Where does the Reds farm system rank?

[lollipopcurve]

He was a 9th round pick of the Rangers and spent a decent chunk of 2001 in the Sally League(where he played well as an 18 year old). The Rangers saw enough to make him a 9th round pick and he showed very well in 2 months in the Sally League. The Reds could have selected him in 2000 if they thought he was all that.

Of course they could have selected him -- the same is true of all the other teams. All the other teams could have traded for him as a teenager, too, but they didn't -- and the Reds did. Come on -- you can't say the Reds didn't develop EdE. The Rangers drafted him, the Reds traded for him as a teenager and developed him, from Billings on up.

[flyer85]

Of course they could have selected him -- the same is true of all the other teams. All the other teams could have traded for him as a teenager, too, but they didn't -- and the Reds did. Come on -- you can't say the Reds didn't develop EdE. The Rangers drafted him, the Reds traded for him as a teenager and developed him, from Billings on up.

He was not drafted, I made no statements about "developing" him. I simply stated the fact that he is not a true product of the Reds system because he was not drafted by them. To get credit in my book(an most others) for that you need to have the foresight to draft said player and then graduate the player to the majors. The Billings thing is a Red Herring anyway, EE was playing lowA ball and doing well when the Reds traded for him.

[lollipopcurve]

I simply stated the fact that he is not a true product of the Reds system because he was not drafted by them.

But I think you're wrong -- because "the system" is a developmental system, not a drafting system. Development produces players, drafting does not.

[flyer85]

But I think you're wrong -- because "the system" is a developmental system, not a drafting system. Development produces players, drafting does not.

it is both, you have to have the foresight to draft the right players and develop their talent. If you're drafting crap there is nothing to develop. Reds missed out on the foresight part, they took advantage of seeing 2 months of 18 year old doing very well in Low A ball and asked for him in a trade (BTW, it was a move JB often tried, that is getting a player 3-4 years away as a throw in)

[D-Man]

4 Top 40 prospects in all of baseball all in AA or AAA is being short on 'sure or close to sure thing' prospects?

Okay, beyond the top four prospects, who projects as average (or better) major leaguer? And how likely are they to reach their respective ceilings?

There aren't any upper-level hitters that stand out. Perhaps Dorn. . . but he is just as likely to do a Smitherman-like flop as he is to become a major league regular. We haven't seen him in 100 upper-level PAs yet.

Frazier is barely beyond short-season ball. Enough said.

The best bets are probably the cast of AA-AAAA relievers, although I can barely tell any of them apart. They all have 8 or 9 K's per nine, moderately good stuff, and good control thus far. However, none of them has blazing stuff, and I don't see a conversion to starting in the works for any of them because of their limited repertoires.

Maloney is interesting, but he has big warts; Steel is absolutely right about him. Nevertheless, the Reds have a strong history in turning soft-tossers like Maloney into successful major leaguers (see Browning, Schourek, Harang, among others).

I see lots of interesting candidates, but no single prospect beyond the top 4 that is close to a sure thing.

[GoReds33]

Okay, beyond the top four prospects, who projects as average (or better) major leaguer? And how likely are they to reach their respective ceilings?

There aren't any upper-level hitters that stand out. Perhaps Dorn. . . but he is just as likely to do a Smitherman-like flop as he is to become a major league regular. We haven't seen him in 100 upper-level PAs yet.

Frazier is barely beyond short-season ball. Enough said.

The best bets are probably the cast of AA-AAAA relievers, although I can barely tell any of them apart. They all have 8 or 9 K's per nine, moderately good stuff, and good control thus far. However, none of them has blazing stuff, and I don't see a conversion to starting in the works for any of them because of their limited repertoires.

Maloney is interesting, but he has big warts; Steel is absolutely right about him. Nevertheless, the Reds have a strong history in turning soft-tossers like Maloney into successful major leaguers (see Browning, Schourek, Harang, among others).

I see lots of interesting candidates, but no single prospect beyond the top 4 that is close to a sure thing.

I wouldn't consider Harang a soft tosser. He hass a deceptivly quick fastball.

[dougdirt]

Okay, beyond the top four prospects, who projects as average (or better) major leaguer? And how likely are they to reach their respective ceilings?

No other team outside of Boston, TB and NY can even say they have 4 guys like we do.

There aren't any upper-level hitters that stand out. Perhaps Dorn. . . but he is just as likely to do a Smitherman-like flop as he is to become a major league regular. We haven't seen him in 100 upper-level PAs yet.

Bruce and Votto don't stand out? Sure, Dorn could flop. But you can't really argue his success to this point can you? I bet every team in baseball wishes they had Dorn in their system. For what its worth, Dorn has 109 AA plate appearances.

Frazier is barely beyond short-season ball. Enough said.

Which has what to do with his talent on a baseball field?

The best bets are probably the cast of AA-AAAA relievers, although I can barely tell any of them apart. They all have 8 or 9 K's per nine, moderately good stuff, and good control thus far. However, none of them has blazing stuff, and I don't see a conversion to starting in the works for any of them because of their limited repertoires.

Pelland and Roenicke both throw mid 90s.... thats pretty blazing. None of them are real starters, but I will take my chances with Bailey and Cueto for the next two years and hope Fisher, Lecure, Watson or someone else can step into maybe a #5 role if needed.

Maloney is interesting, but he has big warts; Steel is absolutely right about him. Nevertheless, the Reds have a strong history in turning soft-tossers like Maloney into successful major leaguers (see Browning, Schourek, Harang, among others).

If you read around, you will find that I have never been high on Maloney due to his stuff, or lack there of. That said, Aaron Harang is not a soft tosser. The guy works 88-92, but can hit 94 when he wants to. That isn't soft tossing unless we have differing opinions on that one.

I see lots of interesting candidates, but no single prospect beyond the top 4 that is close to a sure thing.

Which still brings me to the point where maybe 3 other teams in baseball can make that same statement. Outside of those, none of them can.

[RedsManRick]

Again, as with all discussion of "strengh" of minor league systems, you have to agree on a measuring stick. It's pretty clear that Doug's and Steel's are different.

Are we talking upside potential? Likely major league contribution? Are we considering all players under a certain age or experience level, or just those yet to make the majors?
Are we comparing the Reds system in 2007 to the Reds system prior, or the Reds to other teams?

For all involved, I'd love to described what a "strong" system looks like in terms of talent throughout. I actually agree with most of Steel's assessments from the individual player perspective. However, I think any measurement such as "strong" is meaningless absent context. Steel, the context matters because you made a claim which invoked it. Yes, most if not all of our prospects have flaws. But such is the nature of the prospects other organizations too.

If we're measuring strength against some platonic ideal of 5 deep across the board with likely major leaguers and a healthy sprinkling of all-stars, then there may be just 1 or 2 "strong" systems in baseball, if that. If "strong" simply means better than average, then that's a defensible claim... assuming you can define how you're measuring strength.

[New Fever]

I believe in this entire discussion people are devaluing the big 4 prospects for the Reds. It's like people are just grouping them all into 1 prospect. Those big 4 prospects are all top 30 prospects in the baseball right now and the last time I checked there are only 30 teams in baseball. Every other team in the NL Central would trade their farm system for the Reds farm system. Another fact is that Jay Bruce is the #1 prospect in baseball. Homer Bailey was ranked as the best pitching prosect in the game in the BA Mid-Season rankings, he probably has dropped a little sense then but he still a top 10 prospect in the game. Joey Votto is a prospect that we here on redszone have been waiting for, a prospect who is ready for the big leagues, he has proven himself the last two seasons. Johnny Cueto has been dominate this year and he maybe a Top 5 pitching prospect in the game. Even if you think that the Reds system is weak after those guys you have to admit that those 4 prospects are very impressive and really can make a system by themselves. The Arizona DiamondBacks' system had no depth going into the 2006 season and was ranked the #1 system in baseball.

[RedsManRick]

It would be interesting to see the minor league systems evaluated on three tiers: Young Major Leaguers (expected to contribute in <1 year), Upper Minors(expected to contribute in 1-3 years), and Lower Minors (expected to contribute in 3+ years). If a guy is already making significant contributions, then he's no longer a prospect -- i.e. Ryan Braun.

This usually seems to be the major flaw in the ranking systems. It's just so hard to properly account for the variability in development.
It would be more informative for me to know that the Reds are...

- 20th in Young Major Leaguers
- 4th in Upper Minors
- 17th in Lower Minors

...than it would be to say 13th overall.

Just like .250/.350/.475 is a lot more informative than any one of those, or even OPS.

Sure, you can debate the definitions for those three groups, but the idea is pretty simple and would do a lot to prevent this run around. Maybe you weight the categories and still come up with an overall rank, however, we seem to be missing this middle level of meaningful aggregation when we jump from individuals to the entire system.

[medford]

Interesting reading for sure. Thanks for all the replys. However, I still am left w/ one question, the question posed in this very thread's title. Where does the Reds system rank? I've seen doug post 8-10, and someone else mention 4-6. Other than that, there has been very little comparision about how the Red's farm system (however you want to define it) compares w/ other farm systems.

Now I fully understand that this is a very difficult question to answer for the average fan, heck even a moderatly well heeled Red's minor league baseball fan. Afterall, we're all primarly fans of the Reds and thus fans of any prospects/suspects they may have. However how much time does it take to have a firm grip of 30 team's minor league structures & talent? I have enough trouble keeping up w/ the on goings on the Red's minor league system and am truly only able to do so b/c of the fine people that post on this site.

Personally, I think this is the singular most important question regarding the Reds and their future. We have seen that any recent Reds owner has either been unwilling or unable to spend the money to keep up w/ the joneses (or the Yankees/Red Sox/etc...) I personally don't expect this to change any time soon as it will always be more difficult, if not impossible for the Reds to generate the same kind of revenue that the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc... can generate. Therefor, I can not in good conscious reasonable ask any Reds owner to throw around the same kind of jack that the Yankees do. Carl Linder may have had more money than god himself, but he didn't get there by throwing good money after bad.

W/ all of that said, the only way I envision the Reds truly competing is to use a modified version of the Twins/As scheme. Draft, sign, trade for and generally acquire top level young talent ready to hit the big league scene around the same time. They must quickly decide which of these young stars are true keepers to be signed to long term contracts while they're still cheap, and which of these players are best to be used as trade bait to acquire more young cheap talent that can developed down the line. I believe the Indians are the best at doing this. They haven't been able to sustain the same pipeline that the As have on a regular basis, but they have managed to identify a core group of young talent and sign them to long term contracts. They did this back in the Albert Belle days, and after time proved this core to become too expensive to keep around, they built up again w/ the current regime and have the making of a potential world series champion w/n the next 5 seasons.

So back to the original question, where does the Reds system rank? I find this to be extremely relavant. Most Reds fan recognize that Marge all but destroyed the lower minor leagues, and Bowden left the sytem relatively bare at the end of his tenure thru injuries and bad signings/draft deals. The combination of Brad Kuhlman, Dan O, and WK have built the Reds system back up to a level closer to what it needs to be. I don't think its all the way there, but I think its getting close. Where they rank in comparision to other clubs would give me a better prespective of where I could/might expect the Reds parent club to lie in comparision to other major league squads in the next 5 seasons.

So thanks again to everyone that posted their thoughts on this whether I agree w/ them or not. If anyone has an honest opinion of who ranks higher/lower than the reds and why, I'd love to hear them. If its too much for the average fan to acuratly gauge and I'd have to turn to BA for that answer then so be it.

[medford]

It would be interesting to see the minor league systems evaluated on three tiers: Young Major Leaguers (expected to contribute in <1 year), Upper Minors(expected to contribute in 1-3 years), and Lower Minors (expected to contribute in 3+ years). If a guy is already making significant contributions, then he's no longer a prospect -- i.e. Ryan Braun.

This usually seems to be the major flaw in the ranking systems. It's just so hard to properly account for the variability in development.
It would be more informative for me to know that the Reds are...

- 20th in Young Major Leaguers
- 4th in Upper Minors
- 17th in Lower Minors

...than it would be to say 13th overall.

Just like .250/.350/.475 is a lot more informative than any one of those, or even OPS.

Sure, you can debate the definitions for those three groups, but the idea is pretty simple and would do a lot to prevent this run around. Maybe you weight the categories and still come up with an overall rank, however, we seem to be missing this middle level of meaningful aggregation when we jump from individuals to the entire system.

Interesting, I like that idea. Might help give a better gauge of the overall talent level w/n an organization to look at it that way as well as giving us a reference point to determine who might be 2-3 seasons away vs who is at 5 seasons away and would be best served to trade their older expensive vets right now.

[M2]

Here's a nominal list of the top 4 high minors/not yet established in the bigs kids in each system (note: I'm going beyond the normal rookie status that BA uses).

Mets - Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Mulvey - solid list, especially with Fernando Martinez and Phil Humber lurking

Phillies - Michael Bourn, J.A. Happ, J.D. Durbin, Greg Golson - is there a worse system at the moment?

Braves - Joey Devine, Jo-Jo Reyes, Brandon Jones, Matt Harrison - pretty meh, Yunel Escobar has pretty much become a regular so he didn't qualify

Nats - John Lannan, Joel Hanrahan, Josh Whitesell, Collin Balester - how ironic to have a team in D.C. that can't seem to get out of its own way

Marlins - Robert Andino, Rick VandenHurk, Daniel Barone, Gaby Hernandez - no one promotes more haphazardly than the Fish

Cubs - Felix Pie, Geovany Soto, Ronny Cedeno, Sean Gallagher - Jeff Samardzija, Donald Veal, Tyler Colvin and Scott Moore have some name value too, though I'm not particularly high on any of them

Brewers - Yovanni Gallardo, Manny Parra, Zach Jackson, Alcides Escobar - Gallardo was real borderline for me, but he's still shy of establishing himself, IMO

Cardinals - Colby Rasmus, Bryan Anderson, Jaime Garica, P.J. Walters - Chris Perez might belong on there, Rick Ankiel too, it's a stronger group than Reds fans would like, get ready for a decade of Bruce vs. Rasmus arguments

Reds - Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto - sweet group, but we knew that

Astros - Troy Patton, Juan Gutierrez, Josh Anderson, Brian Bogusevic - if you're not impressed by that list it's just a case of you having a sane and rational reaction

Pirates - Andrew McCutcheon, Brian Bixler, Neil Walker, Steven Pearce - that's a nice set of bats in the pipeline

Padres - Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli, Josh Geer, Cesar Ramos - loaded in AA, Will Inman's there too

D-Backs - Justin Upton, Max Scherzer, Carlos Gonzalez, Esmerling Vasquez - as strong a group as you'll find, Greg Smith and Alberto Collaspo aren't too bad either, most of the major league team is comprised of young guys finding their way as well

Dodgers - Andy LaRoche, Jonathan Meloan, Chin-Lung Hu, Clayton Kershaw - another highly ranked group, Justin Orenduff, Scott Elbert (if he can come back healthy) and Tony Abreu all have some prospect glitter too

Rockies - Ian Stewart, Ubaldo Jiminez, Chris Iannetta, Franklin Morales - Juan Morillo and Seth Smith aren't slouches either, Greg Reynolds would have made the list except he got injured, deep system

Giants - Nate Schierholtz, Pat Misch, John Bowker, Nick Pereira - Eugenio Velez was named the minor league offensive player of the year in 2006 too, I believe the Giants are fond of William Bergolla too

Red Sox - Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Jon Lester - as noted above, they're supergood, Michael Bowden slots in at #5

Yankees - Phillips Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne - I saw Kennedy's first start at Yankee Stadium this weekend, he's got more zip than advertised

Blue Jays - Adam Lind, Jesse Litsch, Brandon League, Chad Mottola - incredibly weak system, Mottola makes the list for career achievement

Orioles - Garrett Olson, Nolan Reimold, Luis Antonio Jimenez, Radhames Liz - Adam Loewen (when he gets healthy) would be on this list, Jim Hoey's had an interesting season

D-Rays - Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Evan Longoria, Jacob McGee - Reid Brignac's getting exposed (IMO), J.P. Howell has always been a personal favorite of mine, Chris Mason took a big step forward this season

Indians - Asdrubal Cabrera, Adam Miller, Brian Barton, Jordan Brown - Chuck Lofgren is a solid 5th, ex-Red farmhand Jeff Stevens had a bit of a breakout season, Franklin Gutierrez looks like he's got himself a regular job so he didn't make the list

Tigers - Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Larish - top flight group

Twins - Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla, Glen Perkins - Scott Baker looks like he's finally seized a rotation slot, there's a pack of pitchers on the heels of this one too

Royals - Kyle Davies, Billy Buckner, Chris Lubanski, Luke Hochevar - they've got a sleeper reliever prospect named Jarrod Plummer too

White Sox - John Danks, Josh Fields, Gio Gonzalez, Jack Egbert - Danks and Fields have been given big league jobs, but have yet to prove they deserve them, Brian Anderson and Gavin Floyd are in similar situations

Angels - Brandon Wood, Erick Aybar, Joe Saunders, Nick Adenhart - this system has spent most of 2007 losing its luster

Mariners - Adam Jones, Ryan Feierabend, Wladimir Balentien, Jeff Clement - there's a good number of interesting AA players behind them (Michael Saunders, Matt Tuiasosopo, Joseph Woerman), there's even more in A ball, this system is having itself quite a flourish

A's - Daric Barton, Dan Meyer, Dallas Braden, Landon Powell - Michael Madsen made the Future's Game too, Kurt Suzuki seems to have seized the starting catcher reins in the majors so I didn't list him

Rangers - Brandon McCarthy, Jarrod Salatalamacchia, Edinson Volquez, German Duran - better group than I'd have expected here, it's easy to forget that McCarthy is so young, David Murphy and Kason Gabbard (the return for Eric Gagne) was a pretty solid haul as well

[dougdirt]

Medford, let me say that if BP and BA come out with their rankings and the Reds are not in the top 10, I would be absolutely beyond shocked. The top end talent they have is nearly unrivaled by any team in baseball and the talent has been trickling upward this past season.

[coachw513]

First, great thread...the dissenting views actually bring the "truth" closer to the light...

To me, the added depth in the organization is necessary fodder to bring the starting pitching we so desperately need...FA pitching is overvalued and hyper-risked...deadline deals are hard to make for starting pitching...but if the depth continues to improve in the areas mentioned by many, clearly we should see minor-league value as pawns to improve the rotations #3/4/5 spots given the uncertainty in the near future of Bailey and Cueto...

IMHO, as others have said I am more and more believing we have propped up Votto's AAA season in a desire to move him in the offseason...we hid him from any first-case ML liabilities and difficulties to maximize his stock...and I'm sliding very firmly into the move Dunn to 1B as seamlessly as we moved Griffey to RF a year ago...much machinations about how it wouldn't work (Griffey not accepting the move) but was seemingly no problem whatsoever...