Come on man, you know that is not how it works. This stuff has all been calculated and published a million times.
You can't just add up the gain or loss in base runners or total bases, you have to factor in the huge value of the lost outs as well. A double play doesn't just eliminate an extra base runner -- it also wastes an extra out.
What matters is not how often something happens, but rather its effect on the outcome of the game, measured in run values or expected runs. The double plays are less frequent than strikeouts but far more harmful to the team's run expectancy. The damage from these plays hurts the team a lot more than a "productive out" helps the team. You can't trade off one productive out for one double play. That is like saying that making a donation to your local homeless shelter will cancel out the bad karma from that murder you committed. One is much worse than the other was good.
Not all double plays count as GIDPs either, in fact GIDPs are the least harmful double plays. You can line into a double play, possibly erasing a runner on 2nd or 3rd (which is worth far more than runner on 1st). You can also hit a fly ball that is caught by a fielder, then a runner tags up from 3rd and gets thrown out trying to score, which is far more harmful than multiple strikeouts. You also need to consider the fielder's choice plays where the lead runner was erased from 2nd or 3rd instead of retiring the batter, again these are far more harmful than a strikeout.
When you add up all these possible scenarios, multiply them by their gains or losses in run expectancy, then multiply it by their frequency in real MLB games you get a chart that looks like this one:
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html or this one:
http://insidethebook.com/ee/index.ph...lues_of_events
It shows that strikeouts are worth -0.31 runs while contact outs in aggregate are worth -0.30 runs, which is an extremely insignificant and negligible difference.
The "strikeouts are just another out" debate is old hat. This whole issue was settled long ago. Strikeouts are no more harmful than contact outs on average over a large sample size. Its a proven fact.
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