Originally Posted by craftylefty
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i have a feeling the reds will make a trade by sunday and it will be Dexter Fowler
I'd take Fowler. De Aza will be a good player IMO but I think it'd be much riskier to trade just because we've seen less of him compared to Fowler. Honestly if De Aza for some reason would cost a lot less I'd take him. The difference between the two is very small. Bill James is projecting them to have almost identical stats in two hitters parks.
Really good thread everyone, good discussion.
I think what's great is if a move is made that fits the profile really of any of these players named, we'll be a much better club in 2013. I'm optimistic something will happen, just because I'm sort of a "where there's smoke, there's fire" guy. And not to beat a dead horse, but really almost anything in the OBP department is an improvement over last year.
All that being said, I guess I would prefer a guy with more than one year left of team control through trade... or for that matter a one year free agent contract for Bourn. (not likely on a few levels) I love that Billy is on the way and if he pans out perfectly right away, I wouldn't mind having an outfield with a few on-base guys since we have so much pop elsewhere in the order. But I'm worried there will be some growing pains with his development, and would like some depth to platoon with him if Billy struggles or even in a platoon with him.
I think we might be able to get Parra and perhaps a B/C prospect back for Didi Gregorious. I'm a big fan of Didi, but I kind of wonder if that's the most expendable chip at the moment because I'm pretty confident in Cozart's future. Arizona has an expressed interest in him. That might be the move that could impact the organization the least while filling a good platoon role with Parra until 2016.
You know, that LF field point is excellent.
Fowler might be the guy I'd like to see the most, even considering the rumored price (now that we've established it ain't Bailey). Of the options I think we're realistically linked to, I might like his skillset the most. I do think it's fair to assume his extra base hits might suffer some without the forgiving gaps of Colorado. But I also think his HR power will always keep pitchers honest, letting Fowler work at-bats and thrive in the OBP category.
I do think it would start with Leake and Stubbs+. I would lead with Lotzkar or someone of that ilk, and it Colorado balks maybe consider Corcino. But that's probably it. No Cingrani.
I'll be happy with a lot of guys out there though and am excited to see if anything happens.
Last edited by Larkin88; 12-07-2012 at 10:17 PM.
Fowler, clearly.
I also agree with Larkin88 on his power potential (especially at GABP), and that Cingrani shouldn't be offered.
Last edited by malcontent; 12-08-2012 at 01:14 AM.
Alejandro De Aza all day, every day. Fowler hasn't hit away from Coors field and had a .390 BABIB in the first year he's ever hit above .266. People are getting fooled by his overall numbers due to Coors field inflated his numbers, .882 life time OPS there vs .698 on the road.
This was the same argument people had with Matt Holliday. Once players leave Coors, their splits seem to normalize.
Last edited by drowg14; 12-08-2012 at 06:57 AM.
Matt Holliday could hit on the road just not as off the charts great as he did in Coors, Fowler hasn't shown he can hit on the road one bit. Holliday had road OPS of over .800 and his last year with Colorado was just under .900.
He has a higher OBP with the Cards but his numbers aren't as good as they were with Colorado .319 down to .308 and SLG .552 down to .528 and those numbers are with his good but not Matt Holliday level seasons his first year and a half when he was a .800 OPS player.
His career BABIP is .353, so we aren't talking about a guy who was a career .300 BABIP guy and made a huge jump. His .390 BABIP was driven by his major league leading 27.2% Line Drive Rate and his career high 12.3% HR/FB rate. He has always been a good line drive guy but it did take a big jump this past season. Is it an outlier or did he make improvements? That remains to see. Was the HR/FB rate due to him making better contact or due to luck? He won't keep up the .390, but no reason to believe he won't be a .350 BABIP guy and leave him around .270 BA
His BABIP is driven by playing in Denver and its giant park where balls find holes more than anywhere else. He has a .339 road BABIP and that's even after his high 2012.
Defense is an issue as well, -21 Defensive Run Saved for Fowler along with a -12.9 UZR/150 in his career.
My point wasn't that Holliday wasn't good on the road, it's that he wasn't as good on the road as he was at home (where he was a superstar). And once he left Coors, his splits normalized. He became the same hitter on the road as at home.
When one plays all their games in a place like Coors, they have an approach at the plate tailored to hit there. Changing that approach for each road trip, and back for each homestead, can't be the easiest thing in the world. Getting out of Coors should help him become a better ballplayer overall. And the fact that 3 of the cities he plays the most away games in are LA, San Francisco, and San Diego can't help either.
Everyone likes to quote Fowler's 2012 Home/Road splits, what about 2011, when he hit better away from Coors?
So you are critical of his hitting because he plays in a large park but are also critical of his defense in that same park? I'm not saying he's a top notch fielder, but you can't have it both ways
In his best hitting year on the road he had a .415 SLG, DRS was -10 this year and -21 in his career he could be playing in a park with no walls and he's still not getting balls he should. He's a sub par defender and is a question mark to what his offense is on the road that's something I don't like paying prospects for.
His splits closed because he wasn't putting up massive numbers at home making the gap so wide. The last two years with the Rockies he hit .308 and .301 and the last two years with the Cards he's hit .285 and .301 on the road and his OPS has dipped every year as a Cardinal despite the added OBP.
If Fowler got traded his home split is going to fall but his road isn't going to magically spike just like Matt's didn't. I can't recall any player who has ever put up big numbers in Denver go somewhere else and improve across the board, even Matt saw his line drop leaving town.
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