I am an idiot.Originally Posted by Benihana
With that said, I don't think anything that happens over the next two months is going to provide an answer. Player A may be a better player than Player B right now, but that doesn't always make them a better prospect.
Heisey has outperformed Stubbs offensively at every single level of their professional careers. While I'm not yet ready to proclaim Heisey the better prospect, I will if he outperforms Stubbs in Louisville the rest of the season.
About seven or eight years ago, the Cubs had two pitchers who were big prospects that the Reds were particularly interested in acquiring in exchange for Pokey Reese. While both went on to productive major league careers, the one who wasn't as highly rated and was considered readily available (Carlos Zambrano) ended up outperforming the much more highly rated one who was also considered untouchable (Juan Cruz).
A similar thing happened two decades earlier in Cincinnati, with Kurt Stillwell and a guy named Barry Larkin. We may or may not be witnessing the same phenomenon with Stubbs and Heisey, but at least now we have an equal platform to compare them. When it comes time, I just hope the Reds make the right choice between the two- much like they did 20 years ago with Larkin over Stillwell.
Go BLUE!!!
Larkin/Stillwell was incredibly easy. The numbers were completely and entirely skewed in one direction and the tools were very similar (both reportedly top end tools). Thats not really what we are seeing with Heisey/Stubbs. The overall production has been pretty similar while one guy has the better tools while being ever so slightly outperformed.
Doug, were you alive when the Larkin/Stillwell decision was made? At the time, it was NOT incredibly easy.
In 1987, the first full season in the majors for both and the final season before Stillwell was traded, the numbers were as follows:The numbers were completely and entirely skewed in one direction.
Larkin, age 23, put up a .677 OPS in Cincinnati in 439 AB.
Stillwell, age 22, put up a .691 OPS in Cincinnati in 395 AB.
Those sound "completely and entirely skewed in one direction" to me.
Last edited by Benihana; 06-27-2009 at 04:44 PM.
Go BLUE!!!
I don't think Heisey/Stubbs is necessarily either/or. If both players continue to improve, there is no reason they both can't end up starting in Cincy. The organization should not feel backed into a trade corner over a redundancy in this case -- get value, or don't deal.
Larkin/Stillwell was not an easy call. If I recall correctly, the organization was leaning towards keeping Stillwell at SS and moving Larkin to 2B. But Larkin made it clear he wanted to be a SS. Fortunately, the Reds saw their way through to managing that situation well. While Heisey/Stubbs is an important talent glut the team must sort out, it does not seem to present as critical a decision as the SS one was back in the late 80s. Let's hope it's handled as deftly.
I honestly don't believe either Heisey or Stubbs (or Dickerson) will ever hit enough to be a starting LF on a legitimate team. The Reds are going to have to make a choice at some point, and now might be the time when they can potentially get the most value if they make a move. But like I said, I just hope they make the right decision.
Go BLUE!!!
Problem for both Heisey and Stubbs as far as CF goes may be getting the position away from CD. Don't look now, but his OPS is close to .800 after tonight.
Why can't they just be happy with a solid 4th OF that does not cost much?
If Votto goes to LF and Yonder plays 1st that is.
Some interesting decisions to be made about OF next spring, even if we add nobody. If Yonder is ready to go, then potential OFers could include Votto, Bruce, Dickerson, Nix, Gomes, Stubbs, Heisey, Dorn--not to mention the still under contract WT.
If Taveras, assuming he continues this level of production, is even in the equation next spring then I am moving to Canada and becoming a Blue Jay's fan.
He might be the worst ballplayer that I have ever had the misfortune of seeing play, and is actually a factor that keeps me AWAY from going to games at GABP. Watching someone with the baseball skills of the monkey from "Most Valuable Primate" is not entertaining.
I think the Reds will hold on to Stubbs over Heisey pretty much no matter what. He was drafted highly and was paid more money.
Kurt Stillwell and Barry Larkin may have put up similar numbers at the MLB level, but in the minors it wasn't even close.Doug, were you alive when the Larkin/Stillwell decision was made? At the time, it was NOT incredibly easy.
In 1987, the first full season in the majors for both and the final season before Stillwell was traded, the numbers were as follows:
Larkin, age 23, put up a .677 OPS in Cincinnati in 439 AB.
Stillwell, age 22, put up a .691 OPS in Cincinnati in 395 AB.
Those sound "completely and entirely skewed in one direction" to me.
Stillwell was a guy who had this for a minor league track record.
Numbers declining every step of the way and never showed anything resembling power at all. Sure, he was young for his levels, but the guy was the epitome of a light hitter.Code:Age Level AB H 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG OPS 18 Rk 250 81 10 1 2 .324 .418 .396 814 19 A 382 96 15 1 4 .251 .365 .327 692 20 AAA 182 48 7 4 1 .264 .340 .363 703 21 AAA 30 7 0 0 0 .233 .281 .233 514
Larkin on the flip side of things had this in his minor league track record.
Struggled to adjust to wooden bats in his debut at AA. First full season in the minors he tore through AAA like it was his job with power, average and strong plate discipline (31 walks, 43 K's). I didn't have to be alive (which I was) to look at those two guys and tell who was the easy decision between the two.Code:Age Level AB H 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG OPS 21 AA 255 68 13 2 1 .267 .331 .345 676 22 AAA 413 136 31 10 10 .329 .373 .525 898
Both had 'the tools'. One guy had baseball skills and to be honest, it was fairly easy to see who that guy was by looking at their bodies of work. One guy killed AAA and one guy OPS'd sub .700 there.
While fans may not have known which one was better (because really, all the information they had to go on is what was told to them. No internet, no way to track MILB stats, nothing), the Reds really should have been able to and so should other teams who had access to the numbers and scouting reports.
Numbers declining every step of the way? You're referring to 30 ABs he had in AAA at age 21 after skipping two levels. Please Doug, I thought you were better than that. Do you think that may have been a case of overpromotion given that he was the second pick of the draft? For someone who is constantly defending Homer Bailey, Drew Stubbs and Devin Mesoraco, you sure can be hypocritical at times.
Once again you're ignoring what was at the time the most relevant line of stats- their production at the major league level at the same time (while Stillwell was a year younger.) This argument is pointless, anyone who was following the Reds at the time knows that it was not a clear-cut, one-sided decision. Please stick to topics that you are personally more familiar with.Larkin on the flip side of things had this in his minor league track record.
Struggled to adjust to wooden bats in his debut at AA. First full season in the minors he tore through AAA like it was his job with power, average and strong plate discipline (31 walks, 43 K's). I didn't have to be alive (which I was) to look at those two guys and tell who was the easy decision between the two.Code:Age Level AB H 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG OPS 21 AA 255 68 13 2 1 .267 .331 .345 676 22 AAA 413 136 31 10 10 .329 .373 .525 898
Both had 'the tools'. One guy had baseball skills and to be honest, it was fairly easy to see who that guy was by looking at their bodies of work. One guy killed AAA and one guy OPS'd sub .700 there.
While fans may not have known which one was better (because really, all the information they had to go on is what was told to them. No internet, no way to track MILB stats, nothing), the Reds really should have been able to and so should other teams who had access to the numbers and scouting reports.
Go BLUE!!!
Echo benihana and others who saw that unfold. It was FAR from clear who the Reds should keep, and there was heated debete within and without the organization.
Bailey and Stubbs had performance numbers on their side at different stages. Mesoraco has tools, not much performance but has shown decent secondary skills. Its not hypocritical, Stillwell went from an 800 OPS in rookie ball to a 700 OPS at the next two levels he was at. Sure, his third stop was 10 points better than his second stop. It was still much lower than the first stop and well, not anything impressive in terms of the stat category (when compared to Larkin for example).
Not really ignoring anything. Stillwell and Larkin shouldn't have been a close decision and I don't have to be 'personally' familiar with it to know that. Larkin showed power and other secondary skills in the minor leagues while having similar tools. Stillwell showed an abillity to draw a walk in the minors, but not other real offensive skills with similar tools. Why is it not an easy choice to take the guy with just as good tools, who also produced over the guy with the same type of tools, but very little production and offensively only had one skill (drawing a walk)? The fact that I wasn't old enough at the time to be familiar with it doesn't change that fact that one guy had tools that he used as skills (Larkin - Defense, power, hittability, discipline) and one guy had tools that he couldn't really use as skills (Stillwell - Defense and discipline).Once again you're ignoring what was at the time the most relevant line of stats- their production at the major league level at the same time (while Stillwell was a year younger.) This argument is pointless, anyone who was following the Reds at the time knows that it was not a clear-cut, one-sided decision. Please stick to topics that you are personally more familiar with.
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