Big 10 looks for 12th team

[Sea Ray]

I believe the NBC contract pays ND $9M a year not $15M. Best case Notre Dame gets $4.5M for a bowl and last year of course got nothing and got $750,000 the year before.
I read that the Big 10 schools between the Big 10 Network and ABC/ESPN and bowl games split about $17-22M last season.

Financially it makes sense for ND to join the Big 10.

So each school got about $2mill from TV last year? Am I hearing you right? I don't see how that would make sense for ND even if they were only getting $9mill and I have evidence that it's much more than that.

Don't make a statement like "financially it makes sense" until you have the facts.

According to the NY Times Notre Dame's new contract does indeed pay them $15mill /yr. They were commenting that one year of that would nearly pay off Charlie Weis' contract:

NBC is paying about $15 million a year in the current deal, enough to help fund most of the reported $18 million Notre Dame must pay to buy out Weis’s contract.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/11/sp...omir.html?_r=2

Take note of Barry Alvarez's comment that the new Big Ten team cannot expect an equal share of the Big Ten revenue right off the bat and I would say it makes very little financial sense for ND to join the Big Ten.

Who's going to buy out the rest of NBC's contract since it runs through 2015?

I understand from a fan's perspective it makes tons of sense but when you look at the dollars and cents it really does not.

[BuckeyeRed27]

http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/200...s-independenc/

Here is a pretty good article on the situation and some of the financials.

I looked at several outlets and although there aren't official numbers from any source I found 6 sources that said ND is paid about $9M and one that said they are paid $15M.

And to the other posters point about the BCS payments it is a simple conference vs. independent argument. Indiana, Northwestern, etc. are paid by the BCS. The Big 10 gets money from the BCS every year and splits it up so even if they miss a bowl game (which they usually do) they are going to get paid and most years that is going to be more (probably a lot more) than ND gets paid. BCS games usually pay between $16-19M and the Big 10 has gotten 2 bids most years. So lets say worst case that's $32M to split between 11 schools or just a shade under $3M. That is twice what ND gets plus what the other 5 or 6 schools payouts for not playing a bowl game.

[OUReds]

If a conference places two teams in the BCS, the second team gets a reduced payout (last year is was about 4.5 million dollars as opposed to the 17.7 for the first team). If Notre Dame actually makes a BCS bowl, they receive around 5.8 million million dollars that they do not have to split of course. Source

[joshnky]

And to the other posters point about the BCS payments it is a simple conference vs. independent argument. Indiana, Northwestern, etc. are paid by the BCS. The Big 10 gets money from the BCS every year and splits it up so even if they miss a bowl game (which they usually do) they are going to get paid and most years that is going to be more (probably a lot more) than ND gets paid. BCS games usually pay between $16-19M and the Big 10 has gotten 2 bids most years. So lets say worst case that's $32M to split between 11 schools or just a shade under $3M. That is twice what ND gets plus what the other 5 or 6 schools payouts for not playing a bowl game.

I found this that explains the revenue sharing:

The official BCS website discusses the payouts for the 2008-2009 BCS bowls.[11]

* Each BCS conference is guaranteed approximately $18.3 million, plus an additional $4.5 million should a second conference team be selected. Although each conference has its own arrangement for the distribution of these funds, the average income per school in each conference is as follows (One team selected/Two teams selected):
o Atlantic Coast (12 teams): $1.525M / $1.900M
o Big East (8 teams): $2.288M / $2.850M
o Big Ten (11 teams): $1.664M / $2.073M
o Big 12 (12 teams): $1.525M / $1.900M
o Pacific 10 (10 teams): $1.830M / $2.280M
o Southeastern (12 teams): $1.525M / $1.900M

* Notre Dame is guaranteed 1/66th of net revenues, or approximately $1.3 million. If selected to play in a BCS bowl, Notre Dame will receive $4.5 million.

So, if Notre Dame doesn't make a BCS bowl and the Big Ten has two BCS teams they'd receive $700K less than Ohio State, the Big Ten champ. If they make a BCS game, they'd receive $2.5M more than Ohio St, provided the Big Ten has two BCS teams. From what I've read, the Big Ten distributes the money evenly, so their BCS participant receives the same amount as their last place team. The Big East is the only conference that uses a tiered system. What you were missing in your estimate is that the conference takes out all bowl related expenses before distributing the pay out.

[BuckeyeRed27]

If a conference places two teams in the BCS, the second team gets a reduced payout (last year is was about 4.5 million dollars as opposed to the 17.7 for the first team). Source

Thank you I didn't realize that. Still doesn't change the argument much.

Here is my overall point and I think most would agree with this: If Notre Dame can once again become a consistant Top 10 college football program than I'm sure they can make more money staying independent. If they can't do that year in and year out than they are better off being in a conference and the best choice for them there would be the Big 10.
By not joining a confernce ND is taking the risk that they are going to be returning to a top tier program and soon, otherwise they are probably not making as much money right now as they could be and certainly will be over time.
The choice for them is the risk of staying independent or the guarentee of joining the conference.

[BuckeyeRed27]

I found this that explains the revenue sharing:



So, if Notre Dame doesn't make a BCS bowl and the Big Ten has two BCS teams they'd receive $700K less than Ohio State, the Big Ten champ. If they make a BCS game, they'd receive $2.5M more than Ohio St, provided the Big Ten has two BCS teams. From what I've read, the Big Ten distributes the money evenly, so their BCS participant receives the same amount as their last place team. The Big East is the only conference that uses a tiered system. What you were missing in your estimate is that the conference takes out all bowl related expenses before distributing the pay out.

Two things:

1. That is just for the BCS bowls. You also have to factor in the rest of the bowl games and the Big 10 has nice tie ins that are among the highest non BCS payouts. With those factored in the Big 10 teams will still make more money than ND will if it makes a BCS bowl.

2. Everyone has costs. Obviously NDs cost would be less because they are one team vs. the Big 10 having to pay for 6 or 7 schools expenses, but we haven't taken out NDs costs so why should we take out the Big 10s?

[OUReds]

Thank you I didn't realize that. Still doesn't change the argument much.

If we're only talking long-term finances, I don't think there is any question that ND would be better off in the Big Ten.

[joshnky]

Two things:

1. That is just for the BCS bowls. You also have to factor in the rest of the bowl games and the Big 10 has nice tie ins that are among the highest non BCS payouts. With those factored in the Big 10 teams will still make more money than ND will if it makes a BCS bowl.

Last year, that amounted to $2.2M per team after expenses. The BCS bowls are the only real money makers. Link

2. Everyone has costs. Obviously NDs cost would be less because they are one team vs. the Big 10 having to pay for 6 or 7 schools expenses, but we haven't taken out NDs costs so why should we take out the Big 10s?

The best expense estimate I could find was $2M per bowl game. That would leave them with $2.5M if they went to the BCS, slightly better than Ohio St. Obviously, they would barely break even if they went to a non-BCS game considering the BCS revenue plus whatever bowl revenue they receive. I found this to be helpful:

Notre Dame, during the three years of this BCS contract, has had income revenues of $7.85 million—$4.5 million (2006) + $1.3 (2007) + $1.3 + $750,000 from the Hawaii Bowl (2008).

Expenses run from $2-2.5 million per bowl game, more for Hawaii. Notre Dame’s estimated football expenses from two bowl trips were about $4.5 million, conservatively.

So, their profits from the BCS contract and bowl appearances were probably about $3.35 million for three years total, averaging $1.1 million per year.

This somewhat supports your argument although a one million dollar difference might not be enough considering Notre Dame's desired independence and that fact that they expect to be in the BCS every year, generating huge paydays.

Regardless, given the fact that Notre Dame's next TV deal will probably be less lucrative it would be in their best interests long term to join a conference. Given the (apparent) Big Ten resistance to a special deal for Notre Dame, it might make sense for them to join the Big East in a couple years with a sweet heart deal.

Sorry, I'm not a Notre Dame fan, just trying to play devil's advocate and present their side of the deal.

[Sea Ray]

As far as the Bowls are concerned, ND is golden. They make $4.5mill if they make the BCS and $1.3mill if they don't. That $1.3mill is just a few dimes less than the Big Ten payout of $2.073mill. ND has a very lucrative TV deal plus they can sell a lot of merchandise. No one has shown yet where ND gets a good financial deal for moving to the Big Ten.

It's too early to say that their next TV contract will be for less money. As of right now ND is set financially right where they are.

The Big Ten has made it clear that the existing teams are not going to take a pay cut by adding a 12th team so that says that the new B10 team will not be guaranteed an equal share of the BCS or TV contract.

For these reasons, ND is the least likely team to join the Big 10.

[Sea Ray]

If we're only talking long-term finances, I don't think there is any question that ND would be better off in the Big Ten.

Oh I think there's a question...a big question.

I'll put it this way: there's not a team out there that would benefit less from a move to the Big Ten than Notre Dame. I could make a better case financially for any other team in the country to join the Big Ten than ND

[OUReds]

Oh I think there's a question...a big question.

I'll put it this way: there's not a team out there that would benefit less from a move to the Big Ten than Notre Dame. I could make a better case financially for any other team in the country to join the Big Ten than ND

Well sure, the other teams make less money, so obviously they would have more to gain.

However, if the question is "would Notre Dame make more money in the long term by join the Big Ten then remaining independent or joining the Big East" then I still think the answer is most assuredly yes.

Change the question to "Can Notre Dame make enough money to remain competitive as an elite BSC program without joining the Big Ten" and the answer becomes a lot murkier.

[joshnky]

Well sure, the other teams make less money, so obviously they would have more to gain.

However, if the question is "would Notre Dame make more money in the long term by join the Big Ten then remaining independent or joining the Big East" then I still think the answer is most assuredly yes.

Change the question to "Can Notre Dame make enough money to remain competitive as an elite BSC program without joining the Big Ten" and the answer becomes a lot murkier.

I'd contend that they might be able to make more money in the Big East because that conference might be willing to make them their flagship program while the Big Ten is making comments like they'll have to earn their spot.

[Chip R]

I'd contend that they might be able to make more money in the Big East because that conference might be willing to make them their flagship program while the Big Ten is making comments like they'll have to earn their spot.

I would think that if ND joins a conference, it's going to be the conference that gives them the best deal. Why would they even think about joining the Big 10 if they don't get their share of money for 2-3 years?

[OUReds]

I'd contend that they might be able to make more money in the Big East because that conference might be willing to make them their flagship program while the Big Ten is making comments like they'll have to earn their spot.

I hear ya, but too much is being made of the Alvarez quote.

If ND wants in, they're not going to spend any time as a junior member. The Big Ten would see instant benefit from adding a program like ND, and they know that.

[Yachtzee]

I don't know that ND joining the Big East for football would be such a good deal, what with the Big 10 and other conferences looking to expand. I suspect the premier Big East football programs are most attractive to other conferences looking to expand. If ND waits around for someone to come banging on their door, they could end up in a Big East that has to seek out CUSA or MAC teams to remain a football conference. As has been stated earlier, there is a lot of tension in the Big East as it has too many basketball-only schools and not enough quality football teams. I could see the next iteration of the BCS, if it isn't dumped for a playoff, would involve downgrading the Big East and/or an independent ND to a sort of junior status, in which they compete for BCS bids with conferences like the WAC and CUSA for spots and get a reduced share, since they aren't bringing nearly as much to the table as the Big 10, SEC, PAC 10 and the ACC.

If the Big 10 expands, I expected it to start a chain reaction of conference switches, whichever conference loses a team or teams to the Big 10 is going to turn around and look to pull another team in from another conference. The Big 10 either gets teams from the Big East directly or pulls in a team from another conference, which then goes after the Big East to fill slots. I imagine the Big 10, SEC or ACC would all look like pretty good options for a top Big East program.