"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
What am I missing on Blyleven's 1973 season? Doesn't seem overly impressive alongside some of those others.
Rounding third and heading for home...
M2 (01-13-2014)
it's an interesting benchmark
Code:INNINGS PITCHED >= 300 STRIKEOUTS/WALKS >= 3.70 RSAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria ERA YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE IP SO/BB RSAA 15 Addie Joss 1908 1.22 1.16 2.39 325 4.33 47 12 Bert Blyleven 1973 1.30 2.52 3.82 325 3.85 53 4 Bob Gibson 1968 1.86 1.12 2.98 305 4.32 56 10 Christy Mathewson 1911 1.40 1.99 3.39 307 3.71 47 13 Christy Mathewson 1912 1.28 2.12 3.40 310 3.94 45 18 Christy Mathewson 1913 1.14 2.06 3.20 306 4.43 40 22 Christy Mathewson 1908 0.92 1.43 2.35 390.2 6.17 44 1 Cy Young 1901 2.04 1.62 3.66 371.1 4.27 72 24 Cy Young 1903 0.87 2.08 2.95 341.2 4.76 44 25 Cy Young 1905 0.82 1.82 2.65 320.2 7.00 30 31 Cy Young 1904 0.63 1.97 2.60 380 6.90 29 19 Denny McLain 1968 1.02 1.96 2.98 336 4.44 42 30 Don Drysdale 1963 0.66 2.63 3.29 315 4.40 14 14 Ed Walsh 1910 1.25 1.27 2.52 369.2 4.23 42 21 Ed Walsh 1908 0.97 1.42 2.39 464 4.80 39 26 Ferguson Jenkins 1974 0.80 2.82 3.62 328.1 5.00 23 27 Ferguson Jenkins 1971 0.70 2.77 3.47 325 7.11 39 29 Ferguson Jenkins 1970 0.66 3.39 4.05 313 4.57 53 33 Ferguson Jenkins 1969 0.39 3.21 3.60 311.1 3.85 22 34 Ferguson Jenkins 1968 0.35 2.63 2.98 308 4.00 28 6 Grover C Alexander 1915 1.52 1.22 2.74 376 3.77 69 16 Jim Bunning 1966 1.20 2.41 3.61 314 4.58 43 28 Jim Kaat 1966 0.69 2.75 3.44 304.2 3.73 37 8 Juan Marichal 1969 1.50 2.10 3.60 300 3.80 51 11 Juan Marichal 1966 1.38 2.23 3.61 307 6.17 42 23 Juan Marichal 1963 0.88 2.41 3.29 321 4.07 26 32 Juan Marichal 1968 0.56 2.43 2.98 326 4.74 16 20 Rube Waddell 1904 0.98 1.62 2.60 383 3.84 40 3 Sandy Koufax 1966 1.88 1.73 3.61 323 4.12 58 7 Sandy Koufax 1965 1.50 2.04 3.54 336 5.38 40 9 Sandy Koufax 1963 1.41 1.88 3.29 311 5.28 40 2 Walter Johnson 1912 1.95 1.39 3.34 369 3.99 74 5 Walter Johnson 1913 1.78 1.14 2.92 346 6.39 75 17 Walter Johnson 1910 1.16 1.36 2.52 370 4.12 49
dougdirt (01-14-2014),RedFanAlways1966 (01-14-2014)
I don't have a problem with trying if the number is reliable. Pitching WAR is more reliable than a lot of stats that get thrown around all the time, but it also has its problems. For one, the impact of quality relievers is undervalued in relation to middle of the road starting pitchers.
Stick to your guns.
REDREAD (01-14-2014)
I would happily disagree with this notion. To the extent that relief pitcher run prevention is more valuable to the team because of timing, I see little reason that the value from that event should be credited to the pitcher whom the team chose to use. Though I recognize many people disagree with that perspective, believing that player performance should be leverage adjusted.
Put differently, if I'm asked which player was more effective in a given year, I'll take the excellent reliever who pitched in long relief over the merely decent one who served as closer, even if leverage adjusted WAR would suggested otherwise. I can decide to use the long reliever in higher leverage situations, making the runs he prevents more valuable. I can't make the lesser pitcher prevent more runs.
Or considered against the mediocre SP, how many more games is your team in a position to win because you have a mediocre SP instead of a poor one? And how does that compare to the effect of relievers of a comparable WAR gap?
To me, the strength of WAR is precisely that it gets us outside of these kind of mental biases we're so prone to.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Completely disagree.
The idea of WAR is not to determine who was a better pitcher, who was more effective, but to determine who helped his team win more often. Otherwise, it shouldn't be called Wins Above Replacement, it should called, Run Prevention/Creation Above Replacement. They translate the runs created/prevented into Wins for a reason.
Pitching in high leverage innings means that you are having a greater effect on your team's ability to win. A pitcher who pitches in high leverage situations should get more credit for helping his team win than a pitcher who pitches in low leverage situations. The only reason why we don't need to do that for hitters, is the general assumption is that most hitters hit in the same amount of high and low leverage situations over the course of a season. That is not the case with relief pitchers.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
The funny thing is that this is a terrible example to make his point.
Guidry was 25-3, or had 22 wins overall.
Assuming that the game is 50-50 in terms of run creation and run prevention being responsible for team wins, that would put Guidry at being responsible for 11 wins. Then you have to factor in the value of the defense behind him. A very rough estimate would put it in the 75-25 range between the pitcher and his defense being responsible for run prevention. 75% of 11 wins is 8.3 wins. fWAR has him at 8.8 WAR. So really, WAR overestimates the true effect that Guidry had on the Yankees winning record in 1978.
WAR is actually very accurate with great pitchers, which makes sense. It's a good blunt tool, so it can do a good job with the extremes. The difficulty WAR has, imo, is in the middle. It just has a hard time accurately telling who's been better over the last few years, Mike Leake or Homer Bailey or Matt Garza or Ryan Dempster or Bronson Arroyo.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
RedsManRick (01-14-2014)
Another issue is the reliance on FIP to accumulate WAR.
We know, because it's been shown time and again, that pitchers do have an ability to influence batted ball types and what happens in play -- to a degree. But WAR uses FIP, at least Fangraphs' version does, and that takes absolutely nothing into account in the field of play.
I don't think the problem has to do with boiling it down to a single number, as you said. It's good to be able to stack a player's value up against everyone in the game, whether at his position or at another position. However, it should be taken with a grain of salt until we have done a better job quantifying every player's worth. There's still some wiggle room with pitchers, and a lot of room with defense.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Brutus (01-15-2014)
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |