I was waiting for someone to put Duran in their top 10. He's got the tools to be an absolute beast down the road.Originally Posted by dougdirt
I was waiting for someone to put Duran in their top 10. He's got the tools to be an absolute beast down the road.
We have gone over this at least 3 times in other threads. Go read those. Wood is a fine prospect, potentially a Top 125 prospect in baseball at this point. The Reds system, despite graduating Bailey, Bruce, Votto and Cueto this year still could have the potential to have 5 or 6 guys in the top 100 this year.
How many times...His numbers in may were unlucky, based on line drive rate...He is starting to turn things back around and has two doubles in his past couple games...
Yeah I really like him, I have him in my top 10...I really hope that he sees a little time in the GCL this year...
Ah, I missed you having him at #10 in yours. Yeah he's still incredibly young and raw, but a potential 80 power makes me salivate.
A quick list here, nothing too concrete ...
1) Alonso
2) Frazier
3) Thompson
4) Mesoraco
5) Maloney
6) Stubbs
7) Valaika
8) Wood
9) Duran
10) Lotzkar
There's always been interesting discussion about Stubbs for the last two years, but I'm waiting for his attempt to take on Southern League pitching once he reaches Chattanooga. I think that will be a pretty good step in determining the probability of Stubbs' success moving forward.
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
I think Wood will be higher than that. I also think you tend to do two things with Reds prospects: overvalue the higher picks by ignoring their flaws. You once touted Stubbs as a potential .900 OPS guy in the majors. You also tend to dismiss performance over potential. Wood, taken in the context of his development, and the things the Reds tried to make him do in Dayton is easily a top 100 prospect. He pitched extremely well in Sarasota, and is pitching better in Chatt.
I agree that the Reds could have 5-6 guys in the top 100. I don't think at this point Stubbs is one of them. Knowing that BA will likely put Alonso in their top 100 list I see the reds having the following in the top 100:
Thompson, Frazier, Mesoraco, Wood, Alonso.
Maybe not in that order, but those 5 easily.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Mesoraco was flat out terrible last year. That is no debate. He has done well so far in Dayton, but it has been in very small body of work, as he was just recently called up.
I agree he's one of the Reds top prospects, but I was just going by your performance and one full-year criteria, in which he has not fulfilled either at this point.
Whether he has seen a pro pitch or not, between three years at Miami and one summer in the Cape Cod, Alonso has already faced better and more competition than Mesoraco. Even if Alonso has the worst case beginning to his pro career and struggles at Dayton or Sarasota, a year from now he's still a top 10 Reds prospect on everyone's list, so what difference does it make if has a full year under his belt?
Luck had something to do with it, but an OPS of .612 in May isn't just bad luck.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Not sure about that. Performance matters, but only to a certain point. The key is to see why they are performing the way they are and how that projects going forward. Ramon Geronimo and Robert Manuel are absolutely dominating the competition right now. Neither are even close to the Reds top relievers (ok, Geronimo might be 4th or 5th best reliever). Performance only goes so far, projection, while tougher to put your finger on, is a lot more valuable when it comes to projecting someones future.
So the numbers are lying? The league numbers are lying...Why don't you accept the fact that while his numbers didn't look great in May they don't tell the whole story...Numbers don't tell the whole story, you have to figure out what is going to into those numbers and getting them to those numbers...
Thus unlucky #'s due to linedrive rate, hard league to hit in, thus lack of power numbers, etc...
1. Mesoraco
Big value for catchers who can hit.
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Alonso
5. Stubbs
6. Wood
7. Francisco
8. Maloney
9. Duran
10. Valaika
I like this list better than anyone's else. And it would certainly be closer to something BA would likely do.
Frazier
Mesoraco
Alonso
Stubbs
Valaika
Thompson
Wood
Duran
Lotzkar
Watson
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
1. Thompson
2. Wood (I really like him, and think we have a gem coming. Watch and see)
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs (count me on the he's-undervalued-on-this-board group)
5. Alonso
6. Mesoraco
7. Valaika
8. Roenicke
9. Maloney
10. Francisco
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