"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.
I think Broxton will be good enough to close, but he's obviously a step down from Chapman.
People bring up a good point about save percentage over the course of the season. Someone pointed out that Chapman's actual save percentage last year was only marginally better than others. This team is pretty deep in the bullpen and rotation. I am guessing even a Danny Graves type closer might be adequate. As long as Broxton isn't 2011 Coco, we probably still win the division.
If we make the playoffs though, save situations will be a little bit more tense than if Chapman was in there.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
The difference in save % between the 2011 Cordero and the 2012 Chapman is that the 2011 Cordero had one more save opportunity and one more blown save. Though Chapman had an additional 6 holds that needs to be calculated into the equation, since one of his blown saves came in a hold situation prior to him being closer.
Frankly, I'm not even sure about Broxton the Red. It's hard to be confident in any closer when you had Chapman in 2012. Nobody would be that dominant.
The solace, to me, is Hoover. If Brox has trouble, I could see Hoover moving into the closer position. He has the stuff.
The other point is that Chapman could still wind up closing. It's a long shot but Walt said Aroldis might begin the season in the pen (to keep innings down) and if that happens, who knows. Leake could start off hot and the Reds might not change things.
And, of course, they could use Marshall although I think he's better as a set up man for a number of reasons.
So there are back up plans, even with no additional personnel.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Are we sure that save percentage is the best indication of overall RP performance?
I am all behind moving Chapman to the rotation, but I don't think counting stats are the best way to gauge whether or not his replacement(s) will be successful. In fact, one of the main problems I have with the Broxton signing is that it seems to be mostly based on the "proven closer" dictum with no reference to actual projections for performance for next year. My hunch is that prior to throwing away an additional $21 million on Broxton, Marshall and Hoover were already equal if not better candidates for the closer position on the roster -- and the team threw away some money for a clichéd "need" that was greatly exaggerated.
The only convincing counter-argument I've seen on other threads is see is that Walt is constructing a "Dusty proof" roster, and part of that involves getting said "proven closer." But that's another argument -- and mostly just makes me think the Reds need a new manager.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
No, but what he's doing does make some sense.
Despite Chapman's dominance, the fact is, he blew almost the same amount of saves as Cordero (who was anything but dominant) two year ago.
That tells you pretty much all you need to know about closers and value-- if used as both Cordero and Chapman (mostly) were.
Broxton can likely close at that same level in 2012, thereby saving Chapman's dominance for another role-- that of fifth starter.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
Did I ever push for a "Guns of Broxton" nickname? And if I didn't, why not?
If you're the opposing team, you feel more comfortable about coming back against Broxton or Cordero than you did Chapman. Last year when the Cards were down in the 9th, I was at the point of turning off the TV because it was over. Now, I'll watch with anticipation against a guy (Broxton) who've the Cardinals have had decent success off of. I would think that mentality goes for a lot of teams. Rather than facing a guy who is nearly unhittable, they are now more comfortable being down in the 9th against Broxton.
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