718 RC for their 4625 AB's.

The Reds pitchers had 286 at bats with an awful line of .139/.146 for a total of 6 RC.

So now we are standing at 4625 AB's for the positional guys and 286 AB's for the pitchers for a total of 4911 AB's. That leaves about 700 AB's that need to be made up still from last year. Even with some bad production off the bench like seen below, it will still add plenty of RC

Position	AB	OBP	SLG	RC
Bench	       700	.280	.350	69
Bench	       700	.290	.375	76
Bench	       700	.300	.400	84
Bench	       700	.310	.420	91

So if the bench contributes a .280/.350 OBP/SLG it still adds nearly 70 RC to the already 718 for a total of 790 RC over their 5600 AB's.

So you're telling us that you think the Reds are a 790 RS offense for 2009?

[camisadelgolf]

I think Milton Bradley's a step in the right direction, but I don't see Baldelli making enough impact to make us a good team. Does that mean Bradley, Baldelli, Bruce, and Dickerson's the 4th OF?

Yeah, that's pretty much what I had in mind. Both Dickerson and Hopper have options if they struggle, and hopefully someone in AAA could do better than Corey Patterson between Cumberland, Dorn, Henry, McDonald, Nix, and/or Stubbs.

[Mario-Rijo]

Not to be a pain here Doug but do you mean PA's for the above otherwise I have a hard time following?! I have become so focused on PA's that I have a hard time seeing a complete picture w/o the use of them.