I posted the whole Miguel for Votto/Chap + reds farm system on www.motownsports.com and the overwhelming response was they would want the Tigers to make the trade. Some said no because of Fielder.
From the Reds' vantage point I don't see them even thinking about trading Chapman right now. At some point it would make sense because many relievers have short shelf lives. But now -- I don't see it.
First off, Chapman is a big drawing/ratings card. Did he deserve to be an All Star this year? Arguably not. Still, the league wanted him. They wanted his fastball on TV. He's good for business.
Secondly, the Reds bullpen is diminished by injury, it would seem to be the worst time to trade Chapman. And mid-season during a pennant race? If they want to switch to a Hoover as closer (one of very few viable choices) you wouldn't think they would do it at this point.
Thirdly, the Reds really care about late innings relievers. Maybe they care too much but they have traded half a farm system (intentional overstatement) to get guys like Marshall and Broxton. So they don't have the same view of many folks here that these guys are fungible and not worth very much
individually.
Again, at some point it probably makes sense to trade a fastball reliever. They usually fade. But I don't think the Reds would do it right now.
If they got back a top ranked, proven closer? Possible, then, although I still think unlikely.
Last edited by Kc61; 07-18-2013 at 10:07 AM.
I agree the Reds would not do this, but if you can get a potential impact bat like Cast (who actually is a third basemen, but blocked by Miggy) AND a very good reliver in Smyly (9.2 k/9 - 2.2 bb/9) you would have to do it. I actually do not think there is any way the Tigers would consider this trade unless they were really desperate.
I like the idea of moving Chapman. I think he's overrated as long as he is a reliever.
Sending Chapman to Det?!?! I'm a fan! Castellanos is a stud right now in AAA (LF possibly solved for the next 3 years at league minimum). High OBP for the 2 hole with a solid glove? Then if they kick in Smyly, they give us Chapman's replacement. High k/9 low bb/9.
I would love for that trade to go through.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
Tom Servo (07-18-2013)
I doubt the Tigers would trade Castellanos and Smyly for Chapman. The only trade idea that I've seen that is both realistic and beneficial to the team right now is a deal for Doumit. Though, by itself, it won't be enough. Which means they'll need another trade. And when you start needing multiple trades to get you where you need, you realize that the Reds are, as I said earlier, in a bit of a tough spot vis this postseason.
I didn't say Doumit was the answer, I said Rojos proposal to get a bat like Doumits was realistic. And his bat would help, as evidenced by the below replacement output they're currently getting at catcher.
But as I said in my post, that's certainly not enough.
In my ideal scenario, they get David Wright and move Frazier to
Left. Two problems solved.
Doesn't seem likely the Reds will do that. When has Jocketty ever favoured a slight hitting improvement for the C position while sacrificing defense?
I think they'll continue to look for upgrades at the LF position, but I don't think it makes sense to change the catching situation this late in the game considering the importance of the continued success of the pitching. If Jocketty could find a catcher who excels in both areas, then it would be a fine of improving.... unfortunately, Posey isn't available!
I do think the Reds need multiple trades. They are getting so little offense from certain positions (plural) and have had so many key bullpen injuries that there are a lot of spots to upgrade.
The good news is that they don't have to trade for stars. Some of these positions are hitting so far below sea level that a competent short-term veteran will help.
The bad news, as you point out, is that the Reds have multiple needs.
True, Doumit would probably be no worse of a back-up catcher at this point.
I'd personally rather keep going with Mes because I think his bat will come around.... don't really see him being much worse than Doumit right now, and continue his progression in the future. It's not like Doumit is lighting the world on fire and would be anything more than a very marginal improvement even in a dream scenario.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
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