I agree with that... but I wonder how much Clint Hurdle put the brakes on him? I can't see Dusty putting the reigns on Taveras if he starts running into outs. I figure he will chalk it up to aggressiveness, even though it tuns into a negative.
I agree with that... but I wonder how much Clint Hurdle put the brakes on him? I can't see Dusty putting the reigns on Taveras if he starts running into outs. I figure he will chalk it up to aggressiveness, even though it tuns into a negative.
Did you mean 80-85% as a team? I ask cuz, if so, that's asking alot. Last year there were only two teams that were successful 80+% of the time: Philadelphia at 84% and (ironically enough) Oakland at 81%. Personally I think if a player can be at least 75% successful than I'd give him the green light most of the time. But if any player can't reach 50% (or even 60%) I wouldn't want him running much at all. I'd also limit those players to only when they'll be more successful.
In WT's 4 years in the bigs his low sb% was 75% with the high of 90% last year. If he has something between 75-90% with a half decent obp (.330-.340) I'll be happy. Not thrilled unless he surprises us with his obp but I can live with that.
Yes, 80% as a team. There are times when getting throw out stealing 2nd isn't a terrible thing like with 2 outs in the inning and a high OBP/speedy leadoff type at the plate that can lead off the next inning. I'm fine with the Reds running, but don't run just to run. They need to run with a purpose and keep the situation in mind.
Well said.
FWIW, Taveras' obp for the WBC is .556. He leads the team in walks (3) and is 2 for 6 w/a rbi. Small sample size, competition factor, etc., but, I really like the walks.If he has something between 75-90% with a half decent obp (.330-.340) I'll be happy. Not thrilled unless he surprises us with his obp but I can live with that.
If he can keep staying selective at the plate, he'll surprise us.
Last edited by JBChance; 03-10-2009 at 02:18 PM. Reason: can't type
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I completely agree with the second part. Running only makes sense if it is situational. That's why Taveras' blunder was so bad, it did not make sense. His getting to third did little to increase his chances of scoring, especially considering how his getting thrown out severly decreased the teams chances of scoring.
Here is a chart which gives an estimate of the odds of scoring per situation.
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html
One note, if you do the math, this chart says that a team needs to steal at a 65% rate or better in order to justify running. But that is a general sense, an average of all situations. Each situation is different.
Willy picked up another 3 walks in the loss and bumped his obp up to .615. Ended up with 6 in 3 games. In fact, 6 walks leads the WBC.
Walks are good
No stolen bases, though. Interesting to note that the DR only had one attempt - the one Willy was thrown out on.
Last edited by JBChance; 03-10-2009 at 11:56 PM.
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