Keith Law looks at traded prospects

[GIDP]

So your only take is that prospects dont pan out so who cares if we are selling ours off for less than other people are? I think the problem most people have is that when you trade something you should get fair value for them in return. I think people see what others were giving up and then saw what we were getting in comparison and are kinda upset about it, especially considering where we are in the grande scheme of things. We havent even got into the discussion about how we didnt have anyone else bidding for Rolen or that he had a no trade clause that unless he was coming back to the midwest he probably wouldnt have oked.

[Caveat Emperor]

So your only take is that prospects dont pan out so who cares if we are selling ours off for less than other people are? I think the problem most people have is that when you trade something you should get fair value for them in return.

And my response we be that we can go round-n-round about what "fair value" is for a prospect. Fair value is what the market values a particular prospect at. As I said, Cleveland/Oakland/Whoever might not have liked Stewart -- teams have different things they look for. Maybe they didn't like his mechanics. Maybe they thought he wouldn't make it as a starter because of his secondary offerings. Who knows. For that reason, I say it's foolhardy to chide a team for not making a "better deal."

Further, you have to consider that we sent salary BACK to Toronto in the form of Edwin Encarnacion (arguably even worse salary than Rolen, since Encarnacion has no natural position in the infield and can't hit enough to DH or play OF) AND received cash with the deal for Rolen. That probably necessitated sending more value to the Jays than would've been the case if we had taken Rolen straight out. I have to imagine that the price for Rolen would've been significantly less if the Reds had been willing to assume his entire 2009 + 2010 salary obligations.

[mac624]

I think some are forgetting that we also got 6 million back from Toronto as well as Rolen, so that is why Stewart was in the trade. Doesn't make it that much easier to swallow I'm sure, but that's the justification of it.

I don't know, I hated losing Stewart, but I'm not not that disappointed as most here. I guess I'm still a glass is half full kind of guy.

[BEETTLEBUG]

How do you it was 6 mil didn't public knew that!

[GIDP]

So what everyone is saying about Edwin is that Walt had to cover up his mistake by adding in good prospects. You guys are saying Edwin lowered the value of the deal. Doesnt make my view of Walt after this much better from my POV.

I cant wait for Yonder to be included in a deal with Arroyo just so someone will take more of his contract.

[joshnky]

I cant wait for Yonder to be included in a deal with Arroyo just so someone will take more of his contract.

Because that is exactly the same. Last November Redszone rated the system as follows:

Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart
Prospect #15 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect #16 - Ramon Ramirez
Prospect #17 - Zach Cozart
Prospect #18 - Matt Maloney

Now Stewart certainly flew up the charts this year after he became a starter but there is no guarantee he will succeed. Few people saw this level of success coming and it may be that the Reds FO doubted that he could continue it so they sold high on him. Possibly, the move to AAA and the bull pen was more about preserving his trade value than it was limiting his innings.

[GIDP]

Last november we had like 30 inning of Stewart in low a ball when we thought he was only going to be a reliever.

[Caveat Emperor]

So what everyone is saying about Edwin is that Walt had to cover up his mistake by adding in good prospects. You guys are saying Edwin lowered the value of the deal. Doesnt make my view of Walt after this much better from my POV.

No GM is immune to bad moves every now and then. Even Billy Beane makes mistakes. Idiocy lies in continuing with the mistake.

I give credit to Walt -- he made a dumb move offering Edwin a 2 year deal, recognized it, and acquired a better player to replace him. If he can do the same thing re: Willy Taveras this offseason, I'll be a happy man.

[GIDP]

No GM is immune to bad moves every now and then. Even Billy Beane makes mistakes. Idiocy lies in continuing with the mistake.

I give credit to Walt -- he made a dumb move offering Edwin a 2 year deal, recognized it, and acquired a better player to replace him. If he can do the same thing re: Willy Taveras this offseason, I'll be a happy man.

So should we fell better about how badly he tosses prospects into deals? Is he going to put Sulbaran in a deal to trade Taveras off next? Its just bad baseball when you are so cheap you have to sell prospects off for nothing but a few million dollars. Its not like we are getting Rolen for cheap.

[HokieRed]

No GM is immune to bad moves every now and then. Even Billy Beane makes mistakes. Idiocy lies in continuing with the mistake.

I give credit to Walt -- he made a dumb move offering Edwin a 2 year deal, recognized it, and acquired a better player to replace him. If he can do the same thing re: Willy Taveras this offseason, I'll be a happy man.

Trading can be more complex than this. Would we have made EE more movable by giving him a lower contract, thereby suggesting we don't think he's really all that valuable? I doubt it. If EE's going to be anything like a chip in a deal of the kind we made, he's got to be paid what is perceived to be fairly, otherwise it's a real red flag. I'm not saying Walt masterminded this all in advance, but only that you've got to be careful to pay guys what makes it look like they're being treated fairly. Unfortunately, as far as WT goes, I'm afraid there's no number that wouldn't set off a red flag as being too high. Only realistic thing to hope for there is that next year he sits out a quiet year as the 5th outfielder.

[GIDP]

BTW when people pull up these prospect list and say he wasnt on it in november I would like to remind them that Jay Bruce was only 76 in the BA list a year after he was drafted. Lots can change in just a short time.

[Caveat Emperor]

So should we fell better about how badly he tosses prospects into deals? Is he going to put Sulbaran in a deal to trade Taveras off next? Its just bad baseball when you are so cheap you have to sell prospects off for nothing but a few million dollars. Its not like we are getting Rolen for cheap.

I'm going to wade out of this conversation, because we're talking in circles.

You have to be honest about what you're dealing with -- they're all prospects. They're commodities to be bought and sold, and if you start getting attached to them based on the team that controls the team they happen to be playing for, you've already lost your objectivity about what they are. You keep some, you sell some, you hope you keep the right ones. The only foolhardy strategies that you can follow are holding onto all of them or selling all of them.

At the end of the day, Zach Stewart was one dude among many who are in the Reds minor league system. They've still got lots of talent floating around. They'll survive this loss, I'm sure.

[GIDP]

I'm not Keith Law but im guessing he lost his objectivity also considering its his list and not mine.

[Caveat Emperor]

I'm not Keith Law but im guessing he lost his objectivity also considering its his list and not mine.

It's a list of top players traded at the deadline -- a subset of a subset in an already inexact science.

Trust me, you shouldn't lose a second of sleep over it.

[GIDP]

It's a list of top players traded at the deadline -- a subset of a subset in an already inexact science.

Trust me, you shouldn't lose a second of sleep over it.

Nice recovery... I guess.